Contrast the EURGBP with the price behavior of EURUSD. On the four-hour chart, there is strong move up, especially with the last two candles. This pair, too, is rising within an upward sloping rectangle so it is time to take some profits on my long as it approaches that point. The longer, downtrend resistance line is coming in just above that boundary. However, note that unlike the Euro, momentum, as reflected in RSI, is also maintaining its uptrend line. It is interesting that on this pair, as with the Euro, the 21-SMA is tracking the lower boundary of the rectangle.
EURGBP offered clearer buying signals after weekend analysis than did EURUSD. For example, the week ending 17 June closed with a hammer candle near a support level in the context of what appeared to be a corrective move within an overall uptrend.
Resistance is at .8938/76 (monthly pivot R2, downtrend line, rectangle upper boundary, June 8 high) and .9044.
Here is the four-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Showing posts with label eurgbp. Show all posts
Showing posts with label eurgbp. Show all posts
Wednesday, June 22, 2011
Friday, March 4, 2011
EURGBP—Daily
There's much of interest on the daily chart.
First, a long-term consolidation period within a symmetrical triangle began late last summer. There are various ways to define the touching points but one way is with A ending at .8335 (606 pips), B ending at .8649 (314 pips) and C ending at .8356. This is somewhat speculative but because there's a nice 1,2,3 off of B, I like it.
Another feature of interest is the potential inverted head and shoulders pattern. This won't be confirmed until a break above .8672. If it is confirmed, the price target is .9059. This is in line with a target I have on my daily point and figure chart of .9100. The high this past October was .8941. Just beneath here is a confluence zone.
Finally, of course, there is this morning's push over the recent .8593 high. So far, the price high has only been at the round number of .8600 so this is resistance. It's also just above the daily downtrend line.
The monthly chart (not shown) shows the pair in a triangle with the C leg potentially in progress and a possible target of .8271. The upside of the monthly triangle is .8723. The pair went into this consolidation triangle during an uptrend so, from an Elliott Wave perspective, ultimately one would expect it to break upward.
Bottom line is that there is bullishness in this pair, especially longer term. However, there is short-term pressure. If the pair can cleanly close above the daily triangle today, above .8600, then the short-term bias changes to bullish as well. So how would I trade it? I'd wait for a retracement, possibly back to retest the triangle around .8560. However, because this .8600 is resistance, a stop and reverse would be appropriate if the pair closes below the triangle and better, below .8462.
Support is at .8462, .8356, .8265 and .8068. Resistance is at .8672 for now. I'll update it for next week if the weekly close is above .8600.
Since each pip of this pair is worth 1.63 USD, one might want to establish a smaller position than normal.
Here's the daily chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
First, a long-term consolidation period within a symmetrical triangle began late last summer. There are various ways to define the touching points but one way is with A ending at .8335 (606 pips), B ending at .8649 (314 pips) and C ending at .8356. This is somewhat speculative but because there's a nice 1,2,3 off of B, I like it.
Another feature of interest is the potential inverted head and shoulders pattern. This won't be confirmed until a break above .8672. If it is confirmed, the price target is .9059. This is in line with a target I have on my daily point and figure chart of .9100. The high this past October was .8941. Just beneath here is a confluence zone.
Finally, of course, there is this morning's push over the recent .8593 high. So far, the price high has only been at the round number of .8600 so this is resistance. It's also just above the daily downtrend line.
The monthly chart (not shown) shows the pair in a triangle with the C leg potentially in progress and a possible target of .8271. The upside of the monthly triangle is .8723. The pair went into this consolidation triangle during an uptrend so, from an Elliott Wave perspective, ultimately one would expect it to break upward.
Bottom line is that there is bullishness in this pair, especially longer term. However, there is short-term pressure. If the pair can cleanly close above the daily triangle today, above .8600, then the short-term bias changes to bullish as well. So how would I trade it? I'd wait for a retracement, possibly back to retest the triangle around .8560. However, because this .8600 is resistance, a stop and reverse would be appropriate if the pair closes below the triangle and better, below .8462.
Support is at .8462, .8356, .8265 and .8068. Resistance is at .8672 for now. I'll update it for next week if the weekly close is above .8600.
Since each pip of this pair is worth 1.63 USD, one might want to establish a smaller position than normal.
Here's the daily chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Monday, January 31, 2011
EURGBP—triangle
EURGBP has generally been in an uptrend since late last June but the dip to .8285 was disappointing since it was a lower low than the prior dip to .8335. That's not a huge amount of pips but it's a warning. There are lots of triangles around these days and EURGBP is no exception. Bulls expected price would reach the upper boundary around .8826 before turning but it failed at .8672, quite a bit short of that and just pips above the 12/31 high. The upper boundary is near fib confluence of .8849/10 (.5 and .618 of the move down from .9412 and .9134 respectively). Perhaps it will get there in the next few days but obviously it has to close above .8672. Looking at the large bullsh candle before the last couple of day's pullback, it seems possible. Support is at confluence at .8505 and .8424/00 and then the trend line at .8348. A close below .8285 would bring in support at .8143 and .8068. My inclination is to buy near there or possibly at present levels if momentum shapes up on the shorter term charts.
Here's a daily chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Here's a daily chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Monday, January 24, 2011
EURGBP—nudging above resistance
EURGBP's range last week was .8332 to .8530 with a close near the high at .8514. This morning's high so far is .8536.
The cross is riding Euro's shirttails in its rebound. It remains to be seen whether it can sustain a break above .8530 and get to .8646 (January's high). If it can do so, resistance is at .8646, .8870,( weekly downtrend line from 3/2010), .8941, and .9175 (weekly downtrend line from 3/2009).
On the three-hour chart, the move up looks corrective in three waves. Support is at .8332, .8296/85 (weekly uptrend line from July and prior low), .8143, and .8068.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
The cross is riding Euro's shirttails in its rebound. It remains to be seen whether it can sustain a break above .8530 and get to .8646 (January's high). If it can do so, resistance is at .8646, .8870,( weekly downtrend line from 3/2010), .8941, and .9175 (weekly downtrend line from 3/2009).
On the three-hour chart, the move up looks corrective in three waves. Support is at .8332, .8296/85 (weekly uptrend line from July and prior low), .8143, and .8068.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
EURGBP—not giving up yet
This pair is interesting simply because despite the Euro's woes, it doesn't seem to want to collapse against the British pound. I've been long but bailed out yesterday at +77 pips because of it nearing the .382 retracement of the move from .8941 to .8335 and because of the holidays.
On the weekly chart, there was an outside candle last week with a range from .8345 to .8556 (8566 is the .382 retracement). The low in November was .8340; in December, to date, it has been .8334. The pair is trying to base and trying to overcome that initial resistance of .8566. Beyond that is resistance at .8595 and .8638 (the 50% retracement of 8941 to 8335 and just above the 50% retracement of 9150 to 8068). The 10- and 20-EMA on the weekly chart are within pips of each other at .8515/19 and the monthly 10- and 20-EMA are identical at .8532. Clearly, this current price zone is significant resistance. Failure is probable but what will be more intriguing is if it doesn't fail. That would signal potential gains to .8759 and .8941. However I'd expect middling trading until after the start of the new year.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
On the weekly chart, there was an outside candle last week with a range from .8345 to .8556 (8566 is the .382 retracement). The low in November was .8340; in December, to date, it has been .8334. The pair is trying to base and trying to overcome that initial resistance of .8566. Beyond that is resistance at .8595 and .8638 (the 50% retracement of 8941 to 8335 and just above the 50% retracement of 9150 to 8068). The 10- and 20-EMA on the weekly chart are within pips of each other at .8515/19 and the monthly 10- and 20-EMA are identical at .8532. Clearly, this current price zone is significant resistance. Failure is probable but what will be more intriguing is if it doesn't fail. That would signal potential gains to .8759 and .8941. However I'd expect middling trading until after the start of the new year.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Friday, December 17, 2010
EURGBP—higher
EURGBP managed to move higher this week and with the range of .8526 to .8553 it will be an outside week on the weekly chart. It's also managed two higher highs and one higher low between so this is positive. I took partial profits on my long at .8548. Had I been actively trading this week I might have closed it completely and entered a short. Yet today it has managed to push a bit higher. It looks possible that the pair will hit its next resistance at .8598 and possibly beyond at .8638 and .8731. Above that would be bullish—we'll have to see. In the illiquid holiday markets it seems unlikely the pair could gain that kind of traction.
Support is at .8450/30 and .8334 (doji low from 12/3 week)
Here's the daily chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Support is at .8450/30 and .8334 (doji low from 12/3 week)
Here's the daily chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Monday, December 13, 2010
EURGBP—weekly
The low of the doji from the week ending Dec. 3 (.8334) must hold or the pair is definitely on its way down. Below that is support at .8204, .8068 and .7856. Note on the weekly chart below how steep the angle of descent is—it's not likely that will continue without some sort of correction upwards. If it does reverse upwards, resistance is at .8514, .8549, and .8598.
Here's the weekly chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Here's the weekly chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Thursday, December 9, 2010
EURGBP—correcting
EURGBP looks corrective and I expect it may get up to .8552/95 before it heads down again. This would be near a fib confluence and would complete a corrective C wave. I've gone long at .8392. The low of .8361 should hold for there to be an expectation of further moves up within the channel on the 3-hour chart. Below that is support at .8204, .8068 and .7856.
If it does get to those highs then I plan to reverse.
Here's the three-hour chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
If it does get to those highs then I plan to reverse.
Here's the three-hour chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Thursday, December 2, 2010
EURGBP—correcting
EURGBP is approaching the .8500 resistance which is the downward trend line from October. As I blogged yesterday, November's monthly chart closed with a completed evening star pattern which formed near price resistance—the downtrend line from 2008. This is bearish and .8500 is a short opportunity as long as momentum doesn't increase. There is positive divergence with RSI which is of some concern. If it closes above .8500 on a daily basis, then the next resistance is .8543 (50%) and .8595 (fib confluence and 11/22 high).
Support is at .8390 (9/21 and today's low), .8350/35, .8204, .8068 and .7856.
Here's the daily chart.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Support is at .8390 (9/21 and today's low), .8350/35, .8204, .8068 and .7856.
Here's the daily chart.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
EURGBP—November evening star
The monthly chart shows an evening star pattern which formed near price resistance—the downtrend line from 2008. However the pair is in a triangle with the downward sloping line at .8878 and the upward sloping line at .8204. So a rise to .8878 is possible although the downtrend is bearish overall. There's also a corrective downward channel on the chart. The bottom line of this is at .7856.
Yesterday's low of .8335 was just below the price target of .8363 from the head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart (see Nov. 10th blog). The pair immediately began a rally which has reached .8417. As I wrote yesterday, this is tough resistance up to .8500 and I doubt the pair will overcome it. So I'm using rallies as short opportunities.
Support is at.8350/35, .8204, .8068 and .7856.
Here's the monthly chart.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Yesterday's low of .8335 was just below the price target of .8363 from the head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart (see Nov. 10th blog). The pair immediately began a rally which has reached .8417. As I wrote yesterday, this is tough resistance up to .8500 and I doubt the pair will overcome it. So I'm using rallies as short opportunities.
Support is at.8350/35, .8204, .8068 and .7856.
Here's the monthly chart.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
EURGBP—tumbling to support
With this morning's low of .8366, EURGBP has now retraced more than .618 of the move from .8068 to .8941. It's nearing the head and shoulder target I wrote about on Nov. 10th. Support is at.8350/44 and .8269 (the uptrend line from the July low of .8068). One would expect a rally but last week's outside candle (higher high and lower low than the prior week) along with the long bearish candle for the week ending 11/12 means it's probable the pair may be headed back to .8068. On the monthly chart (not shown) it looks as though an evening star is forming with the completion today. Since the high of this pattern was the downtrend line from December 2008, the pattern is strengthened. Any rally will probably be contained by the tough resistance from .8408 to .8500. So shorting rallies seems to be the way to go if one isn't already short.
Here's the weekly chart.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Here's the weekly chart.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Friday, November 19, 2010
EURGBP—still corrective
In a frustrating week, laced with a lack of meaningful price movement and conflicting signals, this pair has been one of the most frustrating. The little rally up to .8548 is pushing the triangle interpretation I wrote about yesterday and is just above the 10 day SMA. However, I also wrote yesterday that if this is examined as an ABC correction, wave C equals A at .8565. Certainly if it gets much above this, it would have pushed through the 200 daily SMA at .8562 and overcome some resistance lines as well and one would have to consider that higher highs are in store, possibly up to .8630. Until that point, my view is still bearish. I'm not posting a chart since not much has changed from yesterday but if you look at the hourly you can see bearish divergence in RSI.
Strong support is at the Nov. 11th low of .8450. It hammered out a base here and is also the .618 retracement of 8143/8941 and a price support. A clean break through here would be lovely for shorts and upsetting to longs.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Strong support is at the Nov. 11th low of .8450. It hammered out a base here and is also the .618 retracement of 8143/8941 and a price support. A clean break through here would be lovely for shorts and upsetting to longs.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Thursday, November 18, 2010
EURGBP—corrective structure
The pair has been meandering in a corrective structure that could be an ABC correction. I've labeled it on the 1-hour chart as such so the next move should be down. If wave C equaled A the price would be .8565—the pair reached .8552 where it also ran into a couple of resistance lines. The triangle I wrote about yesterday is still a possibility but there's no real fibo relationship between waves ABC which one expects to see. If it was a triangle, one would expect a price target for wave five of at least .8347.
Now to see what happens as it approaches.8463/43. The Nov. 11th low was .8450; this is also the price where it hammered out a base as well as being the .618 retracement of 8143/8941 and a price support. I'm short from .8511 (I was taken out of my first one at breakeven and went back in).
Here's the one-hour chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Now to see what happens as it approaches.8463/43. The Nov. 11th low was .8450; this is also the price where it hammered out a base as well as being the .618 retracement of 8143/8941 and a price support. I'm short from .8511 (I was taken out of my first one at breakeven and went back in).
Here's the one-hour chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
EURGBP—still hovering
Since yesterday morning, the pair is hovering just back inside the daily channel and just below the recent high of .8526.
It's possible to trace out a fourth wave triangle on the three-hour chart and if this true then one could expect a price target for wave five of at least .8347. Certainly a break of Nov. 11th low at .8450 would lend support to this argument. .8450 is where it has tried to hammer a base as well as being the .618 retracement of 8143/8941 and a price support. I'm short from .8511 (I was taken out of my first one at breakeven and went back in).
Eventually the pairs will start to move.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
It's possible to trace out a fourth wave triangle on the three-hour chart and if this true then one could expect a price target for wave five of at least .8347. Certainly a break of Nov. 11th low at .8450 would lend support to this argument. .8450 is where it has tried to hammer a base as well as being the .618 retracement of 8143/8941 and a price support. I'm short from .8511 (I was taken out of my first one at breakeven and went back in).
Eventually the pairs will start to move.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
EURGBP—trying to rally
The pair has peeked back into the daily channel from which it dropped and is hovering around resistance just under .8514. This is after three days of hammering out a base in the .8450 area, the .618 retracement of 8143/8941 and a price support. Additional gains look possible but resistance continues up to .8560. This pair is tricky right now—reasonable arguments can be made for a bear flag, a three-wave corrective structure, an Elliott ending diagonal, and a normal corrective channel, and the confirmed head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart with a price target of .8363 (See last week's blog chart). Unfortunately, they contradict each other.
I'm holding off on charts this morning as the market is churning—trying to find direction.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
I'm holding off on charts this morning as the market is churning—trying to find direction.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Monday, November 15, 2010
EURGBP—looks weak
I'm still short from Friday's .8509 and the high since then is .8514. Last week was the third week in a row with lower highs and lower lows and the week ended with a long bearish candle. On the monthly chart with the bearish November to date, there may be an evening star forming off the high of .8941. It's bearish potential is strengthened by this high being almost right on the 50% resistance line of the move from 9805 to 8067. Currently, the pair is retesting the downward channel from which it fell below. There's a confirmed head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart with a price target of .8363 (See last week's blog chart). An additional price target of .8190 comes from a shorter-term point and figure chart.
Offsetting all this is that the decline has found support at .8450, almost spot on the .628 retracement of 8143/8941 and a price support. On the monthly chart below, despite the potential evening start, one can make the case for a three-wave corrective structure which would mean another move up at some point, possibly to parity. However, I think a deeper pullback is more likely before that would happen based on the shorter-term signals.
Here's the monthly chart. My trade doesn't show because I use a different charting package for long term charts.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Offsetting all this is that the decline has found support at .8450, almost spot on the .628 retracement of 8143/8941 and a price support. On the monthly chart below, despite the potential evening start, one can make the case for a three-wave corrective structure which would mean another move up at some point, possibly to parity. However, I think a deeper pullback is more likely before that would happen based on the shorter-term signals.
Here's the monthly chart. My trade doesn't show because I use a different charting package for long term charts.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Friday, November 12, 2010
EURGBP—.8455 key
This pair came into the week with mixed signals—evidence was there for longs as I wrote earlier in the week but there was also a confirmed head and shoulders pattern on the charts. The drop looked like that could be the overriding factor but the pair hasn't been able to move lower than .8455, a fib level and price support. Now it has climbed back to the bottom of the downward channel on the daily chart where it will either fail for sure or lumber back in and head up from its bear trap. On the weekly chart (not shown), it's hard to say the wave structure looks anything but corrective with wave C over. Should be an interesting week next week.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Thursday, November 11, 2010
EURGBP—dropping
The pair broke below .8525 to reach a low of .8501 this morning (so far). My long from .8529 stopped out at -10 pips. Ten pips might seem to some a too tight stop but the pair should have based in here at least according to every approach I use to trading. So I was OK with it. I wrote yesterday that if the pair broke much below .8525/00, " I'll probably stop and reverse, looking for additional moves down." Hovering right at .8501 for now doesn't quite cut it but I'm watching it. This is a serious breach of support (see yesterday's first blog on this pair for why) and if the pair doesn't rally quickly then I'd say the bears have control. I'd then trade according to the confirmed head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart that I wrote about yesterday. Below .8500 support is at .8449, .8403, .8355, and .8300. Potentially one could see a drop back to .8068 and below.
No chart until the pair makes a definitive move.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
No chart until the pair makes a definitive move.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
EURGBP—update
While I believe in my early morning analysis and went long at .8529, performance so far is less than stellar. The pair is being weighed down by Euro in general and by the move up of Cable. The hourly chart shows that for the last three hours EURGBP is hammering out a base. If this base fails, that is if there is a break much below .8525/00, I'll probably stop and reverse, looking for additional moves down.
Here's the hourly chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Here's the hourly chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURGBP—fish or cut bait
It's getting very close to the point where this pair needs to fish or cut bait if one is to believe the major trend is up in this pair. Here's why. The price has dropped from a high of .8945 to a low so far this morning of .8551. The 50% retracement point of the move from .8143 to .8945 is .8544; If this is leg C of a three-wave correction, C equals A at .8526; the bottom line of the corrective channel on the daily chart is at .8541. In addition, .8531 was key resistance that the pair broke above in September. So there's four pieces of information that the pair is reaching a strong support area and I intend to buy. If it does provide support and the pair rallies then the potential is for .8735 (top of corrective channel and fib confluence), .8821 (prior high) and then another attempt at .8945. Favoring buying, one can see positive divergence on the shorter-term charts (3- and 1-hour).
These are probabilities for the upside if support holds. What if it doesn't? .8506/00 is the next support (round number and 50% of .8068 to .8945 move). Then there's .9449, .8403, .8355, and .8300. Potentially one could see a drop back to .8068 and below. An argument can be made for .8355 if you assume that a Head and Shoulder pattern has formed with .8652 as the confirmation point. I've marked the head and should in red. If this is true then it would lend credence to the idea that even if this is leg C of a three-wave correction, C could be 1.618 that of A for a price of .8182.
Here's the daily chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
These are probabilities for the upside if support holds. What if it doesn't? .8506/00 is the next support (round number and 50% of .8068 to .8945 move). Then there's .9449, .8403, .8355, and .8300. Potentially one could see a drop back to .8068 and below. An argument can be made for .8355 if you assume that a Head and Shoulder pattern has formed with .8652 as the confirmation point. I've marked the head and should in red. If this is true then it would lend credence to the idea that even if this is leg C of a three-wave correction, C could be 1.618 that of A for a price of .8182.
Here's the daily chart:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
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