EURUSD—correcting sharply

Euro has fallen back from yesterday's 1.4282 high to a low of 1.4033 this morning, prior to the Non-farm Payroll (NFP) release. This is just below the .382 retracement of the move up from the October 19th low (50% will be 1.3985). It’s market reaction to the more positive NFP number and it may be enough to turn Euro around. I closed one position yesterday at +311 pips. I have one left from 1.3883 which will be profit stopped out at 1.3983.

Looking at the corrective channel on the one-hour chart, one can see price has broken below and has retested. Behavior over the course of the next hour is important to watch. If it regains the corrective rectangle, watch behavior at both the mid-point and the top. If it continues to fall and approaches the bull flag breakout point at 1.3992, one will want to see it rally. Otherwise, expect lower lows. I'll post later.

Here's the hourly chart.












© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.