AUDUSD—good rally

AUDUSD confirmed the double bottom of .8316/17 (two touches since 30 June) when it cleared.8510 yesterday. It faltered just below the June 30 high of .8566 and dropped to .8450 which was a bit surprising (it would have been more positive if .8510 had held) but yesterday's strong performance has the bulls out.

This may be a corrective move in which case waiting until the pair reaches .8640 would provide a good short entry. Beyond that, one would want to be long if possible. However the immediate challenge is to see if the pair can regain .8510. Gee, that was the first resistance when I posted yesterday about this pair. Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.

Resistance is at .8510, .8565, .8645, .8737, .8861, and .8895. Support is at .8432, .8316, .8133, and .8067.

Here's the three-hour chart:













© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURGBP—another narrow range

EURGBP climbed to a high of .8342 yesterday and has been ranging just below there since. My short yesterday stopped at breakeven obviously.

It has been in a vicious downtrend so this is most likely a corrective pattern rather than a trend reversal. Regular readers know I have no problem trading corrections but I'm not clear on this one so it's best to not trade it—more than one successful trader has said if you don't know what's going on, stay out. It's nibbling at its upward trend line at the moment and RSI has dipped a bit below its upward line. .8380 will be critical and if it starts to falter there then sellers will most likely pile back in.

Resistance is at .8342, .8382/.8400, .8519 and .8594. Support is at .8265, .8218, .8180, .8107/00, .8068, .8000 and .7900.

Here's the three-hour chart:













© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

AUDUSD—update

Stopped at -45 pips. I'm studying it as to whether to go long.

GBPUSD—weekly channel

I'm still long from 1.4918. Cable reached a July 2 high of 1.5230 and, like other pairs, faltered this morning (at 1.5207) when it seemed to be trying to get back to it. There's still a possibility of at least 1.5374 (the weekly downtrend line). After that, it could reach 1.55 or so, the April highs. Also on the weekly chart, it has climbed above the 20 EMA (currently 1.5079) which had capped it the weeks of 4/16, 4/30 and 6/25. The weekly chart doesn't show strong momentum (as represented by RSI) so anyone going long at this point needs to use tight stops.

Resistance is at 1.5374, 1.5523 and 1.5816. Support is at 1.5079, 1.4874, 1.4710, 1.4696, 1.4590 and 1.4550.

Here's the weekly chart. My trade doesn't show on it as I use a different charting package for weekly and monthly charts.











© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

AUDUSD—at resistance

AUDUSD seems to have based at .8316/17 (two touches since 30 June) but it won't be confirmed as a double bottom until it exceeds the high between the two which is at .8510. It's high so far this morning has been .8498.

Since the pair is at resistance I took a small short position earlier this morning at .8478. This allowed me to have a tight stop, the number one thing a trader can do to limit losses. Momentum, as represented by RSI, looks somewhat sluggish, never a good sign. However, until the pair falls below .8432 (the short-term uptrend line) there's no reason to get very excited.

It's possible the pair is setting up a range from .8316 to .8510 in a flat correction. If the pair clears the top at .8510, it's possible AUDUSD is resuming its upward path and may get on track to achieve the price target of .9030 estimated from its double bottom in late May/early June.

Resistance is at .8510, .8565, .8645, .8737, .8861, and .8895. Support is at .8432, .8316, .8133, and .8067.

Here's the three-hour chart:













© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURGBP—narrow range

Another pair that has been stuck in a narrow range since Friday, it may be starting to move. Well one can hope.

I had a small buy order execute at .8281 Friday but I had no enthusiasm for sticking with it over the weekend and closed at break even. The negative divergence on the hourly chart certainly didn't help. I sold this morning at .8304 and have already moved my stop to breakeven.

Just as the Euro may be in an ABC correction, this pair could be as well with the C wave completed. As with the Euro, it ended up between targets—C would have been.8265 if it had been .618 of A or .8326 if equal to A. What needs to happen is for the pair to start to drop, certainly below .8265 and then below .8218. I would have expected it to drop last Friday when it touched .8299 and then RSI fell below 70 on the hourly chart but it didn't. This is suspicious behavior which is why I keep moving stops to breakeven so quickly. However evidence is in favor of shorting as I wrote last week and short I am.

Resistance is at.8326, .8380 and .8400. Support is at .8265, .8218, .8180, .8107/00, .8068, .8000 and .7900.

Here's the one-hour chart:













© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

EURUSD—ranging

The pair has been ranging the last couple of days. I have two longs from 1.2400 and 1.2413. I just took some partial profits at +190 pips.

The high on Friday was 1.2611; the high so far this morning as of 5:14 AM EST was 1.2607. In between the pair dropped to 1.2480, narrowly missing my profit-stop and where, had I been trading, I would have probably added to my position. However, I may get another chance. The pair is just above a Fib confluence zone of 1.2589 and just under a daily speed line. This helps to understand its current struggle to push higher. With a recently completed doji on the hourly chart, much will depend on the behavior of the current candle as far as setting a near-term direction goes.

Assuming this is an Elliott Wave C, price targets were (or are) 1.2517 (.618 the length of A's 591 pips from 1.1876 to 1.2467) or 1.2743 (the length of A). 1.3108 is also possible if C extends to 1.618 that of A.

Price obviously made it above 1.2517. One would expect more of a drop than the intervening 1.2480 so we'll have to see. The current behavior could be a bull flag; if it is then the price target is 1.2944 (1.2611-1.2194=412 added to the breakout price of 1.2532). The May 3 low of 1.2937 lends some evidence for this as a reasonable target. If Euro can get above Friday's high with good momentum, I may add to my positions.

Resistance is at 1.2611, 1.2673, and 1.2743. Support is at 1.2480, 1.2435, 1.2409, and 1.2350. This shows layers of support so if it breaks below those then expect lower.

Here's the hourly chart:













© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.