Euro has pushed up to 1.4370 with good momentum on the short-term charts. If it easily takes out 1.4385 and the psychological 1.44, the key resistance of 1.4428/50 will be the next target.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Tuesday, June 28, 2011
EURUSD—wavering
The bears certainly expected Euro to begin its plunge by now, especially those who believe price is within a third wave down. The bulls would like to see it scoot up and take out 1.4442 (June 22 high) and then the 1.4697 prior high. Both sides are bound to be somewhat frustrated as it plays its small moves with no definitive action.
Those who went short in the 1.42 area are probably approaching stops. This may fuel some additional price rise. However, logical resistance is the 1.4385 confluence area, 1.4378 (weekly pivot R1 calculation) and 1.4428/50 which is key resistance.
On both a weekly and daily basis, there is a bearish bias. However, RSI lows on the daily chart are not as low as one would expect to see if the bears had true control. The daily uptrend line (since January), broken with the June 16, 1.4074 low, has been serving as a magnet line for price.
On my three-hour point and figure chart, Euro is caught in a symmetrical triangle with small columns of X and O. This only means that supply and demand are approximately equal. Underlying this, though, is the real question of whether accumulation or distribution is taking place. There needs to be a definitive move one way or the other to answer this question.
I may try a short in the 1.4340/85 area. I'll post a chart when there is a more definitive move.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Those who went short in the 1.42 area are probably approaching stops. This may fuel some additional price rise. However, logical resistance is the 1.4385 confluence area, 1.4378 (weekly pivot R1 calculation) and 1.4428/50 which is key resistance.
On both a weekly and daily basis, there is a bearish bias. However, RSI lows on the daily chart are not as low as one would expect to see if the bears had true control. The daily uptrend line (since January), broken with the June 16, 1.4074 low, has been serving as a magnet line for price.
On my three-hour point and figure chart, Euro is caught in a symmetrical triangle with small columns of X and O. This only means that supply and demand are approximately equal. Underlying this, though, is the real question of whether accumulation or distribution is taking place. There needs to be a definitive move one way or the other to answer this question.
I may try a short in the 1.4340/85 area. I'll post a chart when there is a more definitive move.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Monday, June 27, 2011
Friday close, pivot, SMA
For each of the following nine pairs, I've listed the Friday close, the annual pivot points, the 200- and 100-SMA, and the close for 31 Dec. 2010. I look at a series of comparisons such as this every week. While I don't care so much where a market has been as where it is going, some items pop out when you compare various parameters.
First, all pairs except for USD led pairs (USDCAD, USDCHF, and USDCHF) are above their 2010 year-end close. This is generally positive. However, if one considers the highs for the year for each pair, all pairs that are above their 2010 close are below their highs for the year. Of the three below their 2010 close, the USDCAD and USDJPY are above their lows.
Five pairs are below their annual pivot points. In addition to the USD-led pairs mentioned above, both EURJPY and GBPJPY are below.
Four pairs are above their daily 200-SMA. These are AUDUSD, EURGBP, EURJPY (barely), and EURUSD. When price is below a 200-day SMA, it is often bearish. Three pairs are above their daily 100-SMA, AUDUSD, EURGBP, and USDCAD. Surprising about the latter—it is worth watching to see if it maintains that and the 100 serves as support.
I also watch the 50-daily SMA and I am always interested when there is a 50 crossing the 100 or 200, particularly if it occurs in conjunction with a pattern.
Nothing here is definitive unless used in conjunction with other analysis. It is just something to think about.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
First, all pairs except for USD led pairs (USDCAD, USDCHF, and USDCHF) are above their 2010 year-end close. This is generally positive. However, if one considers the highs for the year for each pair, all pairs that are above their 2010 close are below their highs for the year. Of the three below their 2010 close, the USDCAD and USDJPY are above their lows.
Five pairs are below their annual pivot points. In addition to the USD-led pairs mentioned above, both EURJPY and GBPJPY are below.
Four pairs are above their daily 200-SMA. These are AUDUSD, EURGBP, EURJPY (barely), and EURUSD. When price is below a 200-day SMA, it is often bearish. Three pairs are above their daily 100-SMA, AUDUSD, EURGBP, and USDCAD. Surprising about the latter—it is worth watching to see if it maintains that and the 100 serves as support.
I also watch the 50-daily SMA and I am always interested when there is a 50 crossing the 100 or 200, particularly if it occurs in conjunction with a pattern.
Nothing here is definitive unless used in conjunction with other analysis. It is just something to think about.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Friday, June 24, 2011
Thursday, June 23, 2011
EURUSD—broke 1.42
A bit of battle between buyers and sellers went on between 1.4212 and 1.4236 but supply prevailed (so far) and has pushed Euro to a low of 1.4187. This is just below the June 20 low of 1.4192. It would strengthen the bearish case to have an hourly close below there.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—lower
Key resistance at 1.4428/50 held nicely. Euro broke below the uptrend line of the rectangle and the 21-SMA on the four-hour chart that I blogged about yesterday. The low so far this morning is 1.4235. This implies that the move up from 1.4074 was an ABC correction (A= 1.4074/1.4340; b=1.4340/1.4192 and C topped out close to the point where C would equal A).
I missed the break, having knocked off early yesterday to run around town checking out dog kennels for boarding our puppy. Sometimes the home front calls. However, a rally is possible, given that the current low is close to the 50% point of the move up from 1.4074 to 1.4442. The pair might rally to 1.4328 (the 21-SMA on the four hour chart) or 1.4381, the breakout point from the rectangle. Additional resistance derives from the weekly 10-EMA (1.4317), and two fib levels (.382 of 1.3429/1.4942 at 1.4364 and .382 of 1.4942/1.3970 at 1.4341). With a rally, I'd sell weakness. If the rally does not happen (and it might not if we're in a third wave), then I will enter on smaller rallies with weakness on much shorter-term charts.
However, it's important to remember that until price drops below 1.4074, thus creating a lower low, there is still resistance up to 1.4697.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
I missed the break, having knocked off early yesterday to run around town checking out dog kennels for boarding our puppy. Sometimes the home front calls. However, a rally is possible, given that the current low is close to the 50% point of the move up from 1.4074 to 1.4442. The pair might rally to 1.4328 (the 21-SMA on the four hour chart) or 1.4381, the breakout point from the rectangle. Additional resistance derives from the weekly 10-EMA (1.4317), and two fib levels (.382 of 1.3429/1.4942 at 1.4364 and .382 of 1.4942/1.3970 at 1.4341). With a rally, I'd sell weakness. If the rally does not happen (and it might not if we're in a third wave), then I will enter on smaller rallies with weakness on much shorter-term charts.
However, it's important to remember that until price drops below 1.4074, thus creating a lower low, there is still resistance up to 1.4697.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Wednesday, June 22, 2011
EURGBP—contrast with EURUSD
Contrast the EURGBP with the price behavior of EURUSD. On the four-hour chart, there is strong move up, especially with the last two candles. This pair, too, is rising within an upward sloping rectangle so it is time to take some profits on my long as it approaches that point. The longer, downtrend resistance line is coming in just above that boundary. However, note that unlike the Euro, momentum, as reflected in RSI, is also maintaining its uptrend line. It is interesting that on this pair, as with the Euro, the 21-SMA is tracking the lower boundary of the rectangle.
EURGBP offered clearer buying signals after weekend analysis than did EURUSD. For example, the week ending 17 June closed with a hammer candle near a support level in the context of what appeared to be a corrective move within an overall uptrend.
Resistance is at .8938/76 (monthly pivot R2, downtrend line, rectangle upper boundary, June 8 high) and .9044.
Here is the four-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURGBP offered clearer buying signals after weekend analysis than did EURUSD. For example, the week ending 17 June closed with a hammer candle near a support level in the context of what appeared to be a corrective move within an overall uptrend.
Resistance is at .8938/76 (monthly pivot R2, downtrend line, rectangle upper boundary, June 8 high) and .9044.
Here is the four-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
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