EURCHF—dropping

I'm still short from 1.3075 and have just taken another third of the trade off the table for +176 pips. The pair is headed down again, touching 1.2893. There's a fib projection at 1.2860 so maybe that will hold it. If not, there's always 1.2800. All that intervention from the SNB this past year for this? They might as well have saved their money.

There is positive divergence on the hourly chart so one needs to be careful. But there are divergences all over the place—a sign of a disorganized market and one that will probably straighten out in September after the US holiday.

Here's the hourly chart:













© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURCHF—dropping again

After my post last Thursday, I did go long at 1.3026 but did a stop and reverse this morning at 1.3075. So I made +49 pips which is not what I was expecting when I went long. I still believe the pair could rally to 1.33/1.34 but the sentiment is against it and the second rejection at 1.3145 is significant. As of now, it has broken both its short-term uptrend line and RSI has broken its uptrend line on the three-hour chart. Now it's back near its low—the daily hammer low from last week which is at 1.2970. A break of that could lead to 1.28. However, buyers may come in again and a rejection of that level could be encouraging. I just took partial profits at +80 pips if that happens.

Best thing in such a strong downtrend is to short the rallies. If you're going to go long, watch momentum on the short-term charts. But again, this is late August so traders need to be careful in this increasingly illiquid market.

Here's the three-hour chart.




© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURCHF—1.2970 historic low

I haven't blogged about this pair in a while. After the Swiss National Bank gave up on intervention it has continued to fall in a lovely, textbook, downtrend. After a move down from 1.4468 (I'm using that rather than the 1.4591 high because both the weeks of 4/16 and 5/28 had it as a high) to the low of 1.3062, the pair retraced to 1.3926 which was almost a perfect .618 retracement. It then dropped down to yesterday's 1.2970 which is a historic low. In doing so it formed a hammer on the daily chart.

So now what? The hammer low must hold. If it doesn't, the break of 1.2970 will lead lower, possibly to 1.28. However there could also be another bounce here. A .382 retracement of the last leg down would lead to a potential price of 1.3335; a 50% retracement would be 1.3448. Around the price of 1.3475 are the 20 and 50 day daily SMA's. There's also positive divergence on the daily chart. The problem here is that with such a perfect downtrend and the negative sentiment against the Euro, price could drop rather quickly. So any long would need that stop just below 1.2970. However a short must also have a tight stop because most pairs don't usually go down in a straight line.

Here's the daily chart:


© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURCHF—pullback below 1.40

Touching a low of 1.3888 so far today, the pair has pulled back to dance on its short-term downtrend line that it rose above yesterday when it broke the 1.40 barrier. My long from 1.3787 profit-stopped out at 1.3917 for +130 pips. I haven't gotten back in and want to study price action a bit longer before I make a decision. Certainly, another break above 1.40 might convince me of a long.

Yesterday was 4th day of higher highs and higher lows but yesterday was a doji candle that is known as a gravestone and this is bearish. The rounding type of top on the three-hour chart (although a doji poked its head above) is also bearish. It's not impossible that the Swiss might still intervene so one has to be careful to keep the stops tight if shorting.

Resistance is at 1.4000, 1.4044, 1.4179, 1.4309, 1.4480 and 1.4509. If it gets to 1.4509 a lot of people are going to be really amazed. Support is at 1.3985, 1.3924, 1.3870, 1.3816, 1.3774, and 1.3734.

Here's the three-hour chart:














© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURCHF—broke above 1.40

This pair now has three days of higher highs and higher lows, has broken above its short-term downtrend line, and has overcome the 1.40 psychological barrier for a high of 1.4040 so far. A lot of shorts probably covered once above 1.40 so that may have helped th climb up to 1.4040. I am long from 1.3787 and have just taken partial profits at +233 pips.

1.4044 is a resistance level so the pair needs to get through here. The candles on the daily chart have been strong. However, it's still unlikely this pair is reversing trend. On the hourly chart it is moving above 70 on RSI so it's overbought. If it closes below 70 and price is faltering, it may be time to go short. It's not impossible that the Swiss might still intervene so one has to be careful to keep the stops tight.

Resistance is at 1.4044, 1.4179, 1.4309, 1.4480 and 1.4509. If it gets to 1.4509 a lot of people are going to be really amazed. Support is at 1.4000, 1.3985, 1.3924, 1.3870, 1.3816, 1.3774, and 1.3734.

Here's the three-hour chart:














© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURCHF—sputtering along

The pair reached a high of 1.3963 before falling back a bit and it looks as though the psychological number of 1.40 may be tantalizingly out of reach. However, while short sellers are coming in, one needs to be careful. For one thing, there's still the chance of Swiss bank intervention, which is sort of becoming like the elephant in the room but there you go.

It still appears unlikely to me that this strong down trend is going to reverse upwards. Currently, it's being held back by the 1.40 psychological and prior support as well as a short-term downtrend line.

But my long from 1.3787 is up 143 pips and is profit-stopped, I had a nice little profit on my other long this past Friday, so I'll sit tight for now. I am quite happy to reverse on this pair should momentum, as represented by RSI, begin breaking down.

Resistance is at 1.3963, 1. 4000, 1.4044, and 1.4179. Support is at 1.3870, 1.3816, 1.3774, and 1.3734.

Here's the three-hour chart:
















© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURCHF—update

Closed the long from 1.3822 for +100 pips. That still leaves me one position long. On what should be a lazy June Friday the pair decides to move up?

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURCHF—probing higher

I think that given the overall pressure on the Euro and the strong downtrend in this pair that it's unlikely the trend is going to reverse upwards. However it is making higher highs and higher lows on the hourly chart. The overall strategy should be to sell strength, especially as it moves towards 1.3950 or so.

I have two long positions, one from 1.3787 and one from 1.3822. The latter one is up about 50 pips as I write and I am probably going to close that one out. I'm tightening the stop on the other and may close and reverse at some point. I doubt very much that even if the Swiss National Bank were to intervene that they would do so on a Friday, especially as the day begins to get on.

Resistance is at 1.3943, 1.4000, 1.4044, and 1.4179. Support is at 1.3860, 1.3816, 1.3774, and 1.3734.

Here's the one-hour chart:













© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURCHF—update

I took partial profits at +50 pips from the long position I established at 1.3787. It's pushing upwards but the Euro in general is still under a lot of pressure.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURCHF—no more interventions?

It looks as though the Swiss National Bank has decided to back off on the interventions, perhaps because they weren't doing any good. However, they're sitting on a great pile of Swiss francs in their central bank with their reserves increasing from 153.6 billion to 232.4 billion CHF in May. So maybe they're planning on doing something with that money. Especially now that it looks as though the Euro might be trying to base and, in any case, should correct upwards for the time being.

EURCHF hit a new low at 1.3734 yesterday with a doji candle. The doji would be more impressive if it was at a prior support level but there's nothing to do about that. However, there is positive divergence on the hourly, three-hour, and daily charts. And of course traders are worried about the possible intervention.

More to come but longs right now can have a tight stop and I am willing to try a small long position. However this is not a trade that I can highly recommend as the downward pressure is intense. Selling into rallies is a way one can go but the stop must be very tight because of the pesky intervention risk. Inexperienced traders should stay away from this pair. Take a look at the monthly chart and you'll see what I mean. It's not going straight down but it's pretty gruesome.










© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURCHF -- Hit Profit Target

EURCHF hit profit target for +439 pips. Now it will probably stay in a narrow range again.

EURCHF—repelled at resistance

Now that EURCHF got a little boost out of the incredibly small range in the low 1.40’s, it has been repelled by resistance at 1.4309. Looking at the hourly chart one can see the pair has made four attempts to scale this price. After the last overnight try it has sulked back to 1.4188 (so far). My suspicion is there will be another attempt. Often, after several attempts, a pair will make it through. If it does so, then there is additional resistance at 1.4365 and 1.4466. However, given the sentiment against the Euro, even intervention may not be able to keep this pair up.

Yesterday shows what intervention looks like. EURCHF went from 1.4006 to 1.4207 within an hour and within two hours of that gained another 102 pips to 1.4309. This is why you want tight stops.

Here’s the hourly chart:

















© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

One last note--EURCHF

Finally! I just took partial profits at +177 pips.

EURCHF—still in narrow range

The remainder of my trade stopped at breakeven. I shorted as it approached the high of this narrow range at 1.4040 and set my profit target at 1.4008 which was hit overnight for +32 pips. I have just taken a small long position at 1.4007.

If the SNB does intervene then the pair will break upward of this narrow range of 1.4000 to 1.4007. If they don’t then it should eventually break below. There is no nearby support if it does break below so you want your stop tight if you’re long. Shorting rallies is probably safer but with low profit potential if it's in this range. However you'd still want tight stops as intevention will cause a big spike.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURCHF—update

As the pair approaches yesterday’s high, I took partial profit at +34 pips and moved my stop to breakeven. If you’re not long, a short with a very tight stop (who knows if the SNB will intervene?) is possible but profit potential is low as that 1.40 area is strong support right now.

EURCHF—still hanging about

This pair is still doing nothing since I bought at 1.4008. There’s no reason to post a new chart—look at the one from yesterday. Perhaps the SNB has given up on it.

EURCHF—will SNB intervene?

Since I went long last week at 1.4008 the pair has done absolutely nothing. Will the Swiss National Bank step in or will it not? Traders are apparently paralyzed waiting for the answer.

Here’s the three-hour chart:




















© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURCHF--update

EURCHF has gone nowhere since I blogged about it yesterday. I tried a long at 1.4008 and that's just about where it's sitting 24 hours later. We now all know that the French Finance Minister wasn't up for the attack on the Euro (see quote from earlier this week) so now the question is has the Swiss National Bank thrown in the towel as well and given up on intervention? No doubt, we'll get an answer soon.

EURCHF—dismal

EURCHF is near its low of 1.4000 (currently offered at 1.4008 as of 8:39 AM EST). The big question is now that it's back to its May 6th low whether the Swiss National Bank will intervene. A long here with a tight stop is a possible trade with a small position. However it must be a tight stop because there is no nearby support. Safer might be to sell on a small bounce. But you'll still need tight stops. Resistance is at 1.4065, 1.4117, 1.4188, 1.4334, and 1.4466.

Here's the monthly chart showing just how dismal this pair is:










© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURCHF—after intervention, what?

The SNB finally intervened last week, sending the pair from a low of 1.4145 to 1.4411 in the course of an hour on April 1. Now, with the market sluggish since then, it's unclear as to whether this will hold. The weekly chart showed a doji but it's not really a hammer as the upper shadow is a bit too long. However, just as it climbed from an imperfect hammer in 2008 (arrow points to it), it can climb from this one. There is significant downward pressure on the Euro so it won't be easy. A .382 retracement from 1.5382 would have the pair at 1.4617 which is also near a price resistance level so it would be a good short. 1.48 and 1.51 would be the next resistance levels after that. If price starts to falter before a climb gets underway, a short that expected moves back to the 1.41 lows is justified but now that there has been intervention once this year, it's likely to happen again.

Here's the weekly chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.