GBPUSD—At top of 3-hour triangle

I'm long from 1.5406 and I just took partial profits of +101 pips. The pair has been is in a symmetrical triangle and just shot up to the top of it, reaching 1.5515. There's quite a bit of resistance from here through 1.5535 to 1.5567/84 (.382 of the 1.5598 to 1.5297 move and the 200 daily SMA). If it can break through this then 1.5703 is possible and then the 1.5998 August 6th high. Here it would find major resistance. Support is at 1.5441, 1.5389/84, 1.5346, 1.5297 (strong), 1.5235, and 1.5132.

Here's the three-hour chart:
















© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

AUDUSD—not much change

I'm still long from .8913 and it's still up over 400 pips as this point but there has been little movement since yesterday. It needs to clear .9364 in order to continue its bullish rise. If it does so then .9406/20/50 will be possible. A break below .9221 would open things up for lower lows but the bears haven't been able to pull that off as of yet.

Resistance is at .9364, .9406, . Support is at .9312/00, .9289, .9207/00, .9185/70, .9092, .9067. .8911, and .8872/61.

No chart until something changes.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—still bearish

Even with the push up to 1.2910, the picture is still bearish for the Euro. It's still shy of last Monday's 1.2919 high. The 1.3335 high was seen by many to be the end of the correction from the 1.5144 to 1.1892 move. As I wrote yesterday, above 1.30 it runs smack into a downtrend line from January of this year. So sellers are hovering about, some selling now and some waiting a bit longer. This makes the lack of real movement since yesterday morning more than understandable. About all we can do right now is wait and see.

Resistance is at 1.2919, 1.3000 and 1.3084 (the January downtrend line). If it does get above 1.3084 then 1.3228/54 are possible. Support is at 1.2794, 1.2676, 1.2644 and 1.2588.

No chart until there's something new to show, i.e. a definitive break above 1.30 or a collapse downwards.

© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—a little rally

Euro has pushed up to 1.2843 this morning and seems to be aiming for last Monday's 1.2919 high. Certainly lots of selling would come in if it gets there so longs at this point might not have much of an upside. I plan to be one of the sellers near 1.29. Support is at 1.2794, 1.2676, 1.2644 and 1.2588.

If Euro broke above 1.2919 it would cause the bears to pause and a break above 1.30 would be a psychological victory for the bulls. Above 1.30, though, runs it smack into a downtrend line from January of this year. I think a further down leg is inevitable but we'll see. Trade the chart, not one's opinion.

You can see on the weekly chart that price action is narrowing. Here's the chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

AUDUSD—bubbling up

I'm still long from .8913 and this has certainly been a happy trade with it up over 400 pips this morning. I've set my profit-stop 300 pips over the entry price.

The pair touched .9334 this morning. This makes the price target on my 3-hour P&F chart of .9420/50 more likely. On the daily price chart, the top of the channel is at .9489. However the pair is overbought (over 70 on RSI) on the three-hour chart and nudging in and out of it on the one-hour chart so a reaction wouldn't be unexpected. More than likely I'd add to my position, especially if it got near .9207. Bulls are beginning to babble about .9851 but that is not anywhere near a sure thing. There's still a lot of bearishness in the charts and this could all be one big bull trap.

Resistance is at .9364, .9406, . Support is at .9312/00, .9289, .9207/00, .9185/70, .9092, .9067. .8911, and .8872/61.

Here's the daily chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPUSD—Hanging in barely

My long from last week stopped out at -40 pips.

Since then the pair has held its own and last week's low of 1.5297 has held. It's right on its weekly uptrend line and still clinging to the .382 retracement. Bulls would like to see it overtake 1.5533 at least. That price would start the bears selling so if it overcame it then that would be positive and make 1.5703 possible. If it cleared that as well then the 1.5998 August 6th high is next. As I wrote last week, this price is seen as the end of a corrective move so there would be major resistance here. Support is at 1.5400, 1.5389/77, 1.5346, 1.5297 (strong), 1.5235, and 1.5132. I've bought a small position at 1.5414. The stop can be tight, just below that last completed doji on the hourly chart below. This may be taken out as the real support is at 1.5297 but if it takes it out price may drop to that and rally anyway, giving another chance for a buy or tolling the bell for further drops.

Here's the one-hour chart:













© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPJPY—Weekly

Guppy is near its weekly chart uptrend line. Despite the fact the overall picture for this pair looks grim, I'd be surprised if there wasn't a bounce given the more optimistic mood in the markets this morning. I bought at 129.47 with a tight stop below the uptrend line on the weekly chart.

Redrawing the downtrend line (in red on the chart below) from the August 2009 high shows a possible price target of 135.33 This might be overly ambitious given the bearish charts for this pair. More likely is 133.70 the high earlier this month. This is between the daily 50 and 100 SMA of 133.04 and 134.02 respectively so those add a little more strength to the resistance. 134.02 is also the .618 retracement of the last move down (137.79 to 127.92). Sellers will come out there so a short might then be attractive. However if they couldn't overcome the buyers then the previous high of 137.709 would look more attractive. Support is at 129.35, 129.10, and 128.58. A break below the uptrend line needs to find support at 128.58 because below that would indicate the downtrend is resuming with 126.73 in sight. Below that is tohu-bohu with 120.00 first and then 118.83.

Here's the weekly chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.