Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Will I get back in AUD/USD?

As I wrote in the last post, my profit target in the Ozzie was hit overnight. This morning the pair reached a high of .8729, a high not seen since the summer of 2008. Now I’m wondering how and when I can get back into the pair. I’ve posted the three hour chart below.

Remember that the consolidation range was.8543 to .8676. I pointed out in my post on Monday that false and premature breakouts are not uncommon with rectangles. One obvious strategy is to wait to see if the price goes back to .8676. I’d then go long with a tight stop. This approach requires watching the price action carefully at the time it approaches that price. Carefully, means I’d look for bullish signs before jumping in. Another entry point, assuming the breakout was premature, is to wait until it reaches the three-hour uptrend line which is also at the point of the 62 EMA. This is at .8587 now but of course that could change a bit by time price gets back to it.

There is bearish divergence between price and RSI right now. I need to watch that, too. Here’s the three hour chart:

As usual, I’ll just have to continue to study price action.

None of the above is a trade recommendation of course. Remember that trading involves substantial risk.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2009. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

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