My short stopped out at +20 so I'm glad I took some profits when it was up at +68 pips. On the daily chart, the pair has dropped below the uptrend line from the March 16 low (see yesterday's blog). The low so far is 130.61, just a bit below Friday's low of 130.67. The May low of 130.29 is next, unless it can rally. Unless this is a fake-out, it's probably best to short rallies. There is positive divergence on the four-hour chart so a bounce may be in the works.
Resistance is at 132.08, 132.77 (June high) and 132.95/133.03/133.25, the 20- and 10-weekly EMA and 100 daily SMA respectively. After that are 134.50 (the daily chart downtrend line) and the May high of 135.14.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Showing posts with label GBPJPY. Show all posts
Showing posts with label GBPJPY. Show all posts
Wednesday, June 8, 2011
Tuesday, June 7, 2011
GBPJPY—struggling
In line with my blog yesterday, I went long in GBPJPY at 131.08. I've locked in some profits at +68 pips but I'd like to see the pair do better than this. As it is, it's struggling with the 132 area, having reached a high of 132.08 this morning. That is only one pip higher than yesterday's high of 132.07. The .618 retracement of the move from 130.29 to 135.14 is 132.14.
One can trace out a five-wave decline on the hourly chart and, if this is so, the pair should be in a C wave with a potential high of 132.45 (where C would equal A) and 133.46 (where C is 1.618 that of A).
Resistance is at 132.08, 132.77 (June high) and 132.95/133.03/133.25, the 20- and 10-weekly EMA and 100 daily SMA respectively. After that are 134.50 (the daily chart downtrend line) and the May high of 135.14.
Support is at 131.89/71 (daily 200 SMA and the low for the prior two hours), 130.67 (Friday's low), and 130.29 (May low). Below 130 would likely see additional price drops.
Here is the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author. My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
One can trace out a five-wave decline on the hourly chart and, if this is so, the pair should be in a C wave with a potential high of 132.45 (where C would equal A) and 133.46 (where C is 1.618 that of A).
Resistance is at 132.08, 132.77 (June high) and 132.95/133.03/133.25, the 20- and 10-weekly EMA and 100 daily SMA respectively. After that are 134.50 (the daily chart downtrend line) and the May high of 135.14.
Support is at 131.89/71 (daily 200 SMA and the low for the prior two hours), 130.67 (Friday's low), and 130.29 (May low). Below 130 would likely see additional price drops.
Here is the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author. My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Monday, March 21, 2011
GBPJPY—weekly
Last week was the fourth week with lower highs. Obviously, last week's price action created a doji candle with a long lower shadow. The shadow's low of 122.71 dipped well under the weekly downtrend line that the pair broke above nine weeks ago but the close at 130.83 was above that line. The short-term view is that perhaps the long, secular downtrend has resumed. However, note that the pair didn't spend any time at the 122.71 low and bounced sharply. In additon, momentum, as represented by RSI, looks good.
Price action, this morning, is choppy. Immediate resistance is at 132.50. A close today below 130.83 would be bearish.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Price action, this morning, is choppy. Immediate resistance is at 132.50. A close today below 130.83 would be bearish.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
GBPJPY—daily chart
The Guppy has moved down sharply from its February 18 high of 135.54. The low yesterday was 129.19.
Where might this drop end? The most likely area is 128.86/10. There are several reasons. First, 128.86 is confluence. Second, 1.2881 is a support from the weekly pivot. 1.2832 is the January low. Finally, if one assumes that an A wave began at 1.3554 and ended at 131.13, and the B wave ended at 135.24, then wave C will be 1.618 of A at 128.10. One thing to note is that a broken former trend line comes in below 128 so if the pair is going to retest it that moves support downwards.
If this support zone doesn't hold price, then the next support is at 125.51 so if one tries a long position in the 128 support zone, use a stop that matches your risk tolerance.
Will it go to 125.51 and possibly below? Who knows? There's some evidence it could. For example, on the daily chart below, the break upward, above the trend line, even though sustained for over six weeks, could be a false break. A close below 125.51 would confirm that. One could also argue that the move up to 135.54 was a three wave correction on the daily chart.
Watch behavior, both momentum and price, in the 128 zone if price reaches that level, for clues as to future behavior.
Here's the daily chart.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Where might this drop end? The most likely area is 128.86/10. There are several reasons. First, 128.86 is confluence. Second, 1.2881 is a support from the weekly pivot. 1.2832 is the January low. Finally, if one assumes that an A wave began at 1.3554 and ended at 131.13, and the B wave ended at 135.24, then wave C will be 1.618 of A at 128.10. One thing to note is that a broken former trend line comes in below 128 so if the pair is going to retest it that moves support downwards.
If this support zone doesn't hold price, then the next support is at 125.51 so if one tries a long position in the 128 support zone, use a stop that matches your risk tolerance.
Will it go to 125.51 and possibly below? Who knows? There's some evidence it could. For example, on the daily chart below, the break upward, above the trend line, even though sustained for over six weeks, could be a false break. A close below 125.51 would confirm that. One could also argue that the move up to 135.54 was a three wave correction on the daily chart.
Watch behavior, both momentum and price, in the 128 zone if price reaches that level, for clues as to future behavior.
Here's the daily chart.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
GBPJPY—rally
My short from 134.02 profit-stopped out at 133.91 (+11 pips, barely worth bothering with).
In early morning London trading the pair spiked to 134.59 before falling back. I was awake, trying to catch up on some analysis after being out of town part of last week. I watched the Guppy immediately fall but around the 50% retracement point of the move up from yesterday's low it hesitated.
I bought at 133.91 (the same price I'd been stopped at in the other direction but I didn't notice that until just now). My reason for doing so, besides the hesitation, was that momentum wasn't supporting the move down from Thursday's high. Also, this pair had violated a long term resistance line and that's a powerful hint things may be changing. So I'm long. After I bought the pair spiked down a bit more, almost to the .618 retracement of the move up from yesterday. After that it resumed its rally, so far reaching 134.97.
Support is at 1.3319 (yesterday's low) and then there's a zone of support down to 132.00. Below that is 130.01.
Resistance is at 135.22, 136.24, and 137.79. After that there is little in the way of resistance until 141.19 (confluence) and then price resistance at 145.98, last April's high.
If one assumes this is an ABC correction off of 125.51, targets are 136.53 if wave C equals A and 140.86 at 1.618A. If one assumes a daily flag, the target is 136.25. So if I don't get stopped out (my stop is now slightly better than breakeven), I'll take partial profits in the 136 area.
Here's a 15-minute chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
In early morning London trading the pair spiked to 134.59 before falling back. I was awake, trying to catch up on some analysis after being out of town part of last week. I watched the Guppy immediately fall but around the 50% retracement point of the move up from yesterday's low it hesitated.
I bought at 133.91 (the same price I'd been stopped at in the other direction but I didn't notice that until just now). My reason for doing so, besides the hesitation, was that momentum wasn't supporting the move down from Thursday's high. Also, this pair had violated a long term resistance line and that's a powerful hint things may be changing. So I'm long. After I bought the pair spiked down a bit more, almost to the .618 retracement of the move up from yesterday. After that it resumed its rally, so far reaching 134.97.
Support is at 1.3319 (yesterday's low) and then there's a zone of support down to 132.00. Below that is 130.01.
Resistance is at 135.22, 136.24, and 137.79. After that there is little in the way of resistance until 141.19 (confluence) and then price resistance at 145.98, last April's high.
If one assumes this is an ABC correction off of 125.51, targets are 136.53 if wave C equals A and 140.86 at 1.618A. If one assumes a daily flag, the target is 136.25. So if I don't get stopped out (my stop is now slightly better than breakeven), I'll take partial profits in the 136 area.
Here's a 15-minute chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Monday, February 14, 2011
GBPJPY—stalling
I wrote last week that I'd shorted the Guppy after it touched 134.26. I entered two positions at 1.3402 and closed one of them on Friday when it seemed as though it was stalling (133.60 for +42 pips). The pair is stubbornly staying above 132.85 and there's a zone of support down to 132.00. Until it breaks below that there's not a lot to say. Below 132.00 is support at 130.01. If it does begin to break down, it's evidence that the move above the three-hour upward channel was a fake-out and the bottom of the channel is a potential target.
If it can resume its rally, a successful close over 134.26 would put the pair on track to resistance at 135.22, 136.24, and 137.79. After that there is little in the way of resistance until 141.19 (confluence) and then price resistance at 145.98, last April's high.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
If it can resume its rally, a successful close over 134.26 would put the pair on track to resistance at 135.22, 136.24, and 137.79. After that there is little in the way of resistance until 141.19 (confluence) and then price resistance at 145.98, last April's high.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Friday, February 11, 2011
GBPJPY—made it
I haven’t written about this pair since Feb. 1 when I was long from 130.65. I wrote then that the pair had to close above 134.23 for the breakout above the long-term downtrend line to mean anything. Yesterday afternoon, it touched 134.26. I shorted there because I expected it would be good resistance and there was negative divergence. This morning I closed one of the positions; I moved the stop on the other to breakeven. I’m at a conference today so don’t have time to do a lot of analysis but the pair’s behavior is interesting in light of some risk aversion.
Note that it still hasn’t closed above 134.23. I’d expect one of two things in the near-term in order to remain bullish on the pair: it will either quickly retest 134.26 and close above it for the week (very bullish) or it will retrace to .382 or .50 of the recent move up, staying above 132.00 and then retest. This would probably happen next week. Of course, it could always sink like a stone but not until it gets below 130.00 would I be too concerned. It has not been below 130.00 this month although it touched 130.01 on January 31.
A successful close over 134.26 would put the pair on track to resistance at 135.22, 136.24, and 137.79. After that there is very little in the way of resistance until 141.19 (confluence) and then price resistance at 145.98, last April's high.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Note that it still hasn’t closed above 134.23. I’d expect one of two things in the near-term in order to remain bullish on the pair: it will either quickly retest 134.26 and close above it for the week (very bullish) or it will retrace to .382 or .50 of the recent move up, staying above 132.00 and then retest. This would probably happen next week. Of course, it could always sink like a stone but not until it gets below 130.00 would I be too concerned. It has not been below 130.00 this month although it touched 130.01 on January 31.
A successful close over 134.26 would put the pair on track to resistance at 135.22, 136.24, and 137.79. After that there is very little in the way of resistance until 141.19 (confluence) and then price resistance at 145.98, last April's high.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
GBPJPY—taking its time
As I wrote last week, Guppy broke above strong resistance, a long-term downtrend line on the weekly chart. In order for this to mean something more than what it is, it must close above the 134.23 November high. Last week it touched 132.58 and sprung back as though shot, immediately retracing almost the entire move up from 128.70, dropping to 128.82 on Friday. Late yesterday it touched 132.00 for about three minutes before falling back again. I bought yesterday at 130.65 after the pair missed my buy order at 129.55. Obviously, I'm at better than breakeven but the pair needs to get moving.
On the daily chart below, it's peeking above the daily downtrend line from this past August. Troubling signs are the long upper shadow on the circled candle which hints that it's rejecting higher prices right at confluence and the two long bearish candles the last few days. The most recent price action on the three-hour chart (not shown) is forming into an ascending triangle. Ascending triangles typically break upwards.
If it does break upwards then resistance is at 132.58, 133.00, 134.23, 135.22, 136.24, and 137.79. After that there is very little in the way of resistance until 141.19 (confluence) and then price resistance at 145.98, last April's high.
Support is at 129.50, 128.99, 127.50, 126.73/46 and 125.55.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
On the daily chart below, it's peeking above the daily downtrend line from this past August. Troubling signs are the long upper shadow on the circled candle which hints that it's rejecting higher prices right at confluence and the two long bearish candles the last few days. The most recent price action on the three-hour chart (not shown) is forming into an ascending triangle. Ascending triangles typically break upwards.
If it does break upwards then resistance is at 132.58, 133.00, 134.23, 135.22, 136.24, and 137.79. After that there is very little in the way of resistance until 141.19 (confluence) and then price resistance at 145.98, last April's high.
Support is at 129.50, 128.99, 127.50, 126.73/46 and 125.55.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
GBPJPY—weekly
Taking a look at the weekly chart below, one can see that the pair has managed to break above a long-term downtrend resistance line that has had three touches. This raises the question of whether the pair is using the recent low of 125.51 to base. If the Guppy can climb and close above the 134.23 November high, the question becomes a possibility. 132.52 has been the most recent high where it ran into resistance from confluence. The real test is whether it can sustain a close above 134.23. If it can, then the potential is for a move to 137.79, 139.38/87 (confluence) and 145.98.
If it gets to 134.23, many traders, still driven by the substantive downtrend, will short. That's why a substantive close, preferably on a weekly basis, will be necessary for continued bullish movement. Still, one needs to keep in mind that this quite formidable trend line has been breached for the time being. 169.39 would be a .382 retracement of the entire move down so there's room for some good profits if it does continue up.
129.50 is the first support. Below that is 128.99, 127.50 126.73/46, and 125.55.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
If it gets to 134.23, many traders, still driven by the substantive downtrend, will short. That's why a substantive close, preferably on a weekly basis, will be necessary for continued bullish movement. Still, one needs to keep in mind that this quite formidable trend line has been breached for the time being. 169.39 would be a .382 retracement of the entire move down so there's room for some good profits if it does continue up.
129.50 is the first support. Below that is 128.99, 127.50 126.73/46, and 125.55.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Thursday, December 2, 2010
GBPJPY—resistance and above
As I wrote yesterday, it looks as though this pair is rallying within a C leg of an ABC correction. It did reach 131.77 this morning, within two pips of my hourly target of a C wave. It has since fallen back to a low of 131.11 where it's trying to base. There are many interesting geometric shapes on the shorter term charts so we'll have to see where this goes. While one can try shorts in this area up to 131.90 (see yesterday's blog), another good shorting opportunity is 134.17. It's important to keep the psychology of the market in mind—people see weakness in this pair based on the overall trend and are looking to short. However those that shorted the break of 130 a couple of days ago are hurting a bit. If the pair moves beyond 132, the pain increases and they'll start buying back their shorts. That feeds more upward price movement. At some point, though, the bears will probably win out given the big downtrend. All you can do is pick shorting points that make sense and go in with tight stops. The potential gains are great—probably down to 120 and potentially lower, a lot lower. For a weekly chart, the one I think most relavent, ee yesterday's blog.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
GBPJPY—corrective rally
The low of 129.93 yesterday equaled a .63 percent retracement of the move from 126.44 to 134.23. Assuming this is an ABC correction on the daily chart, the C leg currently underway could reach 134.17 if C equals .618A. That's near price resistance as well as the current 200 day SMA. It's also near the November high of 134.22 and near the upper line of a downward sloping channel on the weekly chart. As a result, I'd expect to see good resistance there and I'd try a short. The pair's average true range is around 137 pips (low compared to historic levels) so this should happen over the next few days if it's going to happen.
On an hourly basis, one can also see a potential ABC correction with the C leg in progress and possible targets up to 131.75. Just above this is the uptrend line from October lows at 131.90 as well as resistance from a weekly EMA and a daily 10 and 20 SMA. In addition, the 50% retracement of the move down from 134.23 to 129.36 is at 131.80. All this is significant resistance so obviously if the pair is going to achieve the 134.17/35 range, it has to first close neatly above this level. If one shorts here, the stop needs to be over 132.00—not too bad for the potential gain down to 119/120.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
On an hourly basis, one can also see a potential ABC correction with the C leg in progress and possible targets up to 131.75. Just above this is the uptrend line from October lows at 131.90 as well as resistance from a weekly EMA and a daily 10 and 20 SMA. In addition, the 50% retracement of the move down from 134.23 to 129.36 is at 131.80. All this is significant resistance so obviously if the pair is going to achieve the 134.17/35 range, it has to first close neatly above this level. If one shorts here, the stop needs to be over 132.00—not too bad for the potential gain down to 119/120.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
GBPJPY—narrow range at support
The pair has moved in a narrow range of 1.3291 to 1.3380 since Friday and the low is right on a fib confluence level and breakout level. I've gone long at 133.09 with possible price targets of 1.3506 and 1.3779. Nearby resistance is 1.3375 so I'll probably take some profits if it gets to that point. This pair doesn't like hanging around in ranges so I expect any move (up or down) to be swift. Below 132.75, I'd get antsy about being long and possibly reverse.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Friday, November 5, 2010
GBPJPY—still within correction
GBPJPY is the same place it was yesterday when I posted--within the small correction within a larger correction. Staying above the psychological 1.30 is important. A drop below 128.75 would signal lower lows. I'm still long from 129.35.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Thursday, November 4, 2010
GBPJPY—rally
GBPJPY has rallied to a high so far today of 131.52 where it looks as though it's undergoing a small correction within its overall corrective rectangle. I'm still long from 129.35.
I expect stronger resistance at the top of the corrective channel at 132.10 as there is also some former price resistance coming in there. 133.39 would be next after that. Support should hold at 130.13 if it gets that low. I'll probably add to my position if it drops to 130.88/68
Here's the three-hour chart.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
I expect stronger resistance at the top of the corrective channel at 132.10 as there is also some former price resistance coming in there. 133.39 would be next after that. Support should hold at 130.13 if it gets that low. I'll probably add to my position if it drops to 130.88/68
Here's the three-hour chart.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
GBPJPY—at resistance
After yesterday's post on this pair, I did go long at 129.35. I just took partial profits at +102 pips.
I wrote yesterday that corrections often stay within parallel lines. I still believe the pair could get back to the top of this upward correction (131.30). However at this point, it's at the mid-point of the correction with a high of 130.54. This is resistance since 50% retracement of the most recent down is 130.73 and this is also a prior high. If it falters here, look hard at the action around the upward line of the correction at 130.33. There the line joins with the downward trend line so it strengthens it as support. There could be a retest and then a resumption of the rally. If so, expect to see 131.40, 133.03 (fib confluence), and then higher. RSI is still coiling and should break above the coil if the pair is serious about a move up.
Breaking below 130.33, however, opens up 128 again and below that look for a retest of 126.44. I have price targets below that from my Point and Figure charts of 121.50, then 120.40, 119.70, and .9990.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
I wrote yesterday that corrections often stay within parallel lines. I still believe the pair could get back to the top of this upward correction (131.30). However at this point, it's at the mid-point of the correction with a high of 130.54. This is resistance since 50% retracement of the most recent down is 130.73 and this is also a prior high. If it falters here, look hard at the action around the upward line of the correction at 130.33. There the line joins with the downward trend line so it strengthens it as support. There could be a retest and then a resumption of the rally. If so, expect to see 131.40, 133.03 (fib confluence), and then higher. RSI is still coiling and should break above the coil if the pair is serious about a move up.
Breaking below 130.33, however, opens up 128 again and below that look for a retest of 126.44. I have price targets below that from my Point and Figure charts of 121.50, then 120.40, 119.70, and .9990.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
GBPJPY—possible long with stop and reverse
I'm leaning long and here's why. We’re near a good support level of 128.00 (yen pairs like round numbers) and near an uptrend line at 129 (another round number). This may only be a correction before further drops but corrections often stay within parallel lines and it could get back to the top of this upward correction. (131.30) The 50% retracement of the most recent down is at 130.73, also a prior high. That's a nothing move pip-wise for this pair. 133.03 is a confluence level and a break above the channel line to here would most likely set off a short squeeze that could push it further upwards. So I may be looking for a long this morning.
When would I know I was wrong if I was long? Certainly below 128.00—so an entry here might carry a bit too much risk for the average trader. One could buy at 128 with a very tight stop (and I do mean tight, i.e. 127.90) but I'd be watching momentum closely at that point. Notice how RSI is coiling within a symmetrical triangle. Stop and reverse would be the probable trade at that point, looking for a retest of 126.44. I have price targets below that from my Point and Figure charts of 121.50, then 120.40, 119.70, and .9990 (gulp).
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
When would I know I was wrong if I was long? Certainly below 128.00—so an entry here might carry a bit too much risk for the average trader. One could buy at 128 with a very tight stop (and I do mean tight, i.e. 127.90) but I'd be watching momentum closely at that point. Notice how RSI is coiling within a symmetrical triangle. Stop and reverse would be the probable trade at that point, looking for a retest of 126.44. I have price targets below that from my Point and Figure charts of 121.50, then 120.40, 119.70, and .9990 (gulp).
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Monday, October 25, 2010
GBPJPY—New low
The Guppie has dipped below the May 20th low of 126.73 to 126.46 so far today. This pair’s average trading range (ATR) recently has been 132 pips. It has already had that move today so I wouldn’t expect more downward moves today. I suspect more lows ahead but would like to see a rally before shorting at this point. 127.22, the lower channel line, or 127.89, recent highs, are both possibilities. Shorting at that level would still require a tight stop as there is also the potential for a rally to the 130 area. At that point, I'd expect sellers to crush it.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Monday, September 13, 2010
GBPJPY—Weekly
Guppy is near its weekly chart uptrend line. Despite the fact the overall picture for this pair looks grim, I'd be surprised if there wasn't a bounce given the more optimistic mood in the markets this morning. I bought at 129.47 with a tight stop below the uptrend line on the weekly chart.
Redrawing the downtrend line (in red on the chart below) from the August 2009 high shows a possible price target of 135.33 This might be overly ambitious given the bearish charts for this pair. More likely is 133.70 the high earlier this month. This is between the daily 50 and 100 SMA of 133.04 and 134.02 respectively so those add a little more strength to the resistance. 134.02 is also the .618 retracement of the last move down (137.79 to 127.92). Sellers will come out there so a short might then be attractive. However if they couldn't overcome the buyers then the previous high of 137.709 would look more attractive. Support is at 129.35, 129.10, and 128.58. A break below the uptrend line needs to find support at 128.58 because below that would indicate the downtrend is resuming with 126.73 in sight. Below that is tohu-bohu with 120.00 first and then 118.83.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Redrawing the downtrend line (in red on the chart below) from the August 2009 high shows a possible price target of 135.33 This might be overly ambitious given the bearish charts for this pair. More likely is 133.70 the high earlier this month. This is between the daily 50 and 100 SMA of 133.04 and 134.02 respectively so those add a little more strength to the resistance. 134.02 is also the .618 retracement of the last move down (137.79 to 127.92). Sellers will come out there so a short might then be attractive. However if they couldn't overcome the buyers then the previous high of 137.709 would look more attractive. Support is at 129.35, 129.10, and 128.58. A break below the uptrend line needs to find support at 128.58 because below that would indicate the downtrend is resuming with 126.73 in sight. Below that is tohu-bohu with 120.00 first and then 118.83.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
GBPJPY—climbing
The remainder of my short profit-stopped at +20 pips. I bought this morning at 129.05 and have just taken partial profits at +160 pips. I don't normally write about the Guppy trades in this blog because of its tendency for fast moves and the pair is tricky to trade. In the last 24 hours I've been long, short, and now long again. I don't usually get in and out of trades so quickly as one can make more money waiting for a pair to begin trending. Very short-term trending is tough to trade and tough on the nerves. So, if you're reading this and you're new to trading it's probably best to avoid this pair. If you learn anything from my writing about this pair it should be that you need to be flexible to trade. Don’t let yourself be mired in your prior analysis. Changing your mind is OK as long as it's not an emotional reaction to price moving on the screen and is because additional analysis provides you with more information.
So why am I long? The move from 128.79 to 133.63 looked as though it was a three-wave correction. But because it rebelled against going lower at 128.66, I'm wondering if that move was wave A of a three-wave correction. If so, it may have completed wave B with the low of 128.66 yesterday and now be in wave C of an Elliott flat correction. All this is hypothesis. I can't prove it until after the fact (one of the reasons you can't really trade Elliott by itself).
But there were other reasons to try a long position. On the three-hour chart I have positive divergence (and the same is true on the one-hour chart). Now divergence has been common lately so I'm not overly excited by this. But it's one more clue.
Looking at the daily chart one can see a range from May and prices are near the bottom of the range. This leads me to believe I have support around 129. Yesterday I wrote about a support line at 129.05. So the chance to buy there this morning was irresistible since I could have a tight stop. On two of the last six daily candles, I have lower shadows which hints that lower prices are being rejected for now even within the overall downtrend.
Between 130.10 and 130.33 is price resistance and currently the pair has gotten above it. So now let's see what happens. Additional resistance is at 131.41, 132.03, 132.75, and 133.68 (daily 50 SMA). Support is at 130.10, 129.45, 129.05 and 128.66.
Remember, if my hypothesis is correct and this is wave C, it will head down again at some point.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
So why am I long? The move from 128.79 to 133.63 looked as though it was a three-wave correction. But because it rebelled against going lower at 128.66, I'm wondering if that move was wave A of a three-wave correction. If so, it may have completed wave B with the low of 128.66 yesterday and now be in wave C of an Elliott flat correction. All this is hypothesis. I can't prove it until after the fact (one of the reasons you can't really trade Elliott by itself).
But there were other reasons to try a long position. On the three-hour chart I have positive divergence (and the same is true on the one-hour chart). Now divergence has been common lately so I'm not overly excited by this. But it's one more clue.
Looking at the daily chart one can see a range from May and prices are near the bottom of the range. This leads me to believe I have support around 129. Yesterday I wrote about a support line at 129.05. So the chance to buy there this morning was irresistible since I could have a tight stop. On two of the last six daily candles, I have lower shadows which hints that lower prices are being rejected for now even within the overall downtrend.
Between 130.10 and 130.33 is price resistance and currently the pair has gotten above it. So now let's see what happens. Additional resistance is at 131.41, 132.03, 132.75, and 133.68 (daily 50 SMA). Support is at 130.10, 129.45, 129.05 and 128.66.
Remember, if my hypothesis is correct and this is wave C, it will head down again at some point.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
GBPJPY—update 2
I shorted at 129.77 and just took partial profits at +85 pips. The low so far is 128.83. The August 24th low of 128.79 may hold. Here's the hourly chart again and it's still showing positive divergence. I suspect there's going to be some bouncing around.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
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