Monday, March 1, 2010

USDCAD—at support

The pair dropped to 1.0494 overnight, taking out both my long positions. The long from 1.0444 profit stopped out at +60 pips; the one from 1.0534 profit stopped out at +10 pips.

I went long again this morning at 1.0519. It's not completely clear that this pair is going to scale any walls and if it decisively drops much below 1.0494, it would hint at larger drops. I like this price, though, because it may be finding support on a downtrend line coming in from September (sometimes drawing trend lines out into space can give you an idea where price might find support or resistance). I wouldn't look at this alone, of course, but there's also a confluence zone near here and it's polarity. On the one-hour chart there is bullish divergence. Stops can also be tight.

The first hurdle is getting back above 1.0556. If it achieves this, then additional resistance is at 1.0600/14, 1.0681, and 1.0708, 1.0766/81, and 1.0848. Support is at 1.0439/44, 1.0413, 1.0350/70, 1.0250, and 1.0225.

Here's the one-hour chart:




















© Dianne Fecteau, 2010. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without the express written permission of the author.

My purpose in writing this blog is to show you how one trader, me, makes trading decisions and survives while trading Forex. One of the biggest problems I had when I first started trading was trying to apply the “rules” to actual trades. Another was the psychology—limiting losses and letting profits run. If you study my blog, you’ll see how I deal with both those issues. So my writings are not trade recommendations but rather educational in purpose. You have to decide on your own approach to trading. Remember that trading is risky.

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