Tuesday, August 31, 2010


The Swiss franc is blowing all the currencies away—the Euro, Cable, and the USD.

On the monthly USDCHF chart one can see prices coiling. This is not uncommon with other currencies and it's normal after major moves up or down. USDCHF is heading back to the bottom which isn't far away at 1.0020. There's support between here and there at 1.0130. This is a Fib confluence zone as well as the low for 2010. This year hasn't been good for this pair and it's possible it will break out downward with the symmetrical triangle being a continuation pattern.

But this is no sure thing and before anyone gets too cozy with the idea that the USD going down the tubes, there's positive divergence with RSI on the daily and three-hour charts. If it does rise it will run into substantial resistance—the 1.03/04 range and then the 1.06 to 1.0675 range. Above that is the top of the triangle around 1.15.

Here's the monthly chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

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