Friday, March 4, 2011

Currency market today

In a recap of the week so far as of 10:15AM EST:

AUDUSD reached 1.0202 Monday but has had rough going since then, reaching a low of 1.0075 this morning, lower than the 3/2 low at 1.0086. However, this could be the beginning of a downward slanting rectangle where price will consolidate. The upper boundary of this (drawn on the four-hour chart) is 1.0185. The 50 daily moving average is at 1.0041 and the 100 is at .9958. Aussie hasn't had a weekly close below parity since the end of January and no daily close below parity since February 15. Let's see how it closes today.

EURGBP has had a good week, climbing from its weekly close last Friday of .8533 to a high of .8600 this morning. This is resistance so what it does here is going to set the tone for future price action. There's a potential inverted head and shoulders pattern that requires a break.8672 for confirmation. A close greater than .8600 this week would be bullish.

EURJPY finally climbed above 115.69 today, touching 116.01! That's been a long time coming. Ideally, the pair will close above 115.69 this week. If it does so, that's very bullish. Price is above the 200 daily moving average and the pair is above a resistance line on longer-term charts. However, 116.14 is the upper boundary of the bear flag on the monthly chart I posted the other day so I wouldn’t be surprised to see some consolidation take place. Definitely a pair to buy on a retracement, perhaps to 114.50.

EURUSD pushed on up this morning, touching 1.4007, a big psychological barrier. Price targets are present on up to 1.4060 where there's some good resistance. A weekly close greater than 1.3862 is all it's going to take to maintain bullish momentum for now. There's good support around 1.3880/50 so anyone not already long might find an entry at that level.

GBPJPY spiked to 135.24 this morning. February's high was 135.54 so that's the price to exceed. However, there's formidable resistance here, both on short- and long-term charts. It could push somewhat higher to 136.53 (the point where wave C would equal A on an ABC structure off the low of 125.51). At that point, though, I'd expect to see a nice retracement, possibly to 129.50/25. This is .618 of the move up from 125.51and the prior swing low at 129.52. Obviously, a close above 135.54 would be strongly bullish. Coupled with the break recently over a long-term trend line, one would want to be long. There's potential for price to move up to 141.19 (confluence) and 145.98, last April's high.

GBPUSD had done a nice job this week, taking over its 1.63 resistance with a spike to 1.6344 yesterday. 1.6465 is possible in the near term. While a weekly close above 1.6300 would be nicely bullish, it might be a lot to expect at this point. The pair dropped to a low of 1.6236 today. The daily 10-SMA is at 1.6225; the 20 at 1.6168. Price needs to stay above those at least.

USDCAD continues to sink. Gee, that's what I wrote that last Friday. Well it's true again this week with a new low of .9684. This is below the 2008 low of .9711 so the bears are fierce. I also wrote last week that below .9711 there's not a lot stopping it until it reaches .9417. The triangle price target was .9549. A break in oil prices downward would relieve some pressure on this pair. How likely is that?

USDCHF managed a low of .9202 this week, a real bummer for those expecting the USD to rally anytime soon. As I wrote last week, I prepared charts earlier this year that show it could get to 90 and it seems to be on its way. The high this week was .9331, quite a bit lower than last week's high of .9506. This was just above a prior support level so it's strong resistance. I will note that the sentiment seems extreme. When everyone's bearish or bullish, there aren't many people left to continue to drive price in the direction everyone expects it to go. I wrote the other day that 75.62 is do or die support for the USD index. It hasn't gotten there yet.

USDJPY is caught in a narrow range from 80.94 to 83.97. A close outside those boundaries would be significant. Until then, trade the range.

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