USDCHF—still at resistance

1.0630 is the high so far today. As has been true the last few days, moving averages are proving to be resistance. The 10- and 21-day SMA are both around 1.0627. A short here could have a tight stop. If it can cleanly close above these then one would probably want to try a long for a potential target of 1.0763. The 100 SMA is still serving as support, currently at 1.0567.

Here's the daily chart:













© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—near key support

I'm still long from 1.3308.

From the high yesterday of 1.3679 the pair has dropped to a low of 1.3492 so far today. This is still a support area but it's quite a bit below the confirmed double bottom price of 1.3591. It doesn't look as though the pair is going to get above 1.3692, the high Monday.

1.3467/77 is a strong support area for this pair. It's .618 of the move up from 1.3267 to 1.3692 as well as being the location of the 21 SMA on the daily chart. Just below from 1.3430 up is strong price support going back to 2009. If it begins to drop below, I'd sell (my long will be profit stopped out at 1.3463). On the other hand if the current candle forming on the chart makes a hammer, I may add to my long.

Here's the three-hour chart:

















© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

USD Index

Taking a look at the dollar index, I noted on April 8th that the index needs to climb above 82 for one to make a strong bullish case. It hasn't done that yet and the chart is messy—as many of them are—with the four doji before the bullish candle yesterday. Yesterday's high, though, was 80.19 which was below that of 80.51 the day before. It's low wasn't quite as low at 80.15 compared to 80.03 Wednesday. The bottom line is that the index must stay above 80.03 which is approximately a .786 retracement of the move from the low March 17 (79.51) to the high on March 25 of 82.18. Ideally, the pair will close above 80.51 today. This messiness will clear up at some point.











© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPUSD—in triangle

A nice deep dip took out what was left of my long for +10 pips. I'm really glad I took profits yesterday on most of it.

The 3-hour chart is a tad messy. Yesterday's high of 1.5523 was followed by a drop to 1.5366 from which it has rebounded to 1.5474. There's a triangle formation and the pair may break out of it today or early next week.

The hammer low that I wrote about yesterday on the hourly chart was at 1.5386. This has technically dipped below that so it's bearish behavior. On the other hand, it wasn't by much so the area essentially has served as support again today. Also in play is the fact that the pair is still in an uptrend from the double bottom lows of 1.4785 and 1.4798 and that it's nowhere close to achieving the price target from that double bottom. Weigh this against the fact that it could be a wave four correction playing out and you're basically left with no clear answer as to direction.

If you're aggressive, which I sometimes am, you'd want to short. Overall I'm bearish on this pair. However, my plan, for the moment, is to wait for some definitive action from the triangle. Dropping below the 1.5366 or above the 1.5523 would be significant.

Here's the three-hour chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPUSD—update

Although it's up from its lows this morning, I've taken some more profits at +123 pips.
Now the pair has to exceed 1.5523 to make bulls at all comforable.

USDCHF—met strong resistance

My long from 1.0538 stopped out at breakeven yesterday. The pair has fallen back from its high of 1.0613 today, right at the level I blogged about yesterday where I said it would run into serious resistance from the moving averages. So it did. Had I been more alert to it this morning I would have shorted. I may still if it can get another little bounce and then falter there. I'd take another long if it could close neatly above that.

Basically, though, the USD is still trying to find a direction and its dip below 80.08 yesterday was disappointing to dollar bulls. However neither the pound or the Euro really were able to take advantage of that weakness so things are still unclear.

With the Swissy, the 100SMA on the daily chart seems to be providing support at 1.0509 (low so far today is 1.0513). The 200 daily SMA 1.0466 and the 4/1 low at 1.0435 are additional support. If it can get above 1.0613 (cleanly and decisively) then 1.0763 is possible.

Here's the daily chart:













© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—a sorry pair

I'm still in my long from 1.3308. With a doji on the daily chart from Tuesday, the pair dropped to a low of 1.3522 so far today, taking it below the low of earlier this week. Not good. Also bearish is that it hasn't been able to achieve its early week high of 1.3692. I'll write again what I've already written several times—you have to be careful with this pair because of the cyclical pressures on it as well as negative sentiment in general. The 1.3692 high could have been part of a wave four formation and while there may be a slight push higher (possibly 1.3656), it could then drop further, picking up its overall downtrend. If so, shorting from that level would be the right way to go.

I wrote yesterday that the double bottom at 1.3267/83 was confirmed at 1.3591. Now that it has dropped to 1.3522 is it still plausible that it might achieve its profit target from this? If so, it's going to have to definitively close above 1.3692 and soon. If you believe that's possible a long is the way to go with stops below 1.3522. Since it's currently offered at 1.3544, that's a very tight stop. But caution is the watch word. Certainly a drop below 1.3509/.3485 would be devestating to the bulls.















© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.