AUDUSD—triangle

On the daily and three-hour chart, one can observe an obvious triangle. From the Elliott perspective, price entered the triangle from an uptrend. Therefore, price should break upwards. If it does so, 1.0307 is the target (453 pips added to the breakout point of the triangle). There is an unconfirmed double bottom in January (.9804 on 1/11 and .9833 on 1/20). It will be confirmed if price breaks above 1.0077. Its price target is 1.0350. So there are two price targets within pips of each other. 1.0364 is also where some resistance lines come in (i.e. see the prior post for the weekly chart—the upper wedge line ends there).

On the three-hour chart, one can observe a diamond pattern. When these patterns succeed, price often moves rapidly. A break upward, though, would bump its head on fib confluence at .9974 but the real interest will be in price behavior if the pair approaches 1.0022 and 1.0083 (.618 of the move from 1.0257 to .9804). If it slices through those, then expect an attempt on 1.0183, 1.0257, and price targets in the 1.03 area. Failure from the triangle targets .9916, .9867, .9804, .9740, .9691and .9538.

Here's a three-hour chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.