Friday, June 10, 2011

EURUSD—met H&S price target

Euro met the head and shoulders price target of 1.4419. In doing so, it has dropped to a low of 1.4402, breaking below both a descending triangle on the hourly chart and a short-term uptrend line. My short position, even from the poorer entry of 1.4581, has done well and is still on. Still, this is near support so some profit-taking at +170 pips is in order. A .382 pullback of the current move up was at 1.4419 and the monthly pivot was at 1.4445.

The next target is the .50 retracement at 1.4334. A close for the week below 1.4378 is bearish.

Here is the hourly chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.


  1. Hi Dianne, I'm an individual fx trader and I've been following your blog for over a year. It is brilliant. I am surprised why there aren't any comments?

    Ken Kam

  2. Hi Dianne, what is the significance of 1.4378? I have looked at the chart from all angles but cannot see the significance of this figure. (Except for Elliot Wave count - I can't quite get the hang of that, its too ambiguous).
    If you don't mind, you can reply to my email address directly - I would really appreciate it, you are my teacher in advanced technical analysis!


  3. Thank you, Ken. There are a few comments here and there and I very much appreciate your comment. When I think about not doing this blog anymore (which I have been thinking about a lot lately) that's one of the reasons. My purpose in undertaking it was that I wanted to offer something without the hype, selling, and often dubious, technical analysis that many so-called traders offer.
    As to your question, I have a few reasons I suggested 1.4378. It's just under an old confluence price. (calculated from various fib levels over the year on the shorter term charts). Another reason is that the price has played an important role for Euro as parity. In some cases, it is an average of other price action. However, if you look at the three-hour chart between May 9 and 10, price topped there three times and on May 11, stayed just above there at confluence. On April 11 on the four-hour chart, price bottomed there and continued to hover there over the next couple of days. Going back to 9/4/2009, that was a high. Price isn't random and there's a reason Euro is drawn to that number. I also place this within the context of some of the cycle work I've been doing.