Friday, January 22, 2010

EURUSD—what next?

The Euro reached a high of 1.4165 in early morning trading (EST). During the current hourly candle, it has reached 1.4167. As I wrote yesterday, the 1.4150/70 area is resistance. If it makes it through this resistance, then the next likely targets are 1.4215 and then 1.4285/90, the bottom of the flag it so ingloriously fell out of Wednesday. At that point, I plan to add to my short position. Should the pair resume its fall, support is at 1.4029 (yesterday’s low). Next supports are at 1.4088, 1.3925, 1.3833, and 1.3748. I did an Elliott Wave count on the daily that suggests we’re at the start of wave 3 of 3. If so, the Euro could be in for some rather heart-stopping drops. A rise above 1.4579 would invalidate that interpretation.

Here’s the chart:


© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

USDCAD—through the 1.0525 resistance

Is this pair finally tired of mucking about at the bottom of the pond? Alas, it’s too early to say but it’s in a nice little climb this morning and has broken through the resistance at 1.0525. My long from 1.0256 is currently (7:51 AM EST) up 284 pips at 1.0540. In general, though, there’s quite a bit of resistance ahead at 1.0580/95, 1.0626, and 1.0747. Support is at 1.0465, 1.0414, 1.0336 and 1.0292 (heaven help us if it goes back there).

You can see on the three-hour chart that it dropped from overbought readings on RSI and is now pushing back there. This hints at good momentum. The drop overnight also resulted in a less steep trend line. This is positive because the steeper the trend line, the more difficult it is to maintain it. However, I still consider this trend line too steep so a bit stronger reaction would be positive. This would also provide an opportunity to add to my position depending on what price action looked like at that time.

Here’s the three-hour chart:


© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPCHF—intransigence gives way, maybe

I’ve been watching this pair all week, thinking it’s time to short, it’s time to short. GBPCHF has remained intransigent in essence by my quite logical chart analysis. Finally, it looks as though the pair may be budging a bit. I shorted yesterday at 1.6897. It went a little underwater and then just sat there like a lump. I thought about closing it before I logged off last night but the house money effect kicked in (I’ve had great profits this week and figured I could afford the loss). This is not a good way to think and reflects the general fatigue I always feel as the week winds down. Regardless, the pair has finally started down but remember it had a paltry 139-pip drop earlier in the week before it rebounded.

Should she decide to continue her drop then the lovely, potential double top (it’s not a double top until price confirms it by going below the lowest point between the two tops) suggests a move to 1.5624. Groundskeeper, open the gates and let the wild dogs run (to paraphrase the Boss)! But as he goes on to sing in that song, “none of this has happened yet.” (Livin’ in the Future on the Magic CD). There’s a strong daily uptrend line coming in at 1.6374 and 1.6325 is the trough line of the potential double top. (12/16/08 at 1.7026; 1/20 at 1.7037; low point between was 1.6325). Those price points are far more likely and I, for one, will be happy if the pair goes anywhere near there. As I wrote yesterday, this is nothing but a range trade, pure and simple.

Here’s the daily chart:


© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

Thursday, January 21, 2010

GBPJPY—correction of double top goof in last post

I marked a short term double top on the GBPJPY three-hour chart I just posted but the confirmed double top I was referring to where I said the price objective was unmet took place on the daily chart back in June and August. As I wrote in Monday’s blog:

There has been a sideways pattern in much of 2009, just as there has been with the EURJPY. The bottom of the sideways pattern is 139.03 in the spring of 2009. The pair then climbed, making a double top at 162.60/163.09 in June and August of 2009. The trough of that double top is 146.77 and the pair broke below it in September to a low of 139.71. The price target from that pattern was 130.45 (Peak to trough subtracted from trough or (146.77 – (163.09 – 146.77)).

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPJPY—enough of the triangle already

When last we looked, the Guppie was languishing inside its triangle. As I write, it has poked its little toe just below the bottom edge and is saying:

a) Hell no, I won’t go
b) Ooh, is that water cold or what?
c) It’s not that far a swim to 1.4596 (the December lows and a mere 146 pips.)

I shorted at 147.55 and have already moved my stop to breakeven and taken partial profits at +70 pips (the quickness the drop does not bode well for this pair). It has broken below its trend line (the bottom of the triangle). RSI has broken below its trend line as well. As I wrote the other day, the price objective from the confirmed double top is still unmet. The width of the triangle can also serve as a price objective. Before too much merriment commences however it needs a solid close below the long lower shadow of the just completed three-hour candle. A bounce would probably take it back to the mid-point of the triangle. We’re just going to have to wait and see what unfolds.

Here’s the three-hour chart:


© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPCHF—climbing again

GBPCHF is rising again in step with the pound improving. My short is out at breakeven. The reaction was a trifle, dropping a mere 139 pips to a low of 1.6898. Compare this to the 722 pips it gained since the January 10 low of 1.6315. It looks like it was just enough to relieve the overbought before going on to rise some more. A break of 7037 might be positive for a long although I’d assess price action carefully here before doing so. A definitive break below 1.6880 might augur well for a short. Maybe this; maybe that. This is a watch and wait pair at the moment.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

USDCAD—at resistance

USDCAD has climbed nicely with my trade from 1.0256 currently up 221 pips. I just took partial profits at +220 pips.

The pair is at resistance at 1.0528. Further resistance is at 1.0580/95, 1.0626, and 1.0747. Support is at 1.0414, 1.0336, and 1.0292.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURCHF—still short

I still have a small short remaining in this pair. The original short was placed in mid-December at 1.4928 and I’ve taken partial profits. The candles still look bearish so there’s no reason to bail out of the rest of it. If the SNB has indeed forsaken intervention, then the next major support area is 1.4578. I’m profit stopped at 118 pips. Here’s the daily chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPCHF—faltered at resistance

This pair fell back from its high of 1.7037 yesterday and I wrote then that since it had been in a range of 1.6118 to 1.7113 since mid-September, this was an area to watch for shorts. It has faltered and I closed my long this morning at 1.6965 for +223 pips. I then took a short position at 1.6958. I have just moved my stop to breakeven when it dropped 40 pips.

This is simply a range trade, selling at or near (in this case) the top of the range. The march of candles up still looks bullish to me (not a lot of upper shadows on them, just resolute white candles). This little pullback could only be relieving the overbought pressure so we’ll have to see if this reaction has any legs. A close below 1.6880 would be encouraging.

Here’s the daily chart:


© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—this dog can hunt

Good show, I’d say, in the Euro the last couple of days. I took some partial profits at +250 pips. Lot’s of braying all around about how the Euro is headed for the 1.30s after all the braying since the beginning of the year that the Euro was headed back to the 1.50s. Someday, maybe; not today.

The low this morning is 1.4044 so far (as of 5:00 AM EST). The last time it was this low was last August 17 when the low was 1.4046. This is a support level so let’s see where it goes from here. The break from the bear flag was significant for several reasons. It broke the bottom of the flag, of course but it also broke an uptrend line from March and the 200 SMA. In short (and I hope you are), things don’t look good for the Euro.

If you’re not short, what can you do? You can wait for a rally because there will be one at some point. It could bounce back to the bottom of the prior range at 1.4178/4215. I doubt very much we’re going to see a V-shaped bottom with a pogo-stick bounce back up to 1.50 without looking back so I’m looking to add to my position on some sort of bounce. These are the likely resistance levels:

1.4215
1.4150/70
1.4105


Likely support levels are:

1.4015
1.3982
1.3885
1.3802

How far could the pair drop? One price target is roughly the length of the flagpole from the breakout point. In this case, that means down to 1.35 or so. I have other targets that go down to a low of 1.3370. There is another uptrend line coming in from the lows of late 2008 that currently is at 1.2767. Gulp or Hooah depending on which side of the fence you stand.

Here’s the daily chart:


© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

GBPCHF—watch for weakness

GBPCHF has been in a range of 1.6118 to 1.7113 since mid-September. I’ve been long recently and am still in (trade wasn’t blogged about) but I’m thinking it may be coming time to close and short the pair. There are signs of weakness.

The last high in mid-December was 1.7026, lower than the top of the range. It has reached 1.7037 today. The pair is struggling a bit, now. Another issue is slight negative divergence on the daily chart. On the three-hour chart, the last candle that closed had a tall upper shadow—since it’s at resistance it makes sense the pair might be rejecting higher prices. The current climb has a steep rate of ascent—the steeper the climb, the less sustainable it tends to be. Even if it continues to rise, there should be some reaction.

The last high in mid-December was 1.7026, lower than the top of the range. It has reached 1.7037 today. The pair is struggling a bit, now. Another issue is slight negative divergence on the daily chart. On the three-hour chart, the last candle that closed had a tall upper shadow—since it’s at resistance it makes sense the pair might be rejecting higher prices. In addition, the current climb has a steep rate of ascent—the steeper the climb, the less sustainable it tends to be. Even if it continues to rise, there should be some reaction.

On the other side of the argument, I have a price target from my point and figure chart that says it could go quite a bit higher. Also, steep or now, the pair is robustly climbing. However, this area, up to 1.7113 is one to watch for possible shorts. Stops will need to be tight as this pair can be tricky.

Here’s the daily chart:


© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPJPY—out for now

I was stopped out at breakeven. I am still watching this pair for shorts.

GBPJPY—Addendum

One thing to watch on the 15-minute chart I just posted is whether there is a close below the lower shadows of the prior candles. If not, I’ll probably unwind my short position which I took at 148.67..

GBPJPY—Evening star

Although GBPJPY is still within the triangle, in fact about the same place it was yesterday morning after dropping and then rising again, an evening star has formed on the 15-minute chart. An evening star is a three-candle formation that begins with a long bullish candle, then a star, and then a candle that closes well into the bullish candle. I’m not thrilled by the tall bullish candle before the start of the formation but it is what it is. I’m willing to risk a small position given the reasons I cited yesterday—overall downtrend, price objective still unmet from double top, strengthening yen, and resistance levels. The safer trade is still to wait until it closes outside the triangle.

Support is at 148.29, 148.00, and 147.47 (the triangle bottom). Resistance is at 149.00, 149.48, 149.79 (triangle top) and 150.72.

Here’s the 15-minute chart:


© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

USDCAD—at resistance again

This pair is up nicely with my long from 1.0256 up 120 pips as I write. Clearly, risk aversion is in play and the USD is benefitting. As I suspected, the volatility yesterday morning took out my other long at +5 pips.

It’s about time this pair started to move after bunches of half-hearted starts. However, here we are again at resistance in a zone of 1.0395 to 1.0414/27. Additional resistance is at 1.0455. Support is at 1.0300 and 1.0315/20. Just as when prices climb or fall quickly, it’s hard to find good support and resistance, when pairs dither around for weeks on end, the entire area becomes support or resistance for future moves. This pair has been dithering since mid-October. Past readers will remember I made most of my money in this pair in October as it climbed. It’s still within the broad zone of 1.0208 to 1.0853 so it’s difficult to get too excited.

The pair is oversold on both the 3- and 1-hour charts. Both charts are also unremarkable at present. The one-hour shows a climb out of an upward channel recently with bullish candles. Here’s the one-hour chart:


© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—finally leaving its range?

Could the Euro finally be falling out of the bear flag? I’m cautiously optimistic. Why am I optimistic? Am I a big bad Euro bear? No, not at all. The Euro can go up or down as far as I’m concerned and my only interest is to be on the right side of its (or any pairs) movements.

The reason it’s good news is that the sideways movement that’s been taking place since December 22 had to end. Pairs pause in their relentless march up and down the price chart to catch their breath, to regroup, to give traders a chance to work out the laws of supply and demand. You can make money in these ranges. This one ranged from a low of 1.4217 to 1.4579 or 362 pips and I hope you made a couple of good trades in here. However, real money, with somewhat less stress, comes when the market starts trending again. One only hopes that this market is going to do so. If it doesn’t—if this is just an expansion of the current range, then this is what we’ll have to deal with.

What do things look like this morning for my short from 1.4325? It’s plus 155 pips as I write this at 6:00 AM EST. I just took some profits at +150 pips. A hammer formed on the three-hour chart a couple of candles ago. The current candle is edging down towards the bottom of that hammer. If it closes below it, then that’s a negative sign and we can probably expect to see more declines. It’s also oversold on both the three- and one-hour charts.

This has been quite a drop. Unless it’s a falling knife, there’s most likely a bounce in here somewhere. At the rally, one could short again depending on price behavior on the shorter-term charts. One could also short if it closes below the hammer on the three-hour chart. This is risky territory and stops must be super tight. If there is a bounce, the temptation for some traders will be to go long, thinking, perhaps, that it will climb back to the flag. Again, stops need to be tight.

If this was truly a bear flag, how far could the pair drop? The price target is roughly the length of the flagpole from the breakout point. In this case, that means down to 1.35 or so. As I wrote last week, hooah! Don’t get your deposit slips out just yet. Wait to see what the pair is going to do.

It’s currently in a support area at 1.4150/70. Next serious support levels are 1.4105, 1.4047 and 1.3828, Resistance is at 1.4220/52, 1.4320, and 1.4415.

Here’s the three-hour chart.


© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

USDCAD—trickling up again

It’s tempting to write this pair off with its ever-more-irritating drops but, as I’ve pointed out in past blogs, until it drops below the October low of 1.0208, there’s nothing new to learn as to longer-term prospects. As a result, I wrote this past Friday that I bought as it was near enough the low that the stop could be tight. This was at 1.0287. I subsequently added to that position at 1.0256. After dilly-dallying around, the original long is up 20 pips as I write and the newer one is up 51 pips. I have moved the stop to just above breakeven on both positions. With the Canadian interest rate decision coming out in the next half-hour, there may be some volatility but I doubt the later position (from 1.0256) will be stopped out. The pair is at some minor resistance now and the candles are throwing off upper shadows, hinting the pair is rejecting higher prices. Here’s the hourly chart:


© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—nudging out of bear flag

On the daily chart, EURUSD has been in a bear flag for the last 18 trading days. As I’ve written before, you could also see this as an upward channel if it makes you feel better about the world. This morning when I finally pulled myself out of bed, I see it’s nudging the downward line of that flag.

I went short at 1.4325 but I’m a bit skeptical of the pair because Euro traditionally hems and haws about dropping. Another problem is that it’s at the 200SMA (simple moving average) on the daily chart and this has been serving as support for the last couple of weeks. As a result, I’ve already moved my stop to breakeven plus one (plus one? What am I, scraping for any sou now?) while it’s 25 pips ahead. On the other hand, RSI has broken below its uptrend line, seemingly followed by price. In addition, you’ll notice that RSI, which reflects momentum, never rose very high during the last price rise.

The pair needs to close definitively below the flag to make it a safer trade. Even then, I wouldn’t rule out a pullback to the flag line before it gives up its bullish ghost. If it gives up the ghost….Nothing is certain in this world except death and taxes after all. Well, those and the on-going stupidity of government agencies who believe they can convince us that by taking away our freedoms they’re making us more secure. I’m talking to you, CFTC and TSA and SEC and…..the list is way too long. Here’s the daily chart:


© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPJPY—working its way back up inside the triangle

The pound in general is doing well this morning, ostensibly because UK CPI exceeded expectations but the writers and pundits have to write something, right? My remaining short in this pair was profit stopped overnight at 1.4904 for +80 pips.

GBPJPY is still within the triangle I’ve been blogging about lately, somewhere in the middle so this is no place to take a position for most traders. I did however just get off another short at 148.71. It’s a small position because I’m not entirely comfortable with this. However, my reasons for shorting again are as follows:

1)The pair is in an overall downtrend
2)Price objective from the confirmed double top is still unmet
3)The yen is strengthening across the board
4)Within the current triangle on the one-hour chart, the pair is running into resistance. The last two closed candles show long upper shadows that hint higher prices are being rejected
5)The most recent closed candle on the one-hour chart is a spinning top.

Spinning top candles have small bodies, black or white. They show the bulls and bears are in a tug of war. Even though the prior candle was a long white bullish one, the bulls haven’t entirely seized control. Some would say that these last two candles are a double top but that’s not true unless price breaks below the trough (the lowest point between the two).

Let’s just see what happens. Here’s the three-hour chart:


© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

Monday, January 18, 2010

Protest against the proposed CFTC rule to limit leverage

Please contact CFTC if you don't believe retail Forex traders should be limited to only 10:1 leverage in their accounts. This rule would have the effect of driving small traders to offshore, completely unregulated accounts. Their proposal can be found here:

http://www.cftc.gov/newsroom/generalpressreleases/2010/pr5772-10.html

If you disagree with this,you may submit your comments to

secretary@cftc.gov.

Include “Regulation of Retail Forex” in the subject line of the message and the identification number RIN 3038-AC61 in the body of the message.

Also, with the identification number RIN 3038-AC61, you can submit your comments by any of the
following methods:
• Fax: (202) 418-5521.
• Mail: Send to David Stawick, Secretary, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, 1155
21st Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20581.
• Courier: Same as Mail above.

All comments received will be posted without change to http://www.cftc.gov, including any personal information provided.

Below is the email I sent:

I am writing to object to the proposed regulation of retail Forex traders (RIN 3038-AC61). Specifically, I object to the provision that states, "Leverage in retail forex customer accounts would be subject to a 10-to-1 limitation."

While I understand you see increasing leverage requirements as increasing consumer protection, the result will be the opposite of what you intend because this provision would drive small retail traders to offshore brokers who are not subject to any regulation. As a result, they may be in danger of losing all their money, regardless of any specific trading decisions they make, because of unethical brokers.

In addition, the retail Forex market is comprised of many different levels of individuals. Your proposed rule does not allow for this. For example, I have passed the three exam series from the Market Technician Association and have been awarded my Chartered Market Technician (CMT) letters. I also have five years of trading experience as an independent trader. I should not be subject to a 10-to-1 limitation and have no idea why you think this would be protective of me. It will prevent me from moving profits out of my trading account on a regular basis because I would need additional capital to maintain margin requirements. The result would be that I would have more money, not less, at risk at any given time.

Finally, it is tempting to say that the small retail trader is most at risk in trading because they're uninformed. This, however, is a questionable statement based on various studies. Research has found that mutual fund managers, newsletter writers, Wall Street strategists, and investment advisors make the same behavioral errors in the financial marketplace as the "uninformed public" does. One only has to look at the behavior that led to the financial crisis of 2008 to know this is true as regards risk. While the response might be that these people can afford it, I remind you that it was the public's money used to bail out the financial institutions.

Rather than a blanket requirement of 10-to-1 leverage, it would be more appropriate to require some sort of training for those who intend to trade, even if this was only confined to risk management issues as opposed to a more general how to trade approach. Traders who could not show sufficient training or experience could be required to pass an online exam that would show they understand risk and money management. The individuals could be assessed a fee for this so that the cost would be borne by those who wished to trade. Brokers could not open an account unless the individual could show proof of passing this exam. This would do more to limit risk than to have a blanket provision such as 10-to-1 margin requirements. This is no different from requiring a driver's license for someone who wishes to drive.

Dianne Fecteau

No trading the rest of today

Given that this is a holiday in the states and liquidity is likely to be down, I'm going to refrain from trading the rest of the day.

GBPJPY—still in triangle

This pair is still within its symmetrical triangle. I suspect it will break out of it this week, although probably not today since it’s a holiday here in the states (Martin Luther King day). I’m still short from 149.84.

Symmetrical triangles graphically show the struggle between buyers and sellers. There is no certain direction at this point so the market stalls and vacillates until traders resolve the struggle. While these types of triangles are often continuation patterns, that’s not at all guaranteed. If you believe it’s an upward continuation pattern, no doubt you’re looking at the short-term uptrend from November or even the longer term uptrend from this past year.

It could be but here are some things to consider:

There has been a sideways pattern in much of 2009, just as there has been with the EURJPY. The bottom of the sideways pattern is 139.03 in the spring of 2009. The pair then climbed, making a double top at 162.60/163.09 in June and August of 2009. The trough of that double top is 146.77 and the pair broke below it in September to a low of 139.71. The price target from that pattern was 130.45 (Peak to trough subtracted from trough or (146.77 – (163.09 – 146.77)). Clearly, it didn’t make it but these things aren’t guaranteed. In addition, the target isn’t always achieved in one grand move—that is, it can vacillate and stall….Since the 139.71 low, it retraced somewhat over 50% of the decline from the top and then began to falter, leading, finally, to this triangle. If this is true, then perhaps there is more significant decline to come until it reaches the price target of 130.4 Placing this within the context of the weekly chart, one sees that the sideways pattern formed after a sharp downtrend from 2007. One could argue that the downtrend led to a long sideways consolidation period, during which the market is catching its breath before continuing its slide. If this is so, this little triangle is truly insignificant. However, the probability is that the trend will continue down.

From the weekly chart, one could also make the case that the pair is basing and that this is a second wave correction after an initial move up from the lows of 118.83/119.72. If so, this triangle is probably part of that and the move will be up.

My point of all this is to show first, that looking in the larger context can give perspective to things, and second, that you don’t really know what a pair is going to do at any given time. However, that leads some traders to tear their hair out and gnash their teeth. I don’t know why it should. With this kind of scenario, find good entry points and keep at least a portion of your trade on, until things become clearer. One thing I can promise is that things will become clearer, especially when the pair breaks out of this triangle.

Meanwhile, I’m staying in my short until taken out at which time I’ll evaluate the market again. Here’s the daily chart:



© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.