Friday close, pivot, SMA

For each of the following nine pairs, I've listed the Friday close, the annual pivot points, the 200- and 100-SMA, and the close for 31 Dec. 2010. I look at a series of comparisons such as this every week. While I don't care so much where a market has been as where it is going, some items pop out when you compare various parameters.

First, all pairs except for USD led pairs (USDCAD, USDCHF, and USDCHF) are above their 2010 year-end close. This is generally positive. However, if one considers the highs for the year for each pair, all pairs that are above their 2010 close are below their highs for the year. Of the three below their 2010 close, the USDCAD and USDJPY are above their lows.

Five pairs are below their annual pivot points. In addition to the USD-led pairs mentioned above, both EURJPY and GBPJPY are below.

Four pairs are above their daily 200-SMA. These are AUDUSD, EURGBP, EURJPY (barely), and EURUSD. When price is below a 200-day SMA, it is often bearish. Three pairs are above their daily 100-SMA, AUDUSD, EURGBP, and USDCAD. Surprising about the latter—it is worth watching to see if it maintains that and the 100 serves as support.

I also watch the 50-daily SMA and I am always interested when there is a 50 crossing the 100 or 200, particularly if it occurs in conjunction with a pattern.

Nothing here is definitive unless used in conjunction with other analysis. It is just something to think about.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

Week High, Low, Close

Weekly High Low Close

Weekly High Low Close

Week Ending 22 April 2010

Week Ending 15 April 2011—High, Low, Close

Weekly High, Low and Close

Inside Weeks

A few of the pairs I watch had inside weeks with Friday's close. These were USDCAD, USDCHF, USDJPY and, by one pip on the topside, EURJPY.

Inside candles, regardless of time period, are those candles with a price range that is within the prior candle's range. They represent a congestion or consolidation period and are more meaningful when they aren't part of a larger pattern, i.e. a triangle. The reason they're less significant in a larger pattern is that they're still reflecting the lack of significant movement in that larger pattern. Various trading strategies use inside bars. I don't consider them a signal in and of themselves but they're something to be aware of, particularly regarding their high and low as potential resistance and support respectively. Obviously, it's more meaningful if these correlate with other support and resistance. For example, with EURJPY, the high is near general price resistance.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

Weekly High, Low and Close

Week Ending Numbers

These are the high, low and close numbers for the past week:

Week Ending Numbers

Here are the high, low and close for last week:















© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

Currency market today

With the destructive earthquake and tsunami off Japan, the market is in a risk averse mood and prices are dropping in many pairs. In a recap of the week so far as of 9:20AM EST:

AUDUSD has had a challenging week, dropping from a high of 1.0202 last week to a low of .9969 today. This is strong support—it includes the monthly pivot, the 100 daily SMA and confluence. Currently the pair is trying to base. If it can't then Aussie may be heading towards a weekly close lower than parity, something that hasn't occurred since the end of January. There has been no daily close below parity since February 15.

EURGBP has struggled with resistance this week with a high through yesterday of .8608, only one pip higher than last week. Lows have been mostly lower this week but Thursday's candle had a long lower shadow, indicating that the pair is rejecting lower prices. The low of the shadow was .8534. The pair has bounced back up to .8600. This should confirm the support zone in the .8500 range. There's a potential inverted head and shoulders pattern that requires a break.8672 for confirmation.

EURJPY hasn't followed through on last week's spike high to 116.01. Throughout the week, the pair lingered in a narrow range of 114.21 to 115.26. This morning, though, it's suffering from the risk aversion downdraft, dropping to a low of 112.93 so far today. This is bearish. It's having a tough time rallying. However, there is strong support in the 111.50/112.79 zone, provided by daily moving averages, monthly pivot, prior lows and .618 retracement of the 110.67/116.01 move. If this support zone fails, additional support is at 110.77 and 109.58. The bottom of the bear flag on the weekly chart is near 107.50.

EURUSD disappointed the Euro bulls this week, dropping from last week's high of 1.4007 to a low so far today of 1.3752. On the way, it destroyed key support at 1.3880/3800. Next is a support zone between 1.3732 (50% retracement and last week's low) and 1.3685 (fib confluence). Yes, risk aversion. However, as I wrote several times this week, the move from 1.3429, while strong, looked corrective rather than impulsive. In addition, the 1.4036 high looks as though it completed an ABC correction from 1.2874 on the daily chart. It satisfies a fib relationship as well. If the downtrend continues, it's in line with the longer-term weekly and monthly charts.

GBPJPY dropped to a low of 131.18 this morning, puncturing the 200-day moving average. It's possible that the Guppy will complete its .618 retracement and retest its prior low at 129.50/25. If it failed there, then expect 125.51. However, I'd expect a rally at some point. The pair recently broke above a long-term trend line and closed above the 200-day moving average. These are bullish signs.

GBPUSD has been hammered this week with lower highs each day this week. This morning things became worse—it pierced a prior low of 1.6032 and traveled on to 1.5977. Key support is at 1.5963. That's a .382 retracement of the entire move from 1.5345, the Feb. 11 low, and confluence. Below 1.5752, the outlook would be very bearish.


USDCAD has managed to stabilize a bit, staying above last week's low of .9684. Until yesterday, the high was .9767, still below last week's high of .9790. This morning it touched .9804. The 2008 low was .9711. This is a key support level and if the bulls can't defend it, the price target from the weekly triangle of .9549 is still possible.

USDCHF stayed above its dismal .9202 low from last week as well but isn't exactly robust. The high so far this week has only been .9369. Price needs to get above .9506.

USDJPY has been lackluster this week. The high has been 83.30. The low today has been 82.01. Bottom line is it's still within its range of 80.94 to 83.97. I'll continue to trade that range for now.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

Weekly Numbers

Here are the highs, lows, and closing numbers for the week ending 4 March 2011:

Currency market today

In a recap of the week so far as of 10:15AM EST:

AUDUSD reached 1.0202 Monday but has had rough going since then, reaching a low of 1.0075 this morning, lower than the 3/2 low at 1.0086. However, this could be the beginning of a downward slanting rectangle where price will consolidate. The upper boundary of this (drawn on the four-hour chart) is 1.0185. The 50 daily moving average is at 1.0041 and the 100 is at .9958. Aussie hasn't had a weekly close below parity since the end of January and no daily close below parity since February 15. Let's see how it closes today.

EURGBP has had a good week, climbing from its weekly close last Friday of .8533 to a high of .8600 this morning. This is resistance so what it does here is going to set the tone for future price action. There's a potential inverted head and shoulders pattern that requires a break.8672 for confirmation. A close greater than .8600 this week would be bullish.

EURJPY finally climbed above 115.69 today, touching 116.01! That's been a long time coming. Ideally, the pair will close above 115.69 this week. If it does so, that's very bullish. Price is above the 200 daily moving average and the pair is above a resistance line on longer-term charts. However, 116.14 is the upper boundary of the bear flag on the monthly chart I posted the other day so I wouldn’t be surprised to see some consolidation take place. Definitely a pair to buy on a retracement, perhaps to 114.50.

EURUSD pushed on up this morning, touching 1.4007, a big psychological barrier. Price targets are present on up to 1.4060 where there's some good resistance. A weekly close greater than 1.3862 is all it's going to take to maintain bullish momentum for now. There's good support around 1.3880/50 so anyone not already long might find an entry at that level.

GBPJPY spiked to 135.24 this morning. February's high was 135.54 so that's the price to exceed. However, there's formidable resistance here, both on short- and long-term charts. It could push somewhat higher to 136.53 (the point where wave C would equal A on an ABC structure off the low of 125.51). At that point, though, I'd expect to see a nice retracement, possibly to 129.50/25. This is .618 of the move up from 125.51and the prior swing low at 129.52. Obviously, a close above 135.54 would be strongly bullish. Coupled with the break recently over a long-term trend line, one would want to be long. There's potential for price to move up to 141.19 (confluence) and 145.98, last April's high.

GBPUSD had done a nice job this week, taking over its 1.63 resistance with a spike to 1.6344 yesterday. 1.6465 is possible in the near term. While a weekly close above 1.6300 would be nicely bullish, it might be a lot to expect at this point. The pair dropped to a low of 1.6236 today. The daily 10-SMA is at 1.6225; the 20 at 1.6168. Price needs to stay above those at least.

USDCAD continues to sink. Gee, that's what I wrote that last Friday. Well it's true again this week with a new low of .9684. This is below the 2008 low of .9711 so the bears are fierce. I also wrote last week that below .9711 there's not a lot stopping it until it reaches .9417. The triangle price target was .9549. A break in oil prices downward would relieve some pressure on this pair. How likely is that?

USDCHF managed a low of .9202 this week, a real bummer for those expecting the USD to rally anytime soon. As I wrote last week, I prepared charts earlier this year that show it could get to 90 and it seems to be on its way. The high this week was .9331, quite a bit lower than last week's high of .9506. This was just above a prior support level so it's strong resistance. I will note that the sentiment seems extreme. When everyone's bearish or bullish, there aren't many people left to continue to drive price in the direction everyone expects it to go. I wrote the other day that 75.62 is do or die support for the USD index. It hasn't gotten there yet.

USDJPY is caught in a narrow range from 80.94 to 83.97. A close outside those boundaries would be significant. Until then, trade the range.

Week ending 25 Feb 2011—high, low, close

Currency market today

In a recap of the week so far as of 9:30AM EST:

AUDUSD has moved from a low of .9968 on Tuesday to a high of 1.0152 so far today, the highest price since last Friday's 1.0058. While price action has been choppy this week, the pair has managed to stay above parity for the most part. There have been only two closes below parity the entire month. The current price action is at resistance but should it make it through, next resistance is at 1.0200 and then of course 1.0257. Beyond that, one can assume that the longer-term uptrend is resuming. Only below .9804 would the bears begin to get excited and below .9537, there'd be blood in the streets. Obviously, the pair is well above those levels despite bearish candle formations on the longer-term charts.

EURGBP reached a high of .8593 this morning, its highest high since February 1. Beyond this is resistance at .8649/72, .8818 and .8941. On the daily chart, this could be shaping into a triple top (.8649 on 12/31; .8672 on 1/26). However, confirmation of the triple top won't come until price drops below .8285, quite a ways down and with some good support in the way. Nearest support is .8531 and .8500.

EURJPY is in a corrective pattern and yesterday formed a doji candle with a low of 112.20. This pushed it below the 10- and 20-day moving averages. It's still above the 50-, 100-, and 200-day averages and above the long-term downtrend line on the weekly chart. However, bulls are waiting on moves above 115.69 in the short-term and then 119.66. On the downside, 106.83 and 105.44 are the support levels to watch as a close below would signal resumption of the longer-term downtrend. Near-term support is quite a bit above those numbers at 111.24, 110.77 and 109.58.

EURUSD really needs to climb above the February 1st high of 1.3862. It's trying. The high yesterday was 1.3838. A close above 1.38 this week would be bullish. 1.3700 is the first support level to watch—the low so far this morning has been 1.3743. After that is 1.3650 and then 1.3594, 1.3524, and 1.3429, the low for the month. Obviously, bulls are hoping to see 1.40 sometime soon. Next week's price action should be interesting.

GBPJPY is still above a long-term monthly downtrend line but has dipped below the 200-day moving average today with a low, so far, of 131.38. The low for the month was 1.3091 on February 1st. This week has seen choppy price action in many pairs and this one is no different. The pair made a new high last week at 135.54 so there is bullish price behavior to contend with even though the pair is currently correcting. I'd expect 129.25 to contain the correction (.618 of the move up from 125.51) and before that is the prior swing low at 129.52. Resistance is at 135.54, 136.24, and 137.79.

GBPUSD has had a higher close each week this month and this is bullish as long as it holds above 1.5963. However, there's a potential for a double top formation with the high of 1.6300 in early November and the high of 1.6282 in early February. The high this week has been 1.6276. There is no confirmation of the potential double top until price broke below 1.5345, quite a ways below here. If cable can maintain its bullish behavior, expect to see 1.6300, 1.6461 and 1.6878.

USDCAD continues to sink. The low so far this morning is .9796. Support is at .9771 and then .9711, the 2008 low. Below that there's not a lot stopping it until it reaches .9417. The triangle price target was .9549. The only good thing you can say is that if you want to try a long position, the stop can be very tight. Resistance is at .9960 and 1.0058.

USDCHF is another suffering pair with a low yesterday of .9234. This has broken below most reasonable projections of support. I prepared charts earlier this year that show it could get to 90 and it seems to be on its way. The weekly high was .9506. One needs to see a move above that to believe it's recovering but until it can climb above .9784, there's not a lot to say.

USDJPY: The month's high was 83.97, reached the 16th and the pair has been dropping since then with a low so far this morning of 81.66. This is near key support at 81.35. Below this is 81.10 and 80.24. 83.91 is likely to be resistance, the downtrend line of the monthly wedge pattern.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

Prices compared to 2010 year end

The chart below shows that only the Aussie, EURGBP, and USDCAD have gone down so far this year. GBPJPY has gained the most in both pips and percent and all the yen crosses have done well in general.












© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

Week ending 11 Feb 2011—high, low, close

Week ending 4 Feb 2011

Here are last week's high, low and close numbers:

© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

Currency market today

In a recap of the week so far as of 10:15AM EST:

AUDUSD reached 1.0200 this morning after a week that has had higher lows each day this week and mostly higher highs (exception was Wednesday where the high was only slightly below that of Tuesday). During the week, it confirmed the January double bottom (.9804 on 1/11 and .9833 on 1/20) with its break above 1.0077. The price target from this is 1.0350. The daily chart sported a triangle that Aussie broke above as expected. The price target from this is 1.0307. Finally, there was also a bull flag on the daily chart. Price broke above; the target is 1.0378. With the series of clustered targets, it seems likely the pair will make it. I even have price targets beyond 1.0400. However, it's not likely to reach those without some retracement from the 102 range as there's other resistance there. There's currently some negative divergence on the three-hour chart—something to keep an eye on. Support is at 1.0109 and 1.0055 in the short term. A break below .9804 would be bearish and selling would likely take place with the potential to push price down further to .9690, .9612 and .9544/32. However, there'd also be buyers coming at .9804 so it would likely be quite a battle. There are also the two occurrences of bearish candle formations on the weekly chart to keep an eye on. Nevertheless, so far, at least this week, the bulls are firmly in control.

EURGBP has ranged from a high of .8619 this past Monday to this morning's low of .8424 (forming a hammer on the three-hour chart so this is the first support level. Additional support is at .8400, .8332 and .8285. Falling below .8285 would be very negative, likely bringing in more sellers to possibly push price down to .8143 and then .8068. Resistance is at .8582, .8672, .8818 and .8941. Momentum and volatility will hold clues to future price movements.

EURJPY had a corrective week after last week's high of 114.01. Yesterday showed a 182-pip drop and the pair has edged below its 20 daily SMA. Its low this morning is 110.77. Below here is support at 110.32, 109.58 (nice support), 108.71, 107.62 and 106.83. Depending on momentum behavior, this pair might be a good buy in the lower 110 or upper 109 price zone. However, the Euro is not a strong currency right now so caution is necessary. Should it regain its traction, expect resistance at 112.00, 112.88 and 114.01. Beyond that it's likely to move on up to the top of the long-term trading range at 115.69. On the weekly chart, it's important to remember that the EURJPY has overtaken its downtrend resistance line.

EURUSD had its high point at 1.3862 on Tuesday and it has been dithering and dropping ever since. After the NFP news this morning (a red herring if I ever saw one), price dropped to a low of 1.3545 so far, below its rather strong support at 1.3573 and below Monday's low of 1.3593. Next strong support is at 1.3500—quite a bit further down—and then 1.3435. At 1.35, I'd expect buyers to pile in—it's a nice round number, simple to wrap one's mind, if present, around. If 1.3435 doesn't hold it, expect support at 1.3396 and 1.3254. Should the pair manage to rally, and I doubt it will before the end of the day, expect to see resistance at 1.3662, 1.3750 and then beginning at 1.38 up to 1.3862. After that is 1.4060 but it's questionable whether it will ever get there.

GBPJPY managed to push to a spike high yesterday of 132.95 but then dropped this morning to a low of 130.87. The low this week was 1.3001 on Monday. Additional support is at 129.52. This really needs to hold. If it does, the bottom line here is that I'm still waiting to see Guppy touch 134.23 but there is quite a bit of resistance between here and there. If it can do this, the next resistance is at 135.22, 136.24, and 137.79. After that there is very little in the way of resistance until 141.19 (confluence) and then price resistance at 145.98, last April's high.

This pair, too, has broken above its very long-term downtrend line on the weekly chart so let's see if it can follow through.

GBPUSD had its high of 1.6282 yesterday and it's been downhill ever since to a low of 1.6036 this morning. I'm sure buyers will come in around 1.6000; 1.5942/63 would be an even better buy point at the daily flag upper boundary retest, fibo and polarity. Cable could be settling into a trading range between 1.5297 and 1.6300. If so, huah, as they say. There will be many opportunities to make some good pips. Support is here at 1.6037, 1.5960, 1.5830, and 1.5751 (1/25 low). Below that would be the bears firmly in control. Everyone has eyes on resistance of 1.6300. If price successfully overtakes and settles above this then 1.6461 and 1.6878 come into play.

USDCAD wasn't quite as dull this week but volatility is still low. .9838 is a key support level but I'm more interested in .9800/15, near the top of the ending diagonal/wedge pattern I wrote about earlier this week. Any reasonable person at this point would have to say the probability is for lower prices—the moving averages are pointing down, there was a bearish candle formation on the daily chart this week, price drops if anyone says boo, the dollar is dead blah blah. Where is support below .9800? The bottom of the downward sloping rectangle is .9753; the Feb. 2008 low was .9711; the triangle price target is .9549. Resistance? Well let's talk about that next week.

USDCHF came into the week with two key prices to watch—.9300 on the downside and .9784, January's high. During the week, the pair barely managed to stay above that .9300 low. If it drops below, there's weak support at .9278 but you'd probably see a good-sized drop. Yesterday it began a little rally and continued that this morning. However, until it climbs above .9784, there's not a lot to say.


USDJPY: All one can say is blah. There's low daily volatility, price is below all the daily moving averages and pointing down, and the yen is a weak currency. Yesterday's spike high was .8206 but it fell immediately. You can find better pairs to trade.


© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.