In line with the post I just made on risk, I think that Bruce Kovner's words in Jack Schwager's book Market Wizards (2006) are very useful:
I would say risk management is the most important thing to be well understood.
Undertrade, undertrade, undertrade is my second piece of advice. Whatever you
think your position ought to be, cut it at least in half (p. 82).
Showing posts with label risk. Show all posts
Showing posts with label risk. Show all posts
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Will I get back in AUD/USD?
As I wrote in the last post, my profit target in the Ozzie was hit overnight. This morning the pair reached a high of .8729, a high not seen since the summer of 2008. Now I’m wondering how and when I can get back into the pair. I’ve posted the three hour chart below.
Remember that the consolidation range was.8543 to .8676. I pointed out in my post on Monday that false and premature breakouts are not uncommon with rectangles. One obvious strategy is to wait to see if the price goes back to .8676. I’d then go long with a tight stop. This approach requires watching the price action carefully at the time it approaches that price. Carefully, means I’d look for bullish signs before jumping in. Another entry point, assuming the breakout was premature, is to wait until it reaches the three-hour uptrend line which is also at the point of the 62 EMA. This is at .8587 now but of course that could change a bit by time price gets back to it.
There is bearish divergence between price and RSI right now. I need to watch that, too. Here’s the three hour chart:
As usual, I’ll just have to continue to study price action.
None of the above is a trade recommendation of course. Remember that trading involves substantial risk.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2009. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
Remember that the consolidation range was.8543 to .8676. I pointed out in my post on Monday that false and premature breakouts are not uncommon with rectangles. One obvious strategy is to wait to see if the price goes back to .8676. I’d then go long with a tight stop. This approach requires watching the price action carefully at the time it approaches that price. Carefully, means I’d look for bullish signs before jumping in. Another entry point, assuming the breakout was premature, is to wait until it reaches the three-hour uptrend line which is also at the point of the 62 EMA. This is at .8587 now but of course that could change a bit by time price gets back to it.
There is bearish divergence between price and RSI right now. I need to watch that, too. Here’s the three hour chart:
As usual, I’ll just have to continue to study price action.
None of the above is a trade recommendation of course. Remember that trading involves substantial risk.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2009. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
Monday, September 14, 2009
AUD/USD
Last Thursday I went long the AUD/USD at .8586. I moved my stop Friday to .8596 and was taken out last night during the Asian session at that price. I just went long again at .8570 so I’m in at a slightly better price than the last trade. Had I not been mucking about with the Euro charts for so long or not gone for a cup of coffee I might have noticed when it hit the near bottom of the range but there you go.
One thing I won’t do in this blog is hypothesize about possible trades. Lots of people put out a lot of analysis that has nothing to do with whether or not they’re really trading. Jessie Livermore tells the story of a guy who was going to fight a dual the next day (Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, page 27).
His second asked him, “Are you a good shot?”
Well, said the dualist, “I can snap the stem of a wineglass at twenty paces,” and he looked modest.
“That’s all very well,” said the unimpressed second. “But can you snap the stem of the wineglass while the wineglass is pointing a loaded pistol straight at your heart?”
Like Jessie, I need to back my opinions with my money.
Looking at the three hour chart, there’s a range of .8543 to .8676. Another thing that struck me on the chart was the beautiful symmetry of the moves back in August. From there it moved out of its triangle and is currently in a consolidation range. It’s showing some symmetry here as well.
Notice that it’s well above the .618 retracement of the July to October ’08 move down. And, as I wrote last week, this .8500 area is significant historically, all the way back to the 1980s. My Gann calculations on different highs and lows also show the significance of this area. It has also cleared the .8524 high from back in September ‘08. Why do I consider that high significant? Because it was the last high before the egregious move down. So if it can get above its current range high of 8676 it might have some significant moves ahead. If it breaks below, it will also be significant.
With a trading range such as this, also known as a rectangle, box, or horizontal channel, the price must touch the support and resistance lines at least twice. Edwards and Magee, in their classic work Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, believed ranges were most often continuation patterns. It’s also worth noting that there are many false and premature breakouts (Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Bulkowski, 2000). Regardless, the pair will exit this range eventually. Even if you just trade support and resistance though, it’s a wide enough rectangle that you could pick up 70 to 100 pips with tight stops. However I’m hoping to not have that kind of trade because both the upside and downside on a breakout offers much more potential profit.
Another thing I like about the pair on this chart is that RSI isn’t falling too far on the reactions. That’s a bullish sign. I use RSI primarily for divergences and for such things as this and not usually for buy or sell signals depending on overbought or oversold levels. There is one concern here, though, in that the RSI is showing momentum is falling off so there is some divergence.
As usual, I’ll just have to continue to study price action. And of course I have a tight stop since I entered near the bottom of the range.
None of the above is a trade recommendation of course. Remember that trading involves substantial risk.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2009. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
One thing I won’t do in this blog is hypothesize about possible trades. Lots of people put out a lot of analysis that has nothing to do with whether or not they’re really trading. Jessie Livermore tells the story of a guy who was going to fight a dual the next day (Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, page 27).
His second asked him, “Are you a good shot?”
Well, said the dualist, “I can snap the stem of a wineglass at twenty paces,” and he looked modest.
“That’s all very well,” said the unimpressed second. “But can you snap the stem of the wineglass while the wineglass is pointing a loaded pistol straight at your heart?”
Like Jessie, I need to back my opinions with my money.
Looking at the three hour chart, there’s a range of .8543 to .8676. Another thing that struck me on the chart was the beautiful symmetry of the moves back in August. From there it moved out of its triangle and is currently in a consolidation range. It’s showing some symmetry here as well.
Notice that it’s well above the .618 retracement of the July to October ’08 move down. And, as I wrote last week, this .8500 area is significant historically, all the way back to the 1980s. My Gann calculations on different highs and lows also show the significance of this area. It has also cleared the .8524 high from back in September ‘08. Why do I consider that high significant? Because it was the last high before the egregious move down. So if it can get above its current range high of 8676 it might have some significant moves ahead. If it breaks below, it will also be significant.
With a trading range such as this, also known as a rectangle, box, or horizontal channel, the price must touch the support and resistance lines at least twice. Edwards and Magee, in their classic work Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, believed ranges were most often continuation patterns. It’s also worth noting that there are many false and premature breakouts (Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, Bulkowski, 2000). Regardless, the pair will exit this range eventually. Even if you just trade support and resistance though, it’s a wide enough rectangle that you could pick up 70 to 100 pips with tight stops. However I’m hoping to not have that kind of trade because both the upside and downside on a breakout offers much more potential profit.
Another thing I like about the pair on this chart is that RSI isn’t falling too far on the reactions. That’s a bullish sign. I use RSI primarily for divergences and for such things as this and not usually for buy or sell signals depending on overbought or oversold levels. There is one concern here, though, in that the RSI is showing momentum is falling off so there is some divergence.
As usual, I’ll just have to continue to study price action. And of course I have a tight stop since I entered near the bottom of the range.
None of the above is a trade recommendation of course. Remember that trading involves substantial risk.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2009. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
EUR/USD Monday Morning
I'm still short the Euro but I did close out more than half of my position a little while ago. Take a look at the following 3 hour chart. It's still showing the weakness in the shorter time frame that I wrote about last week and some nice selling came in early in the Asian session last night. Then you see the hammer so the behavior of the current candle is going to determine whether the pair will continue to break down or whether it's going to pick up strength. Given the overall bullish sentiment and given the fact of triple witching this week (see my Sunday post), it's time to lighten up shorts for now. My stop is above the high this month of 1.4635 but I closed enough of my position that I will still be at slight profit on the trade as a whole if it takes out my stop. 
The hourly chart also supports my decision to lighten up on my short. Although there is still weakness showing--the divergence between RSI and price and the breaking down through the upward trend line for both RSI and price, the market is slightly expanding rather than contracting. It will take a high above 1.4622 to maintain this expansion (and since high from last week is 1.4635 it would ideally close above that to show a continuing pattern of higher highs and higher lows). Why not take the paltry profit and get out completely at this point? Well, we're at a very interesting price level based on my Gann analysis on the numbers of extreme highs and lows and of the fib level 1.4623 from high of 1.6041 to low of 1.2329. So we'll just have to see and the only way to see is to watch the price action.
None of the above is a trade recommendation. It's only my musings. We all know that trading carries a substantial degree of risk.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2009. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2009. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
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