I'm taking a break from blogging and most trading on Fridays during the summer. If you do trade watch out for lower liquidity,, especially as NY moves towards mid-day.
See you again, Monday.
Friday, June 25, 2010
Positions—update
My short from.8701 is profit-stopped and I took partial profits at +94 pips. It's near a strong support area right now.
GBPUSD finally dropped a bit. Before it did so, it took out my short from 1.5007 at breakeven. I shorted again at 1.4939. I took partial profits at +60 pips. I have a sell order in place if it bounces back up again but with a very tight stop. On the hourly chart it looks suspiciously as though it's an ABC correction with the C leg in play. This pair has been a challenge this week but unless it definitively clears 1.5012, I think it could still head lower.
I'm also short EURGBP and long USDCHF. I'll analyze them on Monday. I have an order in for Euro.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPUSD finally dropped a bit. Before it did so, it took out my short from 1.5007 at breakeven. I shorted again at 1.4939. I took partial profits at +60 pips. I have a sell order in place if it bounces back up again but with a very tight stop. On the hourly chart it looks suspiciously as though it's an ABC correction with the C leg in play. This pair has been a challenge this week but unless it definitively clears 1.5012, I think it could still head lower.
I'm also short EURGBP and long USDCHF. I'll analyze them on Monday. I have an order in for Euro.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Thursday, June 24, 2010
AUDUSD—update
I had a sell order in that was executed at .8701. This was at the level of the short-term uptrend line I wrote about earlier. Price action is a bit raggedy and the market in general seems unfocused so we'll have to see what happens. However, the pair has moved down enough that I've moved my stop to breakeven.
Support is at .8642, .8551, .8506, .8426 and .8345. Resistance is at .8782, .8833, and .8859.
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Support is at .8642, .8551, .8506, .8426 and .8345. Resistance is at .8782, .8833, and .8859.
Here's the one-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPUSD—hourly chart diamond pattern
I have closed out my short from yesterday at -16 pips and my one from 1.5007 is at breakeven. The pair may well head down but there's a rough diamond pattern forming on the hourly chart. When a breakout takes place from a diamond, the movement tends to be fast. Let's see what happens—it could be a stop and reverse will be in order if it breaks above. Perhaps I'll have time to add to my short position if it breaks down. I still tend to believe the pair is going to drop but the market will tell me soon and now I have no risk.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
AUDUSD—back in a range
My short from .8764 profit-stopped at +39 pips.
What's interesting to me about this pair is it's now tiptoeing back into a range I blogged about in detail on June 17 of .8582 to .8674. The low so far this morning has been .8642. That post is at:
(http://forexreflections.blogspot.com/2010/06/audusdyesterdays-behavior-post-mortem.html)
It also broke below its short-term downtrend line from early June and .8737 was roughly the area that held price yesterday. (50% of the move from .9406 to .8067). At best the pair is unstable; at worst, a bigger correction is starting up.
I will probably look to sell rallies, possibly to the short-term uptrend line at .8703, if momentum stays weak as I believe a move back to the confirmation point of the double bottom at .8551 might be in the cards. The rounding top of yesterday's price action on the hourly chart is often a continuation pattern. On the other hand we still have the price potential of the double bottom at .9030 and there's slight positive divergence on the hourly chart.
Once again, this pair requires patience for an entry.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
What's interesting to me about this pair is it's now tiptoeing back into a range I blogged about in detail on June 17 of .8582 to .8674. The low so far this morning has been .8642. That post is at:
(http://forexreflections.blogspot.com/2010/06/audusdyesterdays-behavior-post-mortem.html)
It also broke below its short-term downtrend line from early June and .8737 was roughly the area that held price yesterday. (50% of the move from .9406 to .8067). At best the pair is unstable; at worst, a bigger correction is starting up.
I will probably look to sell rallies, possibly to the short-term uptrend line at .8703, if momentum stays weak as I believe a move back to the confirmation point of the double bottom at .8551 might be in the cards. The rounding top of yesterday's price action on the hourly chart is often a continuation pattern. On the other hand we still have the price potential of the double bottom at .9030 and there's slight positive divergence on the hourly chart.
Once again, this pair requires patience for an entry.
Here's the hourly chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
GBPUSD—break out? fake out?
The pair has rallied to a high so far this morning of 1.5012 (as of 8:03 AM EST). This means it broke over the top of its channel which is currently at 1.4976, over a daily speed line, and over a short-term downtrend line. The 89 SMA is at 1.4975 and GBPUSD is encountering a Fibonacci confluence zone. Regardless of what happens in the next day or so, one can easily see why price would stall here.
Stall or not, I blogged yesterday that I believed this area was a good shorting opportunity. I took a small position yesterday at 1.4969. Early this morning, a sell order was executed at 1.5007. I wrote, that what I was "hoping is that it continues up in price, achieves an RSI reading on the hourly chart of 70 or greater (thus becoming overbought in the short term) and then closes below 70. That would be an ideal sell signal."
The pair did exactly that yesterday afternoon. The result has not been a sustained downward move. This unhappy fact means that either my analysis is flawed or that the analysis is fine but it's not considering all that needs to be considered. Or, still unhappily, that the market is faking me out.
Since I also wrote yesterday that "the possibility of 1.5240/50 can't be ignored if the pair makes a sustained move above 1.4950 so any short would have to have a tight stop," I'm doing that. I'm not quite ready to bail out of my shorts (one is under water and one is positive about 20 pips) but I'm tightening stops and moving the most current one to breakeven while I take another look at this picture.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Stall or not, I blogged yesterday that I believed this area was a good shorting opportunity. I took a small position yesterday at 1.4969. Early this morning, a sell order was executed at 1.5007. I wrote, that what I was "hoping is that it continues up in price, achieves an RSI reading on the hourly chart of 70 or greater (thus becoming overbought in the short term) and then closes below 70. That would be an ideal sell signal."
The pair did exactly that yesterday afternoon. The result has not been a sustained downward move. This unhappy fact means that either my analysis is flawed or that the analysis is fine but it's not considering all that needs to be considered. Or, still unhappily, that the market is faking me out.
Since I also wrote yesterday that "the possibility of 1.5240/50 can't be ignored if the pair makes a sustained move above 1.4950 so any short would have to have a tight stop," I'm doing that. I'm not quite ready to bail out of my shorts (one is under water and one is positive about 20 pips) but I'm tightening stops and moving the most current one to breakeven while I take another look at this picture.
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
EURUSD—.382 retracement
Euro hit a low of 1.2244, three pips above the .382 retracement of the rise from 1.1876 to 1.2467. That may be all she does before she starts upwards again but I still think the 1.2172 target is attractive. That would be 50% retracement. But there's a lot of support at the 1.2244 level—support, Fibonacci confluence, etc.
There's extreme negative sentiment against the Euro. When price dropped again after the rally to 1.2467, it plays into that mindset. If this is a B wave as, I blogged yesterday, then this is a characteristic of them—they're sucker plays. So if you're shorting you have to use tight stops.
I'm short from 1.2379 and 1.2285. I had a short from 1.2267 but it was stopped yesterday for -30 pips.
Support is at 1.2241, 1.2200, 1.2167/50, 1.2117, and 1.2045. Resistance is at 1.2318, 1.2355, 1.2467, 1.2525, 1.2673, 1.2701, and 1.2741.
Here's the 3-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
There's extreme negative sentiment against the Euro. When price dropped again after the rally to 1.2467, it plays into that mindset. If this is a B wave as, I blogged yesterday, then this is a characteristic of them—they're sucker plays. So if you're shorting you have to use tight stops.
I'm short from 1.2379 and 1.2285. I had a short from 1.2267 but it was stopped yesterday for -30 pips.
Support is at 1.2241, 1.2200, 1.2167/50, 1.2117, and 1.2045. Resistance is at 1.2318, 1.2355, 1.2467, 1.2525, 1.2673, 1.2701, and 1.2741.
Here's the 3-hour chart:
© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.
My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.
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