Friday, October 29, 2010
EURUSD—seasonality
A short look backwards (10 years) shows that Euro has gone up in November in eight of the last ten years. 10 data points does not a statistically reliable study make but it's something to be aware of as one goes into the new month next week.
AUDUSD—monthly
A look at the monthly chart shows that AUDUSD printed a higher high and higher low than last month. So the uptrend seems intact. However, note the candle for the month (and it's doubtful it will change much today). It's known as a spinning top with its small body and is a clue that the prior uptrend may be losing steam. No surprise there, right? The pair has had a steep upward climb and it's doubtful it can continue without at least a period of consolidation. I've placed arrows over other spinning tops on the ten-year, monthly chart below. It doesn't mean a steep decline but they do tend to show a slowing down in price increases. The spinning top could become part of another formation, i.e. an evening star but we'll have to wait for November to see this.
On the monthly chart, one also sees negative divergence with RSI. Divergence has been frequent on many charts and it's never a signal in and of itself. This divergence has been taking place since the lows of 2008 so how credible is it? More important to me recently has been that RSI hasn't dropped to bearish levels, even during the May and June dips. Until it does this, I consider the overall uptrend intact.
The daily chart (not shown) shows a corrective pattern taking place as do shorter-term charts. I'd expect to see some sort of correction down to .9542/9406 so I'm looking to short this pair in the short term. If the pair falls below .9406, I'd believe that a major high was in and that there would be additional moves down as it completed a larger ABC correction on the monthly chart. But it's too early to be thinking about that now.
Here's the monthly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
On the monthly chart, one also sees negative divergence with RSI. Divergence has been frequent on many charts and it's never a signal in and of itself. This divergence has been taking place since the lows of 2008 so how credible is it? More important to me recently has been that RSI hasn't dropped to bearish levels, even during the May and June dips. Until it does this, I consider the overall uptrend intact.
The daily chart (not shown) shows a corrective pattern taking place as do shorter-term charts. I'd expect to see some sort of correction down to .9542/9406 so I'm looking to short this pair in the short term. If the pair falls below .9406, I'd believe that a major high was in and that there would be additional moves down as it completed a larger ABC correction on the monthly chart. But it's too early to be thinking about that now.
Here's the monthly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—waffling
My short from 1.3882 yesterday stopped out at 1.3912 for -30 pips. The pair rose to 1.3951 and then turned down again. The high of 1.3951 was just above the 1.3948 I wrote about yesterday as a possible stop point if one felt the 1.3905 was too tight. It was also a .618 retracement of the most recent leg down from 1.4080 to 1.3759. Because of this, I removed almost all my channels from my chart and redrew the current sideways action as a triangle (In Elliott theory, a triangle's legs often bear a fib relationship to each other). If this triangle is the correct interpretation then there's not going to be any serious move down—last week's low of 1.3697 was it. Instead Euro should thrust upward from the triangle to at least 1.4455.
Does 1.4455 ring a bell among any readers? As I wrote on October 11 (and before that):
The .618 correction of the entire move down from 1.6041 is at 1.4450. A downtrend line drawn from that 1.6041 high comes in at 1.4557. The high this past January 13th was 1.4579.
This is compelling. The problem is that there is also a compelling case to be made for a drop as well. For example, on the three-hour chart on which I'm drawing the triangle, there is negative divergence (higher lows but RSI lows staying flat). In fact, there is negative divergence going back well before this triangle.
I have two choices as a trader. First, I can sit it out. Second, I can take a position in line with one set of arguments or the other. If I believe the triangle/downtrend line/fib retracement to 1.4450 then I go long at some point towards the bottom of the triangle. If I believe the case for there being a high, I wait for it to rise again to the shorter-term downtrend line.
Decisions; decisions. For the moment, though, the wisest course is to stay flat. There are opposing arguments with good evidence for each and the pair is obviously consolidating. If price approaches 1.40, it will be important to watch momentum.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Does 1.4455 ring a bell among any readers? As I wrote on October 11 (and before that):
The .618 correction of the entire move down from 1.6041 is at 1.4450. A downtrend line drawn from that 1.6041 high comes in at 1.4557. The high this past January 13th was 1.4579.
This is compelling. The problem is that there is also a compelling case to be made for a drop as well. For example, on the three-hour chart on which I'm drawing the triangle, there is negative divergence (higher lows but RSI lows staying flat). In fact, there is negative divergence going back well before this triangle.
I have two choices as a trader. First, I can sit it out. Second, I can take a position in line with one set of arguments or the other. If I believe the triangle/downtrend line/fib retracement to 1.4450 then I go long at some point towards the bottom of the triangle. If I believe the case for there being a high, I wait for it to rise again to the shorter-term downtrend line.
Decisions; decisions. For the moment, though, the wisest course is to stay flat. There are opposing arguments with good evidence for each and the pair is obviously consolidating. If price approaches 1.40, it will be important to watch momentum.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Thursday, October 28, 2010
Dull market
After early movement, today, the pairs are basically just hanging out. Questions about quantitative easing seem to be weighing on big decisions. Although the USD is somewhat weaker today, it hasn't exactly collapsed. I'm going to use the rest of the day to catch up on charts.
EURUSD—Back at retracement point
My short from 1.3882 on Tuesday profit-stopped out at 1.3851 in yesterday's bounce for +31 pips. I have taken another short trade this morning at 1.3882, the same price as the original. My reasons are:
1) Euro is back at the .618 retracement (Nov. to June) that it fell through on its descent this week
2) This corresponds with a corrective channel top
3) It's nearing the 50% (1.3905) retracement of the move down from 1.4080
4) Within an Elliott Wave interpretation, a wave three is beginning
5) It's near a psychological 1.39 price point
6) The daily 10 SMA at 1.3896 and the daily 20 SMA at 1.3901 add to potential resistance
The 1.3905 provides me with a potential stop and reverse point (although that’s a very tight stop). Another stop point is 1.3948, last week's channel line I was trading off of. Why would one reverse? There's a potential ABC correction on the daily chart. In addition, we've had a higher low (first low of 1.3697 then 1.3794). If it clears the .618 of the longer term move down and clears the 1.3905, there's a chance at another high. I'd expect failure at 1.4035 (the downward resistance line) or at a retest of 1.4159 or perhaps slightly above.
So, even if this trade doesn't succeed, it has the elements of a good trade—reasons for entering, price points that will hint I may be wrong and even a reversal strategy. If I'm right and price starts down, expect support at 1.3794 (yesterday's low) and 1.3697. A move below 1.3587 or 1.3500 would be signs it was in a new leg down, probably to 1.3375/35.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
1) Euro is back at the .618 retracement (Nov. to June) that it fell through on its descent this week
2) This corresponds with a corrective channel top
3) It's nearing the 50% (1.3905) retracement of the move down from 1.4080
4) Within an Elliott Wave interpretation, a wave three is beginning
5) It's near a psychological 1.39 price point
6) The daily 10 SMA at 1.3896 and the daily 20 SMA at 1.3901 add to potential resistance
The 1.3905 provides me with a potential stop and reverse point (although that’s a very tight stop). Another stop point is 1.3948, last week's channel line I was trading off of. Why would one reverse? There's a potential ABC correction on the daily chart. In addition, we've had a higher low (first low of 1.3697 then 1.3794). If it clears the .618 of the longer term move down and clears the 1.3905, there's a chance at another high. I'd expect failure at 1.4035 (the downward resistance line) or at a retest of 1.4159 or perhaps slightly above.
So, even if this trade doesn't succeed, it has the elements of a good trade—reasons for entering, price points that will hint I may be wrong and even a reversal strategy. If I'm right and price starts down, expect support at 1.3794 (yesterday's low) and 1.3697. A move below 1.3587 or 1.3500 would be signs it was in a new leg down, probably to 1.3375/35.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
AUDUSD—weakening
On the three-hour chart AUDUSD has fallen below a second channel along with RSI falling below its uptrend line. One can see a completed ABC correction with C approximately equal to A. This has taken place within a bigger correction. As with other pairs, AUDUSD has been overextended and is due for a bigger correction. Support is at .9758 and .9662. Buyers should come in at .9662 and there should be quite the battle. However the risk is there for additional drops, possibly down to .9406.
I'm having trouble posting the chart.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
I'm having trouble posting the chart.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
AUDUSD—weakening
On the three-hour chart AUDUSD has fallen below a second channel along with RSI falling below its uptrend line. One can see a completed ABC correction with C approximately equal to A. This has taken place within a bigger correction. As with other pairs, AUDUSD has been overextended and is due for a bigger correction. Support is at .9758 and .9662. Buyers should come in at .9662 and there should be quite the battle. However the risk is there for additional drops, possibly down to .9406.
I'm having trouble posting the chart.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
I'm having trouble posting the chart.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—15-minute chart
You can see some ominous signs on the shorter-term chart. First, is the slight rounding pattern at the most recent highs (the green line). This often hints at a drying up of demand. Second is that penetration of the .618 retracement of the November to June drop. The attempt to retake it appears to have failed, at least in the short term. Third are the long bearish candles compared to the shorter white candles. The one thing that is positive for the Euro on this chart is the slightly positive divergence.
Here’s the 15-minute chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Here’s the 15-minute chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USDJPY—Bounce
USDJPY has bounced to a high of 81.41 this morning. I wrote yesterday that it wouldn’t surprise me to see a drop to the historic low of 79.95 but it hasn’t happened yet. I also wrote that resistance will be at 81.92/97 (10/19 and 10/13 highs), 82.88 (9/14 low) and 83.40 (daily downtrend line). It’s getting near that first resistance so let’s see what happens.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—at a tipping point
Clearly, the Euro didn’t move back to the top of the channel I described yesterday. My long trade stopped out for -30 pips. Because I was busy, I didn’t stop and reverse although that would have made sense in retrospect. The clue was the break below the channel line and then a retest of that line before it began to fall. Trading takes attention and if you can’t offer that, you can’t really trade. This happens.
Now it has tipped below the .618 retracement line of the November to June drop which is not great news. It looks as though it’s making a feeble attempt to retest that line. Any failure is a good place to short. The next supports are at 1.3858, 1.3822 and 1.3698 (Oct. 15th low). Since October 7th there have been three highs—one at 1.4029; one at 1.4159; and finally yesterday’s, 1.4080. This is a potential triple top pattern that would be confirmed below 1.3698. The price target would be 1.3237. I think a more realistic price target is 1.3550 or 1.3512 (the 50% retracement of November to June). Below this is 1.3335. This would complete an overdue correction.
If the Euro manages to rally, the bulls need a clean close above that .618 line at 1.3895 and need to retake the channel line at 1.4008. Then Euro needs to quit its dithering and overcome resistance at 1.4080 and 1.4159. Only then will newer highs look possible.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Now it has tipped below the .618 retracement line of the November to June drop which is not great news. It looks as though it’s making a feeble attempt to retest that line. Any failure is a good place to short. The next supports are at 1.3858, 1.3822 and 1.3698 (Oct. 15th low). Since October 7th there have been three highs—one at 1.4029; one at 1.4159; and finally yesterday’s, 1.4080. This is a potential triple top pattern that would be confirmed below 1.3698. The price target would be 1.3237. I think a more realistic price target is 1.3550 or 1.3512 (the 50% retracement of November to June). Below this is 1.3335. This would complete an overdue correction.
If the Euro manages to rally, the bulls need a clean close above that .618 line at 1.3895 and need to retake the channel line at 1.4008. Then Euro needs to quit its dithering and overcome resistance at 1.4080 and 1.4159. Only then will newer highs look possible.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Monday, October 25, 2010
EURUSD—possible retest of 1.4159
From an Elliott Wave perspective, one would expect more moves down although within any reasonable interpretation there’s a chance for a move back to at least the 1.4159 top and possibly a bit higher. I like the possibility of a move up to 1.4238, the top of the current small channel. As a result, I just bought a small position at 1.3978.
Overall, though, my bias is bearish and I’ll be watching for a sign of another topside failure. Going below last week’s 1.3698 low would indicate additional moves down. A move below 1.3587 or 1.3500 would be extremely negative.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Overall, though, my bias is bearish and I’ll be watching for a sign of another topside failure. Going below last week’s 1.3698 low would indicate additional moves down. A move below 1.3587 or 1.3500 would be extremely negative.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPJPY—New low
The Guppie has dipped below the May 20th low of 126.73 to 126.46 so far today. This pair’s average trading range (ATR) recently has been 132 pips. It has already had that move today so I wouldn’t expect more downward moves today. I suspect more lows ahead but would like to see a rally before shorting at this point. 127.22, the lower channel line, or 127.89, recent highs, are both possibilities. Shorting at that level would still require a tight stop as there is also the potential for a rally to the 130 area. At that point, I'd expect sellers to crush it.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USDJPY—Near long-term lows
The low for this pair in 1995 was 79.95 and it has touched 80.41 so far today. Given past behavior in other pairs related to the Swiss Franc, it wouldn’t surprise me to see it swoon to the 79.95 or possibly 79.60, the bottom daily channel line, and then bounce sharply—or maybe not so sharply if the dollar doesn’t begin to rally. However, the move down is rather intense and overly dramatic and has been going on for five consecutive weeks. There’s positive divergence on the daily chart. Some sort of rally is probable. Depending on one’s risk tolerance, one could try a long around the 80.00/.50 level since the stop can be tight. More conservatively, one could wait for a touch of 79.96/60 and a rally. Resistance will be at 81.92/97 (10/19 and 10/13 highs), 82.88 (9/14 low) and 83.40 (daily downtrend line). At any of those points sellers will probably enter the market.
Here’s a daily chart.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Here’s a daily chart.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USDX—Monthly
As I suspected, the USDX is holding above its uptrend line on the monthly chart, bouncing from its low this month of 7614 before rallying. Its low so far today is 7720. While there may be another retest of the 7614 area, possibly even somewhat lower, one can view this as the bottom of a deep correction and reasonably expect a rally. This would imply that dollar pairs (EUR/USD, GBP/USD) will decline over the next week or so. However, the dollar must get cleanly above 78.50 for this to happen.
Here’s the monthly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Here’s the monthly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
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