Euro and USDCHF

As I wrote yesterday, I had little faith the Euro would continue its little climb. What is wrong with the Euro bulls? Who cares? To be fair it is up over last Friday’s close at 1.4576 but beneath the close two weeks ago at 1.4689. So perhaps a little sideway action until, 1) the Euro bulls get their act together; or, 2) the pair drops of its own weight. My long stopped out just over breakeven. I shorted at 1.4779, a position I prefer at the current time. I’ve lightened that by half at 50 pips profit this morning. If you did the same, set your stop to just over breakeven. It’s now down to support at 1.4720 so it may attempt a bounce from there. We’ll have to see. As I wrote yesterday, should the Euro manage to decisively close above 1.4868 then I’ll start looking for long positions. Until it does there’s no sense throwing up another chart.

The short in USDCHF I wrote about yesterday stopped out at a small profit. I went long and unloaded part of my position this morning at 75 pips. Whatever your opinion of this pair (and I know many think a long position is insane), a buy for fast pips was a low risk trade since it dropped near the bottom again. Since its low in September was 1.0187 and I bought at 1.0241, there’s not a lot of risk. I put my stop below the uptrend line from 1.0187.

Note three things on the drop to 1.0241. First, it hesitated near its prior lows from earlier in the week. Second, the black candle low went to the uptrend line and quickly retreated. Third, there was some divergence between price and RSI for the prior 8 hourly candles. However it is at another resistance level.

After the fact, it’s also significant (to me) that the RSI never went to the oversold line. Momentum is slowing perhaps? Why would that be? Perhaps the dollar bears are just tired. It’s been a busy week for them. The USD has certainly taken a fall lately. As the Wall Street Journal wrote this morning, “There are, as yet, no hints the weakening dollar is ringing alarm bells in Washington—and that’s unlikely to change unless the decline turns into a confidence-shattering crash, a possibility that some analysts have been predicting for years.” Isn’t that a cheery note with which to go into the weekend?

Here’s the USDCHF 1-hour chart:


© Dianne Fecteau, 2009. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.