USDCHF—weekly chart

My short from 1.0436 stopped at breakeven and I'm just as happy to be out of it. My initial analysis last week of a long was probably correct. The pair tested 1.0400 twice last week and held. This was below what should have been strong support at 1.0422 but not egregiously so.

A drop to the short upward trend line at 1.0455 would be a nice entry point. It's at resistance now (1.0534) and just broke above a downtrend line from July 12 so it's possible. If it clears resistance then I may try a buy there as well. There will be additional resistance at 1.0586, 1.0631 and 1.0676. So there are layers of resistance fairly close together.

One thing to keep in mind is the weekly chart—there is strong negative pressure as indicated by the lower lows for the past four weeks along with the fact these were strong candles. If the pair breaks below 1.04 then 1.0350, 1.0283, 1.0138 and .9976 are all possible. However one can make a plausible case for the beginning of a wave 3 upwards. Will it begin today? Much will depend on overall attitude towards risk aversion.

Here's the weekly chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.