Damned if USDCHF did not find a new low at .8651, not too far below the prior low. Is it a retest of the low before a rally? Could be, but don't bet the bank on it. Price did not complete the symmetrical triangle I wrote about yesterday before breaking below—this indicates weakness and a potential price of .8537.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Showing posts with label usdchf. Show all posts
Showing posts with label usdchf. Show all posts
Friday, April 29, 2011
Thursday, April 28, 2011
USDCHF—struggling
Two days ago, USDCHF fell to a low of .8671 just above S2 of the weekly pivot calculation. As I wrote then, the low formed a hammer candle at weak support and there was positive divergence on the three-hour chart. The pair then rose to .8834 and dropped to .8689. On the one-hour chart, this looks clear as a potential ABC pattern. Leg C of this would be .8790 if C=.618 of A, and .8852 if it should equal A, or .8953 if 1.618A. The pair has only managed to rally to .8761 and here it is struggling.
The pair also appears to be coiling within a triangle. If this is a consolidation move and it breaks below it, the potential target is .8537. This aligns with some targets I have from Elliott analysis on monthly and weekly charts. Unfortunately, I have other targets lower than that, down to .7980 from point and figure work and from Elliott. A reader pointed out that a downtrend line drawn off the lows for the past 100 years is coming in but it looks as though the pair is threatening to break that. One would still expect a rally up to at least .8790 as the triangle legs aren't complete.
Interesting price behavior at interesting psychological extremes. Is there anyone who has a positive opinion about the dollar. On the other hand, who is left to sell except some weak hands?
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
The pair also appears to be coiling within a triangle. If this is a consolidation move and it breaks below it, the potential target is .8537. This aligns with some targets I have from Elliott analysis on monthly and weekly charts. Unfortunately, I have other targets lower than that, down to .7980 from point and figure work and from Elliott. A reader pointed out that a downtrend line drawn off the lows for the past 100 years is coming in but it looks as though the pair is threatening to break that. One would still expect a rally up to at least .8790 as the triangle legs aren't complete.
Interesting price behavior at interesting psychological extremes. Is there anyone who has a positive opinion about the dollar. On the other hand, who is left to sell except some weak hands?
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
USDCHF—new low
USDCHF fell to a low of .8671 just above S2 of the weekly pivot calculation. On the three-hour chart, this low formed within a hammer candle. Since the hammer is at weak support and there is positive divergence on the three-hour chart, let us see if the pair can overcome current resistance at .8765. Just above here is the psychological resistance of .8800.
I am almost positive that Bernanke can say something today to assure the dollar will continue to decline.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
I am almost positive that Bernanke can say something today to assure the dollar will continue to decline.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
USDCHF—at wedge support
On the weekly chart, the price has fallen to the bottom of a descending wedge (outlined in red) with the low at 87.46. This is taking place within the downward sloping rectangle. Bulkowski, in his book Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, notes that there should be at least five touches with a minimum duration of three weeks. While wedges can be consolidation patterns of the prevailing trend, falling wedges can resolve to the upside simply because the steepest angle is usually more difficult to maintain. If price does break upward, it can move quickly. This is because energy is being stored up as the price moves become narrower. Note, too, that there is positive divergence on the weekly chart. However, as I wrote yesterday, one can go broke trading positive or negative divergence.
It would take a brave person to suggest buying the dollar at this point. After all, the sentiment against it is extreme. An extreme position never maintains itself in the markets but it can take time to resolve. Still, nothing continues straight down so there should be a reaction at some point.
A weekly close below the lower boundary of the wedge would be bearish. I have a target of .7980 on my daily point & figure chart. On a long-term monthly chart, one can make an Elliott Wave argument for .8500 down to .7500. S1 of the annual pivot is at .8520; S2 and S3 of the monthly pivot is at .8716 and .8513 respectively; S1, S2 and S3 of the weekly pivot are at .8758, .8653, and .8525.
Resistance is at the top of the wedge, near the round number 90. The next resistance is at .9150. This is the daily 50 SMA and this held price on the daily chart in early April.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
It would take a brave person to suggest buying the dollar at this point. After all, the sentiment against it is extreme. An extreme position never maintains itself in the markets but it can take time to resolve. Still, nothing continues straight down so there should be a reaction at some point.
A weekly close below the lower boundary of the wedge would be bearish. I have a target of .7980 on my daily point & figure chart. On a long-term monthly chart, one can make an Elliott Wave argument for .8500 down to .7500. S1 of the annual pivot is at .8520; S2 and S3 of the monthly pivot is at .8716 and .8513 respectively; S1, S2 and S3 of the weekly pivot are at .8758, .8653, and .8525.
Resistance is at the top of the wedge, near the round number 90. The next resistance is at .9150. This is the daily 50 SMA and this held price on the daily chart in early April.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Thursday, March 10, 2011
USDCHF—dollar slightly stronger
Yesterday's low of.9269 held for a slight rally in the pair up to .9363 so far today. This was near the prior high of .9369 so of course it's stumbling. While the dollar is stronger, the headwinds are formidable.
I did go long again at .9302 with my stop at breakeven. As I wrote yesterday, while the potential loss was 100 pips and that only a high of .9506 offered a decent 2:1 risk reward ratio, my plan was to move my stop to breakeven stop with a move of 30 pips.
Resistance is at .9363, .9506, .9586 and .9650. Support is at .9300, .9269, .9224 and .9202.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
I did go long again at .9302 with my stop at breakeven. As I wrote yesterday, while the potential loss was 100 pips and that only a high of .9506 offered a decent 2:1 risk reward ratio, my plan was to move my stop to breakeven stop with a move of 30 pips.
Resistance is at .9363, .9506, .9586 and .9650. Support is at .9300, .9269, .9224 and .9202.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Wednesday, March 9, 2011
USDCHF—.618 holding for now
The pair has touched a low of .9269, .618 of the recent move up and the point where it took out my long position at breakeven.
Now I need to decide whether to enter again at .9300. The potential loss is 100 pips. Resistance is at .9360, .9506, .9586 and .9650. Only .9506 offers a decent 2:1 risk reward ratio but I can set a breakeven stop with a move of 30 pips or so. I can also watch price action at the .9300 mark and see if momentum provides a better clue. The reason I'd consider getting back in is the reason I went long in the first place. The dollar may have touched an important low. In additon, it looks as though the .618 will hold. We'll see.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Now I need to decide whether to enter again at .9300. The potential loss is 100 pips. Resistance is at .9360, .9506, .9586 and .9650. Only .9506 offers a decent 2:1 risk reward ratio but I can set a breakeven stop with a move of 30 pips or so. I can also watch price action at the .9300 mark and see if momentum provides a better clue. The reason I'd consider getting back in is the reason I went long in the first place. The dollar may have touched an important low. In additon, it looks as though the .618 will hold. We'll see.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
USDCHF—3 hour
Yesterday I bought this pair at .9269. It had a nice rise overnight but we'll have to see what happens as NorAm wakes up and weighs in. It's more than possible that some big organization in the USA, i.e. how do you spell central bank here, will beat the dollar down again as soon as it sees that it has rallied.
On the hourly chart (not shown), there's a completed evening star formation. The same thing could be in the process of forming on this chart. If so, support is at .9300 (.382 and prior price low), .9285, and .9269. The latter is the .618 of the recent move up and near where I bought but I've moved my stop to breakeven so I'd be out.
Resistance is at .9360, just above the recent high and at the top of the rectangle and near a speed line. After that it's at .9506, .9586 and .9650.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Yesterday I bought this pair at .9269. It had a nice rise overnight but we'll have to see what happens as NorAm wakes up and weighs in. It's more than possible that some big organization in the USA, i.e. how do you spell central bank here, will beat the dollar down again as soon as it sees that it has rallied.
On the hourly chart (not shown), there's a completed evening star formation. The same thing could be in the process of forming on this chart. If so, support is at .9300 (.382 and prior price low), .9285, and .9269. The latter is the .618 of the recent move up and near where I bought but I've moved my stop to breakeven so I'd be out.
Resistance is at .9360, just above the recent high and at the top of the rectangle and near a speed line. After that it's at .9506, .9586 and .9650.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
USDCHF—moving on up
The Swissy found some energy this morning and appears to be making another run for the prior .9784 high that it just missed making on the 11th. Perhaps this time it can overtake it.The bull flag has a target of about .9950 and 1.0148 if you run it off the daily with the flagpole beginning at .9329. Between those two would be resistance at 1.0067. I'm still long from .9444 and added another long position on Monday at .9674.
This is taking place within a general dollar strenthening. Let's see how long it lasts.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
This is taking place within a general dollar strenthening. Let's see how long it lasts.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Friday, February 11, 2011
World Money Show
I’m attending the World Money Show in Orlando until tomorrow so I won’t be posting anymore today. It’s always good for a currency trader to get out and listen to people who trade other markets.
As usual when I go away, there's some interesting price action going on with the currency pairs. It will be interesting to see how USDCHF fares as it approaches .9783.
See you Monday.
As usual when I go away, there's some interesting price action going on with the currency pairs. It will be interesting to see how USDCHF fares as it approaches .9783.
See you Monday.
Wednesday, February 9, 2011
USDCHF—more resistance
Swissy managed to climb above the resistance line and the .618 retracement of last week's move down (.9610) to a high of .9661. It has started to stumble a bit and may be forming an evening star candle formation on the three-hour chart. This isn't certain until the current candle closes. .9543/24 is a likely support since it's fib confluence and the prior low. Below that is .9463, .9424, .9331, and .9301.
.9784 is still the number to watch on the upside. I wrote yesterday that the only real resistance was .9688 so it needs to get through this. If it can do so and close above .9784, then it's possible it can get to 1.0280 or more. I have a target on my three-hour Point & Figure chart of 1.0250 which won't be invalidated until .9300 is broken.
I'm still long from .9444 and added another position yesterday at .9578.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
.9784 is still the number to watch on the upside. I wrote yesterday that the only real resistance was .9688 so it needs to get through this. If it can do so and close above .9784, then it's possible it can get to 1.0280 or more. I have a target on my three-hour Point & Figure chart of 1.0250 which won't be invalidated until .9300 is broken.
I'm still long from .9444 and added another position yesterday at .9578.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
USDCHF—resistance
A few minutes ago, Swissy whacked its head on a speed line coming in at .9603. So now it's going to be interesting to see what happens because, as I wrote yesterday, it's just above the top of the range it's been hovering in lately and the .618 of last week's move down is .9610. Given the beating the dollar is taking lately I'm not sure it can pull off a close above here but here's looking at you, kid.
Support is at this morning's low of .9524 (just beneath the recent range) then .9463, .9424, .9331, and the old bugaboo, .9301. .9784 is the number to watch on the upside. The only real resistance between here and there is .9688. If it can maintain this rally and close above .9784, then it's possible it can get to 1.0280 or more. I have a target on my three-hour Point & Figure chart of 1.0250 which won't be invalidated until .9300 is broken.
I'm still long from .9444 but I took some partial profits a few minutes ago for +126 pips.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Support is at this morning's low of .9524 (just beneath the recent range) then .9463, .9424, .9331, and the old bugaboo, .9301. .9784 is the number to watch on the upside. The only real resistance between here and there is .9688. If it can maintain this rally and close above .9784, then it's possible it can get to 1.0280 or more. I have a target on my three-hour Point & Figure chart of 1.0250 which won't be invalidated until .9300 is broken.
I'm still long from .9444 but I took some partial profits a few minutes ago for +126 pips.
Here's the three-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Monday, February 7, 2011
USDCHF—narrow range
Swissy is caught in a narrow range, just below resistance, which has been going on since Friday's high. This is generally bullish so let's see if the pair can sustain a close over .9598. A sustained close below the range, .9531, will be a warning signal.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USDCHF—weekly chart
As I wrote on Friday, USDCHF has two key prices to watch—.9300 on the downside and .9784, January's high. Last week the pair barely managed to stay above that .9300 low. So far this morning the Swissy has rallied to .9598. The .618 of last week's move down is .9610 so one would want to monitor price behavior and momentum here.
On the weekly chart, the fall from the large triangle still weighs heavily on this pair and it's not unreasonable to argue for lows down to .9000 and possibly lower. However, the declining wedge is interesting on the chart as prices are most likely to break upward from here since the steepest angle is the least sustainable. Note, though, that the lower boundary for the wedge is around .9250. There's also bullish divergence from RSI although lots of divergence is around these days.
I'm long from last week but I'm taking some profits. Still the pair is worth monitoring and if it can close over .9784, then huah as they say. If one then argued that on the weekly chart this is an ABC correction within a larger downward move, it's possible the pair could correct to 1.0280 or more.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
On the weekly chart, the fall from the large triangle still weighs heavily on this pair and it's not unreasonable to argue for lows down to .9000 and possibly lower. However, the declining wedge is interesting on the chart as prices are most likely to break upward from here since the steepest angle is the least sustainable. Note, though, that the lower boundary for the wedge is around .9250. There's also bullish divergence from RSI although lots of divergence is around these days.
I'm long from last week but I'm taking some profits. Still the pair is worth monitoring and if it can close over .9784, then huah as they say. If one then argued that on the weekly chart this is an ABC correction within a larger downward move, it's possible the pair could correct to 1.0280 or more.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Thursday, February 3, 2011
USDCHF—possibly basing
On the three-hour chart, the Swissy had three candles with lows from .9329 to .9333 yesterday. Since this is higher than the prior lows of .9323 on Jan. 3 and .9301 on 12/31, perhaps the pair really is trying to base. Whether it will be successful at that or not is a separate question. The pair needs to climb above .9783 which is quite a ways off—the high so far today is a spike to .9525. As I wrote yesterday, with the monthly triangle break down hanging over it, things don't look great. Still, there might be a run t .9600 or so. Support is at .9323, .9301 and a speed line at .9278. Below that is tohu-bohu.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
USDCHF—looks weak
USDCHF bulls are not having a good time. Price is below the 10, 20, 50, 100 and 200 daily moving averages. The 10 EMA on the monthly chart, which has been roughly capping the last few months, is well above price at .9886. Its low so far today has been .9321, very close to the prior low at .9301. There's a short-term speed line at .9278. If there's a rally coming it better show itself soon.
I wrote at the beginning of January that there's a seasonal tendency for the USD to rally against the Swiss franc in January. Prices since 1982 show that the pair has gone up 20 times and down 9 times. Not that you could have made much money with it but this January, unbelievably enough, was number 21. It closed on Dec. 31 at .9345 and closed Jan. 31 at .9429. The high was .9784 for the month.
I also wrote that the monthly chart looks grim and it still does. The pair fell from its monthly triangle in September and then below the October doji low of .9463. Support is at .9301 and the psychological .9200 but the potential downside target for the triangle is .9072.
Only a close back inside the triangle around 1.0192 would change the longer-term outlook. Nearer term, a close above .9783 would upset the bears since there were probably a fair number of shorts established in the .9450 to .9500 range.
Here's the monthly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
I wrote at the beginning of January that there's a seasonal tendency for the USD to rally against the Swiss franc in January. Prices since 1982 show that the pair has gone up 20 times and down 9 times. Not that you could have made much money with it but this January, unbelievably enough, was number 21. It closed on Dec. 31 at .9345 and closed Jan. 31 at .9429. The high was .9784 for the month.
I also wrote that the monthly chart looks grim and it still does. The pair fell from its monthly triangle in September and then below the October doji low of .9463. Support is at .9301 and the psychological .9200 but the potential downside target for the triangle is .9072.
Only a close back inside the triangle around 1.0192 would change the longer-term outlook. Nearer term, a close above .9783 would upset the bears since there were probably a fair number of shorts established in the .9450 to .9500 range.
Here's the monthly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
USDCHF—second test of .9400
Since yesterday, the Swissy has made two tests of the .9400 psychological barrier on the three-hour chart. If it loses this fight, the next support is the 12/31 low of .9301. Beneath that are price targets in the .9000 area.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Monday, January 24, 2011
USDCHF—taking a beating
It looks as though even though USDCHF had a potentially bullish week last week with a longish lower shadow and even though there was a bull flag on the daily chart that targeted 1.0388, the pair is getting beaten up this morning. .9486 was the .618 retracement of the move up to .9784 and the low this morning so far is .9473.
Closing below .9432/19 threatens a return to .9300 and brings back into play price targets for additional lows.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Closing below .9432/19 threatens a return to .9300 and brings back into play price targets for additional lows.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Thursday, January 13, 2011
USDCHF—retreating
The dip down to .9617 was below the short-term uptrend line but RSI has not yet broken below its uptrend line. I closed my long from .9490 at .9679 (+189 pips). I have one long left from .9338.
As I pointed out in my post on the Cable, the Swissy and Cable look as though they're finally diverging again (they don't usually move in correlation as they have been in the short-term lately).
The Swissy was battling fierce resistance in a zone to .9860. Tuesday's chart showed five waves, so this is likely a correction. The fifth wave at a high of .9784 was just beyond the projected .9760.
If this is an ABC correction, then A's length was 121 pips (.9783 to .9662 yesterday) and B ended at .9764. This implies a zigzag correction with C now projected at 1.618 that of A for .9568. That lines up with price support at .9605 and .9587. Let's see how it behaves there. When pairs rise quickly as this one did, there's not a lot of support built up so if it drops below .9587, there's minor support at .9525 but then there's not a lot to prevent it falling back to the gloomy .9300 lows.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
As I pointed out in my post on the Cable, the Swissy and Cable look as though they're finally diverging again (they don't usually move in correlation as they have been in the short-term lately).
The Swissy was battling fierce resistance in a zone to .9860. Tuesday's chart showed five waves, so this is likely a correction. The fifth wave at a high of .9784 was just beyond the projected .9760.
If this is an ABC correction, then A's length was 121 pips (.9783 to .9662 yesterday) and B ended at .9764. This implies a zigzag correction with C now projected at 1.618 that of A for .9568. That lines up with price support at .9605 and .9587. Let's see how it behaves there. When pairs rise quickly as this one did, there's not a lot of support built up so if it drops below .9587, there's minor support at .9525 but then there's not a lot to prevent it falling back to the gloomy .9300 lows.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
USDCHF—still fighting
I'm still long from .9338 and .9490 but am considering lightening up by perhaps closing the .9490 long. Yesterday's high was .9784 and it has since pulled back to a low of .9691 this morning. On the 30-minute chart the low formed a hammer candle. This is a support level, albeit not a particularly strong one, so let's see if it can hold. Both the Swissy and Cable have been rising and as their correlation is usually negative on a daily or longer basis. Therefore, one will probably continue in its direction while the other falls.
As I wrote yesterday, the Swissy is in a strong resistance zone continuing up through .9860. In the five waves I traced out on yesterday's chart, wave five equaled wave one at .9688. Given it's almost pulled back to this, there could be an ABC correction beginning or wave five isn't over. (Elliott Wave is so NOT definitive which is why you can't trade it). Another way using EW theory to predict the end of wave five is to take the amount between wave one and three (407 pips from 9301 to 9708), multiply it by .382 and use that to project wave five from the bottom of wave four (.9605). That price target is .9760. In any case, one can see why there's resistance here.
Support is at .9605/00 and .9562/41.
No chart until something changes.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
As I wrote yesterday, the Swissy is in a strong resistance zone continuing up through .9860. In the five waves I traced out on yesterday's chart, wave five equaled wave one at .9688. Given it's almost pulled back to this, there could be an ABC correction beginning or wave five isn't over. (Elliott Wave is so NOT definitive which is why you can't trade it). Another way using EW theory to predict the end of wave five is to take the amount between wave one and three (407 pips from 9301 to 9708), multiply it by .382 and use that to project wave five from the bottom of wave four (.9605). That price target is .9760. In any case, one can see why there's resistance here.
Support is at .9605/00 and .9562/41.
No chart until something changes.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
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