AUDUSD—standing aside for now
I’ve been a bit buffeted by the Ozzie during the last several days. I’ve been out at breakeven or tiny little profits in its sideways movements. I stopped out overnight at .8770 with a loss of 48 pips. This morning I took a closer look.
From the longer term charts—monthly, weekly, and daily—we’re still in an uptrend although the movement has been strongly sideways the last couple of weeks. Lately it’s been waffling with ranges, false or premature breakouts from ranges, negative divergences, etc. Now it looks as though it may be pushing up which is what I thought it would do in the first place.
Why, I ask myself, would a pair behave this way? I mean besides the obvious reason that nobody can make up their mind about what to do—is the sky falling or is it not? Maybe that is the reason but what else comes to mind? I think about what Frost and Prechter wrote in their book, Elliott Wave Principle (New Classics Library, 10th ed. 2005), about B waves on page 81:
B waves are phonies…sucker plays, bull traps, speculators’ paradise….[They’re] rarely technically strong, and are virtually always doomed to complete retracement by wave C. If the analyst can easily say to himself, “There’s something wrong with this market,” chances are it’s a B wave.
That’s what I’ve been thinking to myself—there’s something wrong with this market. Of course there may be something wrong with me and my analysis but I’m not going there right now.
OK. What do I have? A belief we’re in an uptrend although Dow Theory tells me it could be an intermediate correction. A market that seems unclear. What choice do I have? I can only stand aside. As Gann wrote, if you “don’t know what to do, there is but one thing to do. Get out and wait until you know there is a definite trend.” When I see something more clearly and have a good entry point, I’ll trade it.
I’m out of this pair I bought at 1.0288 and have a short on from near the top of the channel at 1.0386. Remember that yesterday I wrote it could bump its head and scoot back to its lower trend line? Well it did. Look at the candles as it approached the top of the channel on the hourly chart:
Now it’s falling out of its channel. Is this a fake move prior to all the news today? (ADP, GDP, Corporate Profits, and CPI). Look at how RSI is dipping. Note the negative divergence. All this is not good. I am, after all, in an overall downtrend as I pointed out yesterday. I’m uncertain here, too, but will stay in the trade until I’m stopped out at profit. Hmm. There seems to be a theme of uncertainty this morning.
I stopped out overnight with 100 pips profit. Not bad, but what’s up with the Euro? I’m analyzing it now and will post later. Hopefully I won’t have to say I’m uncertain, LOL.
Thank goodness I don’t have to say I’m uncertain! Alas, there’s no trade at the moment. I consider the market to be contracting and I’m waiting to sell, hopefully at or above 1.6150. I’ll post more, later.
None of the above is a trade recommendation. These are just my early morning thoughts. Remember that trading involves substantial risk.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2009. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.