EURGBP—possible evening star

On the daily chart there is the possibility for an evening star candle formation. These patterns require an uptrend with a bullish candle. The second candle is a doji and the third closes well into the first bullish candle. In this case the last bullish candle is rather small. Today is the third candle and no conclusion can be drawn until it is complete. A high above .8419 means the pair is headed higher. The downtrend line on the daily chart is coming in at .8490 where it would make sense to short.

On the hourly chart (not shown) the pair has formed a hammer with a low of .8316. Dipping beneath this low would be suspicious and would be another possible area for a short.

Here's the daily chart:















© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No
part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

AUDUSD—dull

I'm still long from .8593 and the AUDUSD is still basically going nowhere. It did dip to .8683 earlier this morning which is the lowest low since last Thursday although not by much.

There are some conflicting signals on the hourly and three-hour charts. Were I not long I wouldn't be trading this pair this morning because of this. However, looking at the daily chart, one could make the case for a double or triple Elliott Wave correction. There's also a triangle shaping up. The trend line of the triangle would cap price at .8775. I blogged yesterday that the weekly chart showed the 21 EMA at .8773. That would be a price, then, at which point it would make sense to try a short. If it breaks above there then the weekly rectangle would come into play at .8860. This price is the June 21 high and polarity. It's also supported by EW interpretations on the hourly chart which targets price at .8835 and fib retracements. (.8868 is .618 of the .9364 to .8067 move). The confirmed double bottom in this pair never achieved its price objective so just over .90 is also possible. However that's looking less likely. Should the pair begin to drop, .8510, .8316, .8133 and .8067 are support levels.

The bottom line seems to be that waiting for a short at either .8775 or .8860 is the thing to do.

Here's the daily chart:















© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—Bounce

I bought at 1.2550 after the close of the 4AM EST candle.

My reasons for doing so were primarily based on the hourly chart so this should be a short-term trade. The pair appeared to be trying to base at 1.2523, RSI had dipped slightly below 30 and come right back up, and there was positive divergence with RSI. In addition, one could trace five waves down from the high at 1.2722 so the next move could be corrective, in this case up. Euro did bounce rather quickly up but only about 40 pips. However. this was enough to allow me to move my stop to breakeven. I also took partial profits at + 40 pips.

Since the trade is on the hourly chart and thus expected to be short-lived, an easy target is .382 of the move from 1.2722 to 1.2523 which is 1.2599 or .5 of that move which is 1.2623. There's a short-term downtrend line at 1.2590. The move back to 1.26 has brought out sellers so it makes sense that the pair is hesitating here.

Within a larger context than the hourly chart, i.e. daily and weekly, another down move is possible—the issue may become where to go short. If I wasn't long and in profit I'd probably try a small short at 1.26.

Resistance is at 1.2600/14, 1.2740, 1.2765, 1.2800 and 1.3094. Support is at 1.2523, 1.2480, 1.2397, 1.2312 and 1.2152.

Here's the hourly chart:













© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—Weekly

My long from 1.2413 profit-stopped at 1.2554 for + 141 pips.

The weekly chart below shows my Elliott Wave count. The high of 1.2722 on Friday could have been the end of the A wave since it bumped into resistance from the weekly downtrend line. If so, the next move would be down. However it's possible that A could extend further to 1.2765 or 1.3099 so watching price action on the shorter term charts is important.

Here's the weekly chart:











© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

GBPUSD—weekly

My long from 1.5131 stopped at breakeven.

The 20 EMA on the weekly chart has been significant for this pair recently with it capping prices the weeks 4/16, 4/30 and 6/25. The last two weeks price has managed to climb above it but it closed this past Friday just below. The EMA is currently at 1.5064; the high so far today is 1.5086. Until this weekly EMA is definitely behind it, I don't think things look all that positive for the cable. The pair is also caught in a channel that's trending down. 1.5329 is the resistance line of this channel. If price ever gets there it would suggest a short position.

The low this morning of 1.4949 was almost at the price target from the double top I blogged about last week. Its climb up to 1.5086 looks as though it tried to retest the confirmation point of the double top (1.5081). On the shorter term charts the moves look somewhat corrective. This pair bears watching.

Resistance is at 1.5086, 1.5241, 1.5329, 1.5523 and 1.5816. Support is at 1.5017, 1.4949/, 1.4874, 1.4710, 1.4696, 1.4590 and 1.4550.

Here's the weekly chart:











© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

AUDUSD—weekly

I'm still long from .8593. I took partial profits at +130 pips.

There are two things of interest on the weekly chart. First is the 21 EMA at .8773 which seems to be serving as resistance. The other is the small rectangle within with the AUDUSD is trading. The resistance from this is .8860. Since the hourly chart appears to show the pair nearing the end of a C wave (I blogged on this last Thursday and there has been little movement since then) the .8861/81 could be the target. This makes a lot of sense given that .8835 is 1.618 of the A wave on the hourly chart; .8868 is .618 of the .9364 to .8067 move; and .8859 is a June 21 high and polarity and the top of this rectangle.

Here's the weekly chart. My trade doesn’t show on it because I use a different charting package for weekly and monthly charting:











© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

Will post later today

Usually I post in the morning but I have a bit of an emergency this morning so I'll post later today.