GBPJPY—1.4144 top?

I closed my short from 140.85 yesterday at 139.78 for +97 pips. I later entered another short at 140.27 which looked as though it was going to be stopped out and may be still, although now I've moved my stop to breakeven. I'm thinking there's going to be some bouncing around while things sort themselves out.

It still looks as though 141.44 capped the correction. This pair is overall weak with the last swing low to 138.26 deeper than the prior one at 139.31. On the three-hour chart, there's a bear pennant. It's at the bottom of this at 139.63 (the uptrend line from last week's low) so a break would signal lower lows to come. It could also climb up to the top of the pennant at 141.52 which would be significant resistance and a good place to add shorts.

I'm still expecting this pair to fulfill its price target of 130.45 from the confirmed double top in June and August if it breaks lower. As I've pointed out many times, though, GBPJPY spent most of last year in a range of 139.03 to 163.09. It's going to try to stay in this range. Let's see if it can.

Support

140.00 (round number)
139.63 (short-term uptrend line; bottom of pennant)
138.80 (recent low)
138.26 (Feb 5 low. Break of here would confirm double top of 141.42/44)
137.58 (support from 2009)
135.72 (Mar '09 low)

Resistance:

141.44 (recent high)
141.50 to 142.50 (fib confluence zone)
143.07 (February low)
144.00 (round number)
144.50 (original broken uptrend line from Jan '09 and downtrend line from Jan)

No chart because of my problems with my new version of Snag-it.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

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