EUR/USD Monday Morning

I'm still short the Euro but I did close out more than half of my position a little while ago. Take a look at the following 3 hour chart. It's still showing the weakness in the shorter time frame that I wrote about last week and some nice selling came in early in the Asian session last night. Then you see the hammer so the behavior of the current candle is going to determine whether the pair will continue to break down or whether it's going to pick up strength. Given the overall bullish sentiment and given the fact of triple witching this week (see my Sunday post), it's time to lighten up shorts for now. My stop is above the high this month of 1.4635 but I closed enough of my position that I will still be at slight profit on the trade as a whole if it takes out my stop.

The hourly chart also supports my decision to lighten up on my short. Although there is still weakness showing--the divergence between RSI and price and the breaking down through the upward trend line for both RSI and price, the market is slightly expanding rather than contracting. It will take a high above 1.4622 to maintain this expansion (and since high from last week is 1.4635 it would ideally close above that to show a continuing pattern of higher highs and higher lows). Why not take the paltry profit and get out completely at this point? Well, we're at a very interesting price level based on my Gann analysis on the numbers of extreme highs and lows and of the fib level 1.4623 from high of 1.6041 to low of 1.2329. So we'll just have to see and the only way to see is to watch the price action.

None of the above is a trade recommendation. It's only my musings. We all know that trading carries a substantial degree of risk.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2009. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

Triple Witching Week

This week is triple witching week which happens once a quarter on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. For the last five years, pairs such as the Euro, GBP, and AUD have usually ended such weeks up although five years does not a statistical study make. All the expiration activity doesn't seem to predict future prices but of course your limit and stop orders can sometimes be triggered. Just one more variable that can interfere with technical analysis.