Wednesday, February 2, 2011

USDCHF—looks weak

USDCHF bulls are not having a good time. Price is below the 10, 20, 50, 100 and 200 daily moving averages. The 10 EMA on the monthly chart, which has been roughly capping the last few months, is well above price at .9886. Its low so far today has been .9321, very close to the prior low at .9301. There's a short-term speed line at .9278. If there's a rally coming it better show itself soon.

I wrote at the beginning of January that there's a seasonal tendency for the USD to rally against the Swiss franc in January. Prices since 1982 show that the pair has gone up 20 times and down 9 times. Not that you could have made much money with it but this January, unbelievably enough, was number 21. It closed on Dec. 31 at .9345 and closed Jan. 31 at .9429. The high was .9784 for the month.

I also wrote that the monthly chart looks grim and it still does. The pair fell from its monthly triangle in September and then below the October doji low of .9463. Support is at .9301 and the psychological .9200 but the potential downside target for the triangle is .9072.

Only a close back inside the triangle around 1.0192 would change the longer-term outlook. Nearer term, a close above .9783 would upset the bears since there were probably a fair number of shorts established in the .9450 to .9500 range.

Here's the monthly chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

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