USDCHF—broken short-term trend line

I have a buy order in at 1.0415. The low so far this morning has been 1.0480. On the hourly chart the pair has broken an upward price trend line (from mid-July so it's a short one) and the corresponding upward RSI trend line. So I'm thinking it might drop to the daily trend line from November, 2009 at 1.0415. The double test of 1.0400 last week is key support. If that breaks, additional support is at 1.0350, 1.0283, 1.0138 and .9976.

Resistance is at 1.0560, 1.0631 and 1.0676. So even if the pair rallies it will have a fight through those layers of resistance.

There's a lot of negative pressure on the USDCHF—lower lows the last four weeks on the weekly chart, etc. It's also plausible that it's beginning a wave 3 up. We'll just have to watch and wait.

Here's the 1-hour chart:














© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

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