EURJPY—found support

EURJPY seems to have found support at the bottom of the upward sloping channel (or bear flag on the daily chart). Its low overnight was 123.24, a few pips above the next support level. My short from 125.03 profit stopped out at 124.15 for + 88 pips. I have not re-entered long—I'll wait for a pullback and see if this rally will have any legs. The other issue is that 124.15/20 is a confluence level of fib calculations so I want to see what it does here.

Resistance is at 125.20, 125.31, 125.88, 126.39 and 126.90, and 127.02. 127.02 (50% of move down from 134.38 to 119.66). Support is at 1.2401, 123.24, 122.34, 121.37 and 120.30.

Here's the three-hour chart. Forgetting about the upward channel for the moment, you can also see the range over the last several weeks from 119.66 to 125.25:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—at support

As I wrote last week, the 1.3651 to 1.3697 area is good support for Euro because of fib confluence. It touched a low of 1.3649 just now. Depending on price action, and more importantly momentum, either a short or a long could be in the cards. My remaining long from 1.3587 profit-stopped out at +80 pips so I'm flat.

Next support is at 1.3635 (the top of the triangle it broke up from). After that, support is at 1.3561, 1.3531, and 1.3435. If it turns up again, look for resistance at 1.3721/26, 1.3796, 1.3839, and 1.4026.

Here's the three-hour chart:




















© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURJPY—update

I took partial profits at +85 pips from my short at 125.03. Currently, the pair is finding some support with a low so far of 124.08, exactly where I wrote earlier it would find support. The reason that's important to me is that the pair is "behaving" as it were, according to my analysis. If it should start to bounce seriously from here, it will probably take another run at that 125.25 top. Obviously, the rest of my trade is profit-stopped. Depending on price action, I might take another short if it gets back up to the 125 level.

If it confidently drops below 124, look for support at 123.17, 122.59, 121.89 and 121.47. If the pair clears 125.25, it could have a fairly easy climb up to 126.39. Next would be 127.02 (50% of move down from 134.38 to 119.66).


© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

USDCAD—Weekly chart

You can see on the weekly chart I ran on Saturday that the pair broke its long-term uptrend line from late 2007. This isn't good. In addition, the climb from .9058 to 1.3065 was 4,007 pips. The retracement of that climb to the Friday close of 1.0193 is 71.6%. Ouch.

Support may come in at 1.0155 which was the low last week. The pair may range for a while in between this and 1.0209. The range is best seen on the one- or three-hour chart. Not a great range as to potential pips but at the top and bottom the stop can be tight. I may try a trade.

If the pair continues to drop there may be a bounce at the 75% retracement or 1.0060. Otherwise, expect support to come in at .9819, then .9711. On the up side, is 1.0205 (its high so far today is 1.0209), 1.0251, 1.0322, 1.0444, and ha-ha, 1.0500. Well, it could make it.

Here's the weekly chart:


















© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURGBP—back and forth

I keep going long and short, back and forth, on this pair as it continues to send out conflicting signals. Currently, I'm long from .9080 and the last candle on the three-hour chart was bullish as could be. But the pair is approaching .9134, a point it fell back from last week. Just beyond that is .9150, a price it also rejected at the beginning of March and near the .9152/3 highs from the end of November. While the moves since that high look somewhat corrective, this pair isn't out of the woods until it solidly closes above .9150. As a result, I've already moved my stop to just better than breakeven.

Support is at .9045, .9000, .8982, .8920, and .8751. Resistance is at .9134, .9150/3, and .9216. Beyond that is the .9412 high from last October.

Here's the three-hour chart:
























© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPJPY—be flexible

The remainder of my last long stopped136.20 profit-stopped out early this morning at 136.67. I then shorted the pair at 136.58 based on the fact that it faltered three times near the 138 level. As I wrote last week, 137.91 was 50% of the move down from February 17 so it's not surprising that capped it, at least for the moment. The moves, in general, look somewhat corrective so it's possible the pair is getting ready to resume its downtrend. For now, though, it's sitting at support of 136.46. I've moved my stop to breakeven.

Support is at 135.52/45, 134.93, 134.00 and 133.92. Resistance is at 137.20, 138.09, 139.59, and 141.68.

This pair has been tricky lately (some would say it's always tricky) but the way to trade it is to stay flexible and be willing to go both long and short. Some traders have difficulty doing that but if they do it's a good opportunity to ask why.

Here's the three-hour chart:























© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURJPY—malingering

Last we left this pair there was an evening star on the hourly chart and I finally went short at 125.03 despite the momentum not really accelerating to the downside. It has since dropped 63 pips (as of 6:10 AM EST) but it seems to be doing so reluctantly. Sometimes when pairs malinger just below a resistance level, it means they're getting ready to get through it. I have my stop set at +10 so we'll see what happens. Last week there were plenty of mixed signals so I hope we're not in for another week of that.

On the three-hour chart you can see a triangle forming. In EW speak this is bullish as price breaks out upward. It could also be interpreted as a bull pennant. Offsetting this is a somewhat bearish divergence. In addition, if you take .382 of the most recent move down (from 134.38 to 119.66), you have 125.26 so this adds to the resistance it found at the prior top.

Looking at the bigger picture, the pair climbed from Jan to June 2009 but the subsequent correction has eroded that rise quite significantly. If one sees this pair as moving into a horizontal range, then the range extends down to 119.95. A short from the top here could be quite lucrative.

Support is at 124.08, 123.17, 122.59, 121.89 and 121.47. If the pair clears the top of the triangle at 124.80, it could have a fairly easy climb up to 126.39. Next would be 127.02 (50% of move down from 134.38 to 119.66).

Here's the three-hour chart:

















© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.