EURUSD—Coiling

On the three and one-hour charts, Euro is coiling in a symmetrical triangle. From an Elliott point of view, a triangle is a continuation move with a price target around 1.5015. Note that there would be one more leg down on this triangle to complete the E leg. Thus, one could go long if it reaches this, around 1.4790.

There is short-term negative divergence with RSI on the three-hour chart, although longer term, price and RSI remain in an uptrend together. The triangle also followed a broadening pattern. Broadening patterns after highs are often deadly. However, the combination of the broadening pattern and the triangle result in a rough diamond pattern. If this is a diamond, subsequent moves are usually rapid.

Support is at 1.4790, 1.4728/11, 1.4689, 1.4639, 1.4528 and 1.4496. First resistance is 1.4902, then 1.4961 and 1.5000/15. After that, there is 1.5105/16, 1.5163 and a potential price target at 1.5163.

Here's the three-hour chart:












© Dianne Fecteau, 2011. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.