The USD is falling after the weaker than expected numbers. Be careful, though. This isn't about currency strength in the Euro so much as it is about the USD. I don't talk much about fundamental factors in this blog but the reality is that Eurozone has higher unemployment than the US. More importantly, unemployment is a lagging factor in an economy—it improves last. So you can't make firm conclusions about things just from this. Well, maybe you can draw one conclusion—the market is full of kneejerk reactions to news. I'm not suggesting the US economy is out of the woods by any means. But even if you believe the Euro, AUD, whatever, will continue up, use tight stops. Some significant resistance levels are being approached that I've blogged about earlier in the week.
See you Monday.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Friday, December 3, 2010
AUDUSD—update
The pair has reached a high of .9864 (as of 8:58AM EST) which is 4 pips above the 50% retracement of 1.0183 to .9537. Let's see if it can scale it.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Markets Waiting for NFP
There's not going to be a lot of action until after NFP. I don't trade news events (nor should you—that's short term trading taken to the absurd) but the results should give some insights. An experienced trader once told me that if a commodity (i.e. the USD) doesn't fall on bearish news or rise on bullish news then the news is not what it appears.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
AUDUSD—rebounding
After touching a low of .9537, the pair bounced smartly to a high this morning of .9824. This pair loves to go up. So even though there's some bearish pressure, back up it goes. It looks as though it may make it past resistance of .9817 and .9853 (needs a close above on at least an hourly chart). If so, eyes are on .9954. Why? From the 1.0183 high the pair dropped to .9725. It then bounced to .9954 which was a 50% retracement and failed. This suggested a secondary top. So if the pair gets back there, interest will be high.
I went long at .9602 earlier this week after a hammer and a bullish engulfing candle on the hourly chart and because I'd identified support at .9540 (see 11/29 blog). I meant to update the blog but time got away from me and, as I've written before, I can't post everything or I'd never get any trading done. I just took partial profits at +203 pips. At that time I suspected it might go as low as .9408 before rallying. Obviously it didn't. We'll have to see what happens at .9954 if it gets there. It probably won't do so this week.
So being long, do I have any bearish sentiment toward AUDUSD? Yes, I do. As it is now (at 7:30AM EST), the pair is going to have a weekly close with a lower high and lower low than last week. This comes after a week with an outside candle so the overall look is bearish. I've also been comparing AUD to CAD and AUD looks weaker. Finally, on the weekly chart below, you'll notice three uptrend lines, each starting from a higher low. This won't continue forever and this most recent pullback came close to violating the most recent one. RSI also has some interesting behavior, as to numeric levels and as to trending. But as I wrote this past Monday, "the size of the rally from the 2008 low is significant." I've made a lot of money going long in this pair over the past year and it's an overall uptrend until proven otherwise.
Here's the weekly chart. My trades don't show on the weekly chart as I use a different charting package for longer term charting. I'm looking to make a change in 2011 to that approach but we'll see. One gets in a rut with one's broker.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
I went long at .9602 earlier this week after a hammer and a bullish engulfing candle on the hourly chart and because I'd identified support at .9540 (see 11/29 blog). I meant to update the blog but time got away from me and, as I've written before, I can't post everything or I'd never get any trading done. I just took partial profits at +203 pips. At that time I suspected it might go as low as .9408 before rallying. Obviously it didn't. We'll have to see what happens at .9954 if it gets there. It probably won't do so this week.
So being long, do I have any bearish sentiment toward AUDUSD? Yes, I do. As it is now (at 7:30AM EST), the pair is going to have a weekly close with a lower high and lower low than last week. This comes after a week with an outside candle so the overall look is bearish. I've also been comparing AUD to CAD and AUD looks weaker. Finally, on the weekly chart below, you'll notice three uptrend lines, each starting from a higher low. This won't continue forever and this most recent pullback came close to violating the most recent one. RSI also has some interesting behavior, as to numeric levels and as to trending. But as I wrote this past Monday, "the size of the rally from the 2008 low is significant." I've made a lot of money going long in this pair over the past year and it's an overall uptrend until proven otherwise.
Here's the weekly chart. My trades don't show on the weekly chart as I use a different charting package for longer term charting. I'm looking to make a change in 2011 to that approach but we'll see. One gets in a rut with one's broker.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Thursday, December 2, 2010
EURGBP—correcting
EURGBP is approaching the .8500 resistance which is the downward trend line from October. As I blogged yesterday, November's monthly chart closed with a completed evening star pattern which formed near price resistance—the downtrend line from 2008. This is bearish and .8500 is a short opportunity as long as momentum doesn't increase. There is positive divergence with RSI which is of some concern. If it closes above .8500 on a daily basis, then the next resistance is .8543 (50%) and .8595 (fib confluence and 11/22 high).
Support is at .8390 (9/21 and today's low), .8350/35, .8204, .8068 and .7856.
Here's the daily chart.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Support is at .8390 (9/21 and today's low), .8350/35, .8204, .8068 and .7856.
Here's the daily chart.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—corrective
Euro has been choppy this morning because of the ECB announcement and the Trichet comments. This isn't unusual. Before that Euro had corrected to a high of 1.3217 (missing my profit stop by one pip). It then sunk to 1.3060 which is a .618 retracement of the rise from the Nov. 30th of 1.2969. In its rise it cleared the 1.3150 resistance and had four consecutive hourly closes above that. It needs more, preferably a daily close. If this happens, then I'd expect price to retest the uptrend line from June at 1.3315 or the 1.3335 former support. Only above there would I expect to see a move back to the 1.35 area. I don't think that's going to happen.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPJPY—resistance and above
As I wrote yesterday, it looks as though this pair is rallying within a C leg of an ABC correction. It did reach 131.77 this morning, within two pips of my hourly target of a C wave. It has since fallen back to a low of 131.11 where it's trying to base. There are many interesting geometric shapes on the shorter term charts so we'll have to see where this goes. While one can try shorts in this area up to 131.90 (see yesterday's blog), another good shorting opportunity is 134.17. It's important to keep the psychology of the market in mind—people see weakness in this pair based on the overall trend and are looking to short. However those that shorted the break of 130 a couple of days ago are hurting a bit. If the pair moves beyond 132, the pain increases and they'll start buying back their shorts. That feeds more upward price movement. At some point, though, the bears will probably win out given the big downtrend. All you can do is pick shorting points that make sense and go in with tight stops. The potential gains are great—probably down to 120 and potentially lower, a lot lower. For a weekly chart, the one I think most relavent, ee yesterday's blog.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
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