Thursday, February 10, 2011


AUDUSD is stalling. Only until it can break above 1.0257 are the bulls going to be vindicated that the uptrend is in force but it just can't seem to quite get there, reaching only 1.0200 last Friday.

A look at the daily chart shows an upward rectangle within a downward sloping rectangle. In addition, if you study the 1.0183 and the 1.0257 tops, you see they're sharp. This last set of topping days is more rounded. People refer to this as Adam and Eve tops--I've never noticed that it makes much difference in overall performance but the rounding does suggest a more gradual drying up and tends to be bearish. Regardless, until there's a close below .9804 or better, .9538, the double or triple top is not confirmed. The bottom of the smaller rectangle is .9926; the lower boundary of the larger one is .9760.

Here's the daily chart:

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