Wednesday, February 10, 2010

USDCAD—still sideways

The pair's rise has been neatly stopped and it's now in a range of 1.0644 to 1.0766. The four long positions I opened yesterday, stopped out at just above breakeven. I then opened two more, one at 1.0670, thinking I was getting a great price and one at 1.0707, thinking surely this correction is over. The answer seems to be, "Don't think." Obviously, both are underwater. At least I still have a long position from 1.0256 open. What's exciting is that the pair is being fought over by the bulls and the bears--this is why it's caught in this range and when it breaks out of it, up or down, the pair will have a direction. I'm actually thinking about picking up another long position at these prices since we're close to a support that needs to hold for the uptrend to remain serious. USDCAD needs to close above 1.0766 in order to show it's resuming its uptrend. A close much below 1.0625 will hint that all is not well.


1.0644 (recent lows)
1.0547/57 (Feb 3 and Jan 28 low and this needs to hold to head off a much deeper correction)


1.0771/76/81 (fib confluence, top of triangle and recent highs)
1.0848/53 (November highs)
1.0988 (Sept '09 highs)

Here's a three-hour chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

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