Yesterday afternoon I took partial profits on my short from .8842 at +58 pips. The remainder was then taken out in last evening's spike up for +15 pips. I had one other short from yesterday at .8764 which is still intact and I added another today at .8753.
.8737 is 50% of the move from .9406 to .8067 so I'd expect some stalling here. The low so far has been .8742. There's also a short-term uptrend line at .8717 so the pair really needs to break below the .88 level to resume its downtrend. It also needs to break below 40 in RSI.
The pair closed down yesterday which is negative but you don't need me to tell you that. Another down day for gold will probably mean another down day for this commodity currency as well. Time and price are out of synch as I blogged about yesterday. However, there are still a lot of people long the Aussie who don't want to give up. On the hourly chart, the candles are forming smaller real bodies and throwing off shadows. This hints at indecision. Remember there is still a confirmed double bottom with a price target of .9030. A stop and reverse has to remain a possibility.
Resistance is at .8814, .8859, .8895 (.618 retracement of .9406 to .8067, polarity, near daily speed line), .9000,.9035, .9117, and .9176. Support is at .8737/17, .8686, .8582, .8550, .8495/88, and .8400.
I'll have to post the chart later since I need to reboot.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
EURUSD—B wave
It's likely that yesterday's high of 1.2467 will hold for another day or so as long as Euro continues to work out its short-term drop within the larger weekly correction. Yesterday's close was negative and one can see that the recent rally could be an A wave of an ABC correction with B underway. There's negative divergence on the three-hour chart (which will work itself out as the B wave continues).
An attractive target is 1.2172 which is 50% of the move up from 1.1876 to 1.2467. It's also polarity and has recently been an area of support. As a result, after taking partial profits at +100 pips, I just added to my short from yesterday. So I'm short from 1.2379 and 1.2267.
Support is at 1.2250, 1.2200, 1.2167/50, 1.2117, and 1.2045. Resistance is at 1.2355, 1.2467, 1.2525, 1.2673, 1.2701, and 1.2741.
I can't get a chart into blogger which will require rebooting on my part so I'll post it later.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
An attractive target is 1.2172 which is 50% of the move up from 1.1876 to 1.2467. It's also polarity and has recently been an area of support. As a result, after taking partial profits at +100 pips, I just added to my short from yesterday. So I'm short from 1.2379 and 1.2267.
Support is at 1.2250, 1.2200, 1.2167/50, 1.2117, and 1.2045. Resistance is at 1.2355, 1.2467, 1.2525, 1.2673, 1.2701, and 1.2741.
I can't get a chart into blogger which will require rebooting on my part so I'll post it later.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Monday, June 21, 2010
GBPJPY—update
I took some partial profits as the pair is nearing the uptrend line on the hourly chart for +118 pips. As you can see on the chart, I also established some new shorts. I've moved the stop to breakeven so I may lose them but the pressure is downward for now. However if it bounces from the uptrend line this may change.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPJPY—Weekly
The weekly chart of the Guppy shows the 13EMA has capped it three times in the last six weeks. Looking back prior to that however, one can see that when the pair exceeded the EMA it went to the top of the corrective rectangle before dropping back. So one could short as I did this morning at
135.48 or wait until the pair reaches 141.50/142. In either case, the stop can be tight. Mine's already at breakeven but I may add another position depending on price action in the next hour or so.
At 142 there is additional resistance from the daily chart with a speed line and a downtrend line from Aug. '09. The momentum, as represented by RSI on the weekly chart, isn't showing a lot of oomph. That will have to change if there's going to be a correction back to the 163 area. Regardless, that's tomorrow's problem.
Support is at 133.54, 132.69, 130.42, 129.89, 129.08, 127.66 and 126.73. Then there's the bottom of the weekly channel at 122.90. Resistance is at 136.03, 136.48, 137.67, 137.99, 140.34, 141.50, and 142.00. If it breaks above that then I'll put out new resistance levels.
Here's the weekly chart. You can't see my trade from 135.48 because I use a different charting package for longer term charting:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
135.48 or wait until the pair reaches 141.50/142. In either case, the stop can be tight. Mine's already at breakeven but I may add another position depending on price action in the next hour or so.
At 142 there is additional resistance from the daily chart with a speed line and a downtrend line from Aug. '09. The momentum, as represented by RSI on the weekly chart, isn't showing a lot of oomph. That will have to change if there's going to be a correction back to the 163 area. Regardless, that's tomorrow's problem.
Support is at 133.54, 132.69, 130.42, 129.89, 129.08, 127.66 and 126.73. Then there's the bottom of the weekly channel at 122.90. Resistance is at 136.03, 136.48, 137.67, 137.99, 140.34, 141.50, and 142.00. If it breaks above that then I'll put out new resistance levels.
Here's the weekly chart. You can't see my trade from 135.48 because I use a different charting package for longer term charting:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
AUDUSD—some conflicting signals
Picking up the AUDUSD where I left off on Thursday….the pair reached a high of .8859 this morning. I sold at .8842 after it started to falter. This was an attractive level for selling although it gave me some heartburn to do so, primarily because there are some conflicting signals on the charts. I've already moved stops to breakeven. Justification for selling was that the faltering began just under .8895. That price is a .618 retracement of the entire move down from .9406 to .8067 as well as being polarity and near a speed line on the daily chart. That's good resistance. There's also some negative divergence on the hourly chart. But we'll see. For a pair I've taken hundreds of pips in profit from this month, I'm not going to be too unhappy if I'm stopped out at breakeven. If I am, then looking closer at momentum will be the key to deciding what to do.
What about the conflicting signals? The pair is forming bullish candles without much in the way of lower shadows. The USD looks as though it's correcting. Gold hasn't really started declining. And remember there was a confirmed double bottom on the chart. The price target for that is .9030. Another potential target is close below that which is the 200 day MA at .8983. I've also had recent buy signals on my point and figure chart. So those are reasons to reverse if price starts back up with good momentum.
One other note. Price moved down from the high of .9406 in November to a low of .8067 on 25 May. This took 190 days calendar days or 73% of the time of the up move from early March '09 to November '09. The high today of .8859 is an almost .618 retracement (which would be .8895). It achieved this in 27 days or only 14% of the time it took to drop. Let's see, a retracement in price of essentially .618 in 14% of the time. Does something seem out of whack?
Resistance is at .8895, .8859, .9000,.9035, .9117, and .9176. Support is at 88.00, .8728/07, .8686, .8582, .8550, .8495/88, and .8400.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
What about the conflicting signals? The pair is forming bullish candles without much in the way of lower shadows. The USD looks as though it's correcting. Gold hasn't really started declining. And remember there was a confirmed double bottom on the chart. The price target for that is .9030. Another potential target is close below that which is the 200 day MA at .8983. I've also had recent buy signals on my point and figure chart. So those are reasons to reverse if price starts back up with good momentum.
One other note. Price moved down from the high of .9406 in November to a low of .8067 on 25 May. This took 190 days calendar days or 73% of the time of the up move from early March '09 to November '09. The high today of .8859 is an almost .618 retracement (which would be .8895). It achieved this in 27 days or only 14% of the time it took to drop. Let's see, a retracement in price of essentially .618 in 14% of the time. Does something seem out of whack?
Resistance is at .8895, .8859, .9000,.9035, .9117, and .9176. Support is at 88.00, .8728/07, .8686, .8582, .8550, .8495/88, and .8400.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
EURUSD—Weekly
The weekly chart shows the Euro correcting. There is resistance coming in at two points which should cap the up move. The first is the downtrend line coming in at 1.2741. Close to this is the weekly 13 EMA which has been supporting or capping since early May. This is currently at 1.2701. However, I don't expect it will get there all at once—there will probably be another correction, possibly to 1.2167—before Euro sees 1.27. The high so far today (as of 10:03 AM EST) is 1.2467. There's still an abundance of negative sentiment around the Euro and even this morning's strong US equity market open hasn't lifted it.
Support is at 1.2349, 1.2203 (20 Daily SMA), 1.2167/50, 1.2117 and 1.2045/25. Resistance (short-term) is at 1.2467, 1.2525, 1.2673, 1.2701 and 1.2741.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Support is at 1.2349, 1.2203 (20 Daily SMA), 1.2167/50, 1.2117 and 1.2045/25. Resistance (short-term) is at 1.2467, 1.2525, 1.2673, 1.2701 and 1.2741.
Here's the weekly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
USD Index—Daily
OK, now that the USD Index made the high that I blogged about throughout May, it is correcting downward. How far could it go?
Using a simple correction of down to the uptrend line would target 83.75. Using Elliott Wave (EW), one could expect a correction to take an ABC formation with A already underway. One guideline (not a rule) is that the prior fourth wave low could be a target which would be 85.13. That would also be about 75% of the move up from the May 10th hammer low at 84.16. There would then be a move up for wave B and then wave C would take it down further, possibly to the uptrend line. As it unfolds over the next few days, I'll be able to refine this. There's an EW count on the weekly chart that hints it could go lower but let's not worry about that yet. Finally, one could look at a 50% retracement of the move up from November which would bring it to 81.44 but that’s too extreme for right now.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Using a simple correction of down to the uptrend line would target 83.75. Using Elliott Wave (EW), one could expect a correction to take an ABC formation with A already underway. One guideline (not a rule) is that the prior fourth wave low could be a target which would be 85.13. That would also be about 75% of the move up from the May 10th hammer low at 84.16. There would then be a move up for wave B and then wave C would take it down further, possibly to the uptrend line. As it unfolds over the next few days, I'll be able to refine this. There's an EW count on the weekly chart that hints it could go lower but let's not worry about that yet. Finally, one could look at a 50% retracement of the move up from November which would bring it to 81.44 but that’s too extreme for right now.
Here's the daily chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
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